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Adam Koffler breaks down why Detroit Lions tight end T.J. Hockenson has a chance to be an elite fantasy tight end in 2021 and the overall TE1.
Just two years ago, the Lions used the eighth overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft to select Iowa tight end T.J. Hockenson. In 2021, we're talking about Hockenson potentially taking that next step into the elite tier of tight ends.
It might be hard to supplant Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, or George Kittle at the very top, but if anyone's got a shot this season, it's Hockenson.
Let's take a look at Hockenson's profile to determine how things could break right for him to reach the top of the fantasy mountain.
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2020 Production
After a rookie season where he saw just 59 targets in 12 games (4.9 targets per game), Hockenson eclipsed 100 targets his sophomore season, averaging 6.3 per game. He also went from fourth on the team in red-zone targets (nine) in 2019 to second in red-zone targets (16) in 2020. Marvin Jones Jr. led the team with 21 red-zone targets last season, and he's no longer in Detroit. Neither is Kenny Golladay, the Lions' alpha WR1 the past three seasons.
Hockenson was fourth amongst tight ends in receptions (67), third in receiving yards (723), and ninth in touchdowns (six) last season. Additionally, per PlayerProfiler.com, he finished fourth in yards after catch (328) below just Kelce, Waller, and Noah Fant. His combination of talent, athleticism, and projected high target share should have fantasy managers very excited for his prospects of a breakout campaign in 2021.
2021 Opportunity
Golladay and Jones are gone, and the Lions brought in Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman as their replacements. Williams hasn’t seen more than 69 targets since 2016 when he saw a career-high 119 targets, and Perriman has never seen more than 69 targets in his entire six-year career. Neither guy is suddenly going to become an alpha WR1 at this point in their career, thus making it likely Hockenson takes over as the number one option in the passing game.
What about the Lions’ new quarterback Jared Goff? To many, he might seem like a downgrade from Matthew Stafford. But let’s take a deeper dive into what he does to Hockenson’s fantasy value in 2021. Only four teams targeted the tight end position more than the Los Angeles Rams did over the course of the last two seasons. Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett shared the workload for most games in 2019 and 2020; however, there was a stretch of five games where Higbee operated as the lone tight end with Everett out of the lineup. In those five games, Higbee averaged 8.6 receptions for 104.4 yards on 11.2 targets per game. Just imagine a full season of Goff targeting Hockenson, the de facto top pass-catching option for the Lions.
Now, let’s talk about the Lions as a whole. They won just five games a season ago and they’ve lost Stafford, Golladay, and Jones. They fired head coach Matt Patricia and brought in former assistant head coach/tight ends coach for the New Orleans Saints, Dan Campbell. They also replaced offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell with former Los Angeles Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn. Hunter Henry averaged 6.5 targets per game in Lynn’s system the last two seasons, and that was as the second or third option in the passing game behind Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler. The Chargers also finished within the top-10 the last two seasons in terms of pass attempts per game. With the Lions projected to win just five games in 2021, expect a lot of negative game scripts, which should lead to a high-volume passing attack.
2021 Fantasy Projection
6.5 targets per game in a 17-game season would equate to almost 111 targets. That should be viewed as Hockenson’s floor this season. That would be if Hockenson was competing with an alpha WR1 like Henry was in Los Angeles with Keenan Allen. Neither Tyrell Williams nor Breshad Perriman projects as that alpha, thus giving Hockenson an opportunity to be like a Darren Waller-type. Waller was flanked by Nelson Agholor and Hunter Renfrow in 2020, which led to him finishing as the Raiders’ top receiver with 145 targets. Hockenson may not see 9.1 targets per game, but it’s feasible to expect him to see somewhere in the range of seven to eight per game on an offense that will feature him and be playing from behind quite often. And at 6’5”, 248 lbs., he should quickly become Jared Goff’s favorite red-zone weapon.
Kelce and Waller sit atop the tight end rankings this season, but a case could absolutely be made for Hockenson to finish right below them. It wouldn’t shock me to see him surpass George Kittle as the overall TE3 in 2021.
2021 Projection (based on 17 games): 86 catches on 132 targets, 946 yards, 8 touchdowns
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