Stop that Hype Train! Kerryon Johnson (RB, DET)

Training camps have now begun, as the days of summer continue their unrelenting progression into the preseason. As a result, owners are escalating their draft preparation and actual roster construction, in hopes that the teams that they have assembled will ultimately prevail in their leagues.

The ongoing attempts to identify sleepers is an integral part of the planning and execution that occurs throughout the draft process. Anyone who selected Alvin Kamara during the 12th round of their 2017 drafts, can attest to the rewards that can ensue when your dedication toward investing in a player beyond the early rounds helps you capture a fantasy championship.

However, the zeal to seize players that you have designated as sleepers will not always deliver the results that had been envisioned. Some potential sleepers are currently being over-hyped, and it is wise to temper unbridled enthusiasm when determining which players to target by fully examining every aspect of their situation. Because talent alone will not necessarily equate to a productive season.

Talent Is Not The Issue  

To be clear, this is not a declaration that Kerryon Johnson is destined to be a bust, and it is not a recommendation that you should completely avoid him during your drafts. There are not a bevy of concerns regarding Johnson's ability, which was on display during his three seasons at Auburn. His workload steadily increased during that span, as he was allotted the ninth most carries among FBS 1-A runners last season. He proceeded to accrue nearly 1,400 yards (1,391) while averaging 4.9 YPC. He also produced 18 of the 32 touchdowns that were generated during his collegiate career, and supplemented those rushing numbers with 24 receptions for 194 yards, and two additional scores.

Injuries forced Johnson to the sidelines at various times during his tenure with the Tigers, and his tendency to run upright could leave him vulnerable to further health issues. Otherwise, he has demonstrated the ability to handle an extensive workload, possesses the power and willingness to operate inside, and delivers the versatility to be effective while running outside. All of which could theoretically propel this first-year back to a massive snap count. However, that is more likely to occur in 2019, as a congested backfield and Detroit's restrained commitment toward running the ball will conspire to shrink his statistical ceiling below the expectations of many who are drafting him at his current ADP.

The Lions traded up in order to invest the 43rd overall pick in the 5’11”, 206-pound rookie, and were sufficiently impressed with his capabilities that they opted to select him with Derrius Guice still available. This would often supply owners with sizable justification for targeting a first-year back that carries the pedigree of a second-round draft selection. However, the hurdles that could impede Johnson from being able to match the optimistic statistical forecasts do not reside with his talent.

Instead, the formidable obstacles begin with his inclusion in an overloaded backfield that will distribute the touches in three directions. The other barrier that will impede an extensive workload is the reality that Matthew Stafford and last year's sixth-ranked passing attack will remain the driving force behind the offense, as even an incremental upturn in last season’s low percentage of running plays (37%) will not alter the Lions’ fundamental reliance on their passing attack.

A Congested Backfield

If Johnson had been secured by a team that was intent on allocating a significant workload to a particular back, then the outlook for Johnson would be far more encouraging. Unfortunately, he was not drafted into a favorable situation, even though 2017 team rushing leader Ameer Abdullah will almost assuredly be jettisoned. Abdullah easily led the Lions in attempts (165), yardage (552), and rushing touchdowns (4) last season. However, the arrival of both Johnson and LeGarrette Blount indicates that the touches that had been previously earmarked for Abdullah will be reallocated.

But Johnson is still contending with sizable competition that will be comprised of an incumbent pass catching back and a bulldozing goal-line specialist, as Theo Riddick should capture the vast majority of receptions from the backfield, while Blount should commandeer coveted goal line carries. The ongoing result will be a multi-layered approach to the backfield’s workload distribution that will place an unwelcome ceiling on Johnson's potential for production.

After stockpiling a career-best 80 receptions with his 697 yards in 2015, Riddick has collected 53 receptions in each of the past two seasons, while averaging 407.5 yards during that span. Riddick tied for 10^th among all backs with 71 targets in 2017, which also placed him fourth on the Lions in that category. He also finished third in red zone targets (10), which trailed only Marvin Jones and Eric Ebron. Meanwhile, the 31-year old Blount also joins the overcrowded backfield after his rushing output in 2017 (766 yards/2 touchdowns) declined substantially in comparison to 2016 (1,161 yards/18 touchdowns). Blount's career-best output two seasons ago also vaulted him to seventh in fantasy scoring among all backs in standard leagues.

His touchdown total was accrued in great part from scoring on 15 of his 42 attempts inside the 10, although he could not replicate that level of success in 2017. Of the 17 backs that carried the ball at least 15 times inside the 10 last season, Blount was the only runner who failed to score at least three times (1). His proficiency appears to be on the decline, and his tenure as a Lion could easily be limited to one season. Nevertheless, Blount will join Riddick in creating a multi-headed obstruction that will keep Johnson from procuring the snap count that hopeful owners desire.

Continued Commitment To The Passing Attack 

The challenge of a jam-packed running back stable is compounded by the fact that even if Detroit runs with greater frequency this season, the percentage of running plays has been sufficiently low in recent seasons that the expected increase will not alter the team’s pass-first approach. The Lions ranked dead last in rushing yards in 2017, while managing just 3.4 YPC. The team’s 363 attempts were also the NFL’s second-fewest, as the Lions only averaged 22.7 attempts per game. This perpetuated a trend since 2015, in which the team has not ranked higher than 30^th in both rushing and rushing attempts. That span coincides with the tenure of offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter, who deserves credit for the continued development of Stafford. The nine-year veteran has connected on 66% of his passes since 2015, while compiling the three highest completion percentages of his career (65.7/65.3/67.2).

Detroit’s passing attack also has ranked no worse than 11th during that three-year sequence, and the Lions are not expected to radically alter the team’s recent offensive philosophy. The offseason coaching overhaul that resulted in the hiring of former New England defensive coordinator Matt Patricia did not include Cooter, but did result in the hiring of new assistants to coach the offensive line, and tight ends. These coincide with personnel upgrades that were designed to bolster the blocking along the line and at the tight end position, in an effort to strengthen this aspect of the Lions’ attack. But even if the Lions run more frequently in short yardage situations, a drastic change in the team’s pass-heavy approach will not occur. Only one team had a higher percentage of pass plays than the Lions in 2017 (63%), and Stafford will not be relegated to game manager status. Instead, last year’s QB7 will remain entrenched as the most critical component of Detroit's offense. 

Stop That Hype Train

All of which creates a sizable risk of experiencing multiple weeks with unfulfilling touch totals, and ensuing disenchantment for owners who invest a sixth-round pick on Johnson. He is capable of performing adequately with a more expansive workload than he will be entrusted with this season, as his potential to thrive in short yardage and goal line situations will be circumvented by Blount. His capabilities as a pass catcher and blocker are also unlikely to derail the inclination to deploy Riddick extensively as a receiver, which will place inherent restrictions on Johnson’s usage in passing situations. He will also be impacted by the boundaries that exist with Detroit’s dedication to the ground game, even if the Lions increase their usage of the rushing attack in certain short-yardage situations. There are other backfields that will not present owners with the same level of aggravation that will exist with the Lions, which should compel you to exercise caution before selecting Johnson at his current ADP.

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