X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Finding Over/Undervalued Outfielders Using Expected Draft Values

Nick Mariano uses RotoBaller's Expected Draft Values, which analyzes data from the last five MLB seasons, to identify overvalued and undervalued outfielders (OF) for fantasy baseball drafts in 2021.

Welcome to the FSWA-nominated Expected Draft Values series, where we look at historical data to identify both overvalued and undervalued players of all types. Whether you're targeting power, speed, power+speed, batting average+power, and so on, we've got you covered. We're onto the outfield now as we make our way through our 2021 draft prep.

Today, we'll look at three outfielders and compare their projected statline via my Cutter Projections against their ADP's expected return. Due to a variety of factors such as name recognition, your fantasy platform's default rank in the draft room, or social media buzz, ADPs can be swayed to poorly reflect the stats you're drafting. Stay tuned over the next couple of weeks as we bring you a deeper look at undervalued and overvalued players from each position using Expected Draft Values.

Generally, what we'll do in this series is identify players who will return a positive or negative value, based on their NFBC ADP in Draft Champions Contests spanning February into March, their Expected Draft Value (i.e. the average stat line typically produced at that ADP), and the player's projection.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

How Expected Draft Values Help You Win Your League

It may be clear by this point already, but if you know the expected break-even stat-line of every draft slot, you can identify which of your draft picks are projected to return positive or negative value. Below, we look at three OFs that are either over or undervalued based on their recent NFBC DC ADP, our RotoBaller projections, and Expected Draft Values.

Without further ado, here are some players that stand out at their current cost in 2021 drafts.

 

Eloy Jimenez, Chicago White Sox**

**It would appear Jiménez hurt his left shoulder attempting to rob a homer on March 24. This likely no longer applies but I'll leave the blurb up in case he winds up okay and to illustrate the process.

NFBC DC ADP: 37
Expected Return for a Power+Average Hitter Drafted 37th: .299 BA, 28 HR, 92 runs, 92 RBI, 8 SB
2021 RotoBaller Projection: .293-35-102-115-1

Analysis: Jiménez had been overlooked earlier in the offseason due to the hype surrounding Luis Robert and Jose Abreu’s AL MVP campaign. That has ceased to hold true with March here and Eloy comfortably in the top-40 overall. I recognize some will cringe at the zero in steals and I respect those who pass for someone who can offer a handful alongside the pop, but let me stump for Eloy.

Hitting at the heart of a growing White Sox, Jiménez could easily cross the 200 R+RBI mark while approaching 40 homers. With 45 career homers in his first 177 MLB games, he’s proven capable in that department. A worry here is the modest 32.2% fly-ball rate over that span, with a 28.5% mark in 2020’s small sample. But this can work and there's enough here results-wise where we know that it can work "as is" (compared to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.).

But the raw power fueled a 31.1% HR/FB rate and yielded 14 longballs in 55 games anyway. You are buying the power to outweigh the need for speed. To boost you enough to where getting the lighter speedsters later don’t burn. Need I remind you that home runs fuel four of the five roto categories? I'm not worried here and the stats laid out help show that the counting stats hitting near the heart of CHW's order justify the spot.

Verdict: Target, Jiménez is undervalued at his current draft slot

 

Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays

NFBC DC ADP: 57
Expected Return for a Power+Speed Hitter Drafted 53rd: .272-27-93-81-13
2021 RotoBaller Projection: .271-29-84-88-18

Analysis: I’m seeing a lot of “Yeah, he had a great postseason but I’m not paying up for that!” If it were that simple then I’d agree, but he’s been quite good for longer than that. Let’s go back a couple of years here.

I respect someone who doesn’t trust the small body of work at this high draft slot where consistency and floor are traditionally emphasized. But both the power and the speed are projected to edge past the expected HR+SB tally within the Power+Speed cohort. In other words, if you’re remotely interested in his class of player then you’re projected to come out ahead in both departments through Arozarena. And you shouldn’t take an average hit either.

We aren’t expecting the historic postseason pace to continue, but Arozarena is capable of such streaks. Few can say that! When the HR/FB is above 50% across his 2020 then it’s easy to cry regression -- we know, or else he’d be projected for 60-plus homers. Perhaps pitchers hit him with more secondaries after he destroyed heaters, hitting .316 (.306 xBA) with a .895 slugging percentage (.683 xSLG) in the regular season alone. I understand if you see Randy's spring struggles and back off but few hitters boast power and speed potential without a deadweight batting average. If you went pitcher-heavy early and need to leap for five-category production then consider Arozarena.

Verdict: Target, Arozarena is undervalued at his current draft slot

 

Whit Merrifield, Kansas City Royals

NFBC DC ADP: 39
Expected Return for a Power+Speed+Average Hitter Drafted 39th: .292-24-94-83-20
2021 RotoBaller Projection: .293-16-99-69-21

Analysis: This wouldn’t be an egregious pick and we understand speed holds a premium in today’s game. But Merrifield is heading into his age-32 season and his sprint speed has dipped each of the last two seasons. Couple this with the fact that he chose to be more conservative on the basepaths in 2019 after the Royals were knocked out of contention and I’m not bullish on his cracking 25 steals.

And you’ll need the speed to carry him because his career-high homer count is 19 (2017). Despite 2020’s nine homers in only 60 games, his 27.3% hard-hit rate was in the bottom 7% of the league per Baseball Savant. This continues a troubling trend of falling exit velocity for Merrifield:

An interesting note is how the .282 average was the lowest of his career, despite the .292 xBA being his highest Statcast mark. But that profile doesn’t give me the warm and fuzzies! In the end, I understand targeting the volume that comes with Merrifield. He’s almost surely a top-five player in plate appearances barring injury. If that greater certainty is worth the likely stat sacrifice at this draft slot then so be it.

Verdict: Pass, Merrifield is overvalued at his current draft slot



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Homers Twice, Drives in Three
Brice Matthews

Joining Astros
MLB

White Sox-Guardians Postponed on Thursday
Brandon Aiyuk

Likely to Begin Season on PUP List, but Not Ruled Out for Week 1
Jameson Williams

Not in the Team's Long-Term Plans?
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Micah Parsons

Plans to be Present for Start of Training Camp
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Ikem Ekwonu

Next Up for Extension in Carolina?
Jalen Thompson

Heading into Last Year With Cardinals?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Najee Harris

Suffers Eye Injury in Fireworks Mishap
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Nick Nash

Unlikely to Make Falcons Active Roster
Lane Johnson

in No Rush To Retire
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Blake Corum

has "Gotten His Speed Back"
Jarquez Hunter

Picking Up Rams Offense Quickly
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Kirk Cousins

Feels Misled by Falcons
Bijan Robinson

Says Falcons Have "Outlandish Goals" for the Running Game
Luther Burden III

Bears Expect Luther Burden III to be Ready for Training Camp
Cole Kmet

an Unlikely Trade Piece
Tony Pollard

Titans Hope to Balance Rushing Attack With Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Quentin Johnston

Not Assured of Starting Role
Cordarrelle Patterson

on the Roster Bubble in Pittsburgh?
Shedeur Sanders

Not Assured of Roster Spot in Cleveland?
Wan'Dale Robinson

Hoping For More Downfield Opportunities
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
Cleveland Browns

Greg Newsome on the Trade Block?
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Zach Tom

An Extension Candidate in Green Bay
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Trevor Williams

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Byron Buxton

Exits After Hit-by-Pitch, X-Rays Negative
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Playing on Wednesday
Alex Bregman

has "Really Good Chance" to Return Before All-Star Break
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Expected to Return on Friday
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Carter Bryant

Struggles in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Drops a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Oklahoma City Thunder

Malevy Leons Logs Impressive Summer League Outing on Tuesday
Dalton Knecht

Collects 25 Points in Lakers Summer League Win
Los Angeles Lakers

Darius Bazley Drops 27 Points in Summer League on Tuesday
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Chet Holmgren

Agrees to Rookie Max Extension
Alex Bregman

Not Returning Wednesday
Jhoan Duran

Unavailable Due to Illness
Shane McClanahan

Tosses Clean Frame in First Rehab Appearance
Jacob Wilson

Day-to-Day After HBP
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. to be Reassessed Wednesday
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Malaki Branham

Traded to Washington
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Blake Wesley

Moves to Washington
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Kelly Olynyk

on the Move Again
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF