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2024 Wild Card Weekend is in the books, and unfortunately, five of the six games were blowouts. Hopefully, the Divisional Round will bring more excitement. While the eight remaining teams clearly deserve to be playing this weekend, there are still overvalued and undervalued squads this late into the season.
Whether a team overperformed or faced a hobbled team last weekend (or both), they could be set up to be exposed in round two of the NFL playoffs. On the flip side, there is an underdog this week that has been getting a lot of hate and doubt this year despite winning a division championship and having a history of postseason success.
This will be the last article of the year-long "overrated and underrated NFL teams" series, so let's waste no time diving into it.
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Most Overrated Divisional Round Team
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Last Week: Def. Philadelphia Eagles
- Divisional Round Matchup: at Detroit Lions
What Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers did on Monday night was nothing short of impressive. Mayfield threw for over 300 yards and delivered three touchdowns in the Wild Card victory. To make his day even more impressive, Mike Evans nor Chris Godwin finished among the top three Tampa pass-catchers in receiving yards. Mayfield diced up the Eagles by spreading the ball around to the likes of Cade Otton, Trey Palmer, and David Moore.
However, Philadelphia came into the contest losers of five of the last six games and did not have All-Pro wideout A.J. Brown (knee). Philly has looked like one of the worst teams on offense and defense over the last month of the season, and it ultimately continued in the first round of the playoffs.
Instead of playing at home this week, Tampa Bay will travel to Detroit and play in front of a starving fan base. The Lions' offensive and defensive fronts have been dominant this year, so it'll likely take another heroic effort from Mayfield for the Buccaneers to have a chance in this NFC Divisional Round bout. The Lions defeated the Bucs 20-6 in Week 6, and that game was played in Raymond James Stadium. The Detroit passing game will be a whole different animal than the broken Eagles' passing game of late.
Bucs blitzed Jalen Hurts on 64% (!) of dropbacks last night.
Tried something similar (42%) against Jared Goff in Week 6, and he went:
10-of-19 (52.6%)
171 yards (9 YPA)
2 TDOnly Brock Purdy (15) threw more TDs against the blitz than Goff (13) this year. https://t.co/D97Wuw8Rdx
— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) January 16, 2024
Detroit is a six-point favorite via DraftKings Sportsbook, and I expect them to cover the line.
Honorable Mention: Houston Texans
Nothing can be taken away from the Houston Texans. Despite having a rookie head coach (DeMeco Ryans) and quarterback (C.J. Stroud), the organization won the AFC South and blew out the Cleveland Browns in the AFC Wild Card Round. However, the Browns were missing at least five significant pieces including their starting quarterback, All-Pro running backs, and its top three offensive tackles. The Baltimore Ravens are as healthy as they've been in a few seasons, so this game could get ugly fast for Houston on Saturday.
.@CJ7STROUD getting to work quick.
📺: #CLEvsHOU on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/jM781VisSx pic.twitter.com/k9k5kHor0J— NFL (@NFL) January 13, 2024
Most Underrated Divisional Round Team
Kansas City Chiefs
- Last Week: Def. Miami Dolphins, 26-7
- Divisional Round Matchup: at Buffalo Bills
Surely, some people are rolling their eyes at the thought of Kansas City being "underrated." However, the Chiefs are 2.5-point underdogs against the Bills this weekend, so you can make the argument that they are "undervalued." Patrick Mahomes is still the best football player on the planet, and the Kansas City defense is a top-five unit in the NFL.
While the wide receiver production has been down compared to any point in Mahomes' career, Rashee Rice is stepping up in a big way, and tight end Travis Kelce snapped out of his cold streak against Miami -- catching seven passes for 77 yards. Don't forget about the team's physical offensive line and Isiah Pacheco, either.
Ultimately, Kansas City is led by a Hall-of-Fame coach and future Hall-of-Fame quarterback and has multiple ways to win on Sunday. For people wagering this weekend, the Chiefs to cover the 2.5 points feels like a great bet.
Opening drive touchdown for Rashee Rice and the Chiefs!#MIAvsKC on Peacock
Also available on #NFLPlus https://t.co/bTakd7vjlv pic.twitter.com/VwS7YRk2Yg— NFL (@NFL) January 14, 2024
Honorable Mention: Green Bay Packers
More often than not, it takes a special quarterback to win consistently in the playoffs. Jordan Love looks every bit of "special" in his first season as the Packers' full-time starter. Although I expect the 49ers to beat Green Bay, the Packers do have a slim path to victory. Traditionally, the 49ers have struggled most when they get out to a deficit so if Love and Matt Lafleur can strike quickly and shock San Francisco like they did in Dallas, this game could get interesting.
JORDAN LOVE DELIVERS. PACKERS UP 20-0.
📺: #GBvsDAL on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/Ut3BRhC2CE pic.twitter.com/NdIftoEEW9— NFL (@NFL) January 14, 2024
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