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Dustin Nelson analyzes 10-game even strength trends to identify value plays in DFS. These DFS goaltenders can be sneaky lineup plays when starting.
At this point in the season we have a pretty good sense of how every goaltender is playing. There’s always going to be some variance, but we have a nice sense of what to expect, this side of hot streaks and slumps, across the board.
Outside of playing a backup, finding a steal at netminder in daily games is tough. One way of digging into that minefield is to look for trends. Who is trending up and down while their pricing and the expectations haven’t caught up to an early trend.
This obviously has value outside of steals too. Identifying trends early can help you avoid thinking that Semyon Varlamov's .912 save percentage makes him a better play right now than Pekka Rinne, whose save percentage sits at .909.
10-Game Rolling Average for DFS Steals
The below graphic charts five goaltenders' 10-game rolling even strength save percentage. We'll look at this to identify who has been overrated and under-valued for their current production. Plus, who, if you can't guess already, you should treat like an introverted skunk at Mardi Gras. (You'll want to stay away from that skunk.)
1. Pekka Rinne (G, NSH)
Rinne has not had a Vezina-worthy season. Even playing behind one of the best blue lines in the league, he hasn’t managed to look like himself with that aforementioned .909 save percentage. However, he may be undervalued right now. He's just coming out of a bad stretch where his 10-game rolling even-strength save percentage was below .900.
He can again be played in daily and may even be a sneaky play for a bit. Yes, he’s given up eight over his last two games, but in the six games prior to that Nashville gave up a total of six goals. The Music City squad are on the road over the next four games, which may keep his cost down. On that trip they're playing Vancouver who are 2-8-1 in their last 11 home games, averaging just over two goals per game in those matches.
Favorable Match-ups: 3/8, WPG; 3/12, VAN
2. Devan Dubnyk (G, MIN)
Under new head coach John Torchetti the Wild have tightened up their defensive game. They’ve been stingy and Dubnyk is getting close to playoff form.
Look at the chart above, Dubnyk is trending up and the Wild have non-playoff teams in 11 of 17, starting in Thursday’s win over Toronto where Dubnyk allowed just a single goal.
Favorable Match-ups: 3/5, BUF; 3/12, MTL; 3/15, OTT
3. Braden Holtby (G, WSH)
While the Holtbeast remains the Vezina favorite, he’s proven mortal in recent weeks. His 40 wins and .923 all situation save percentage sparkle, but five of his last 10 starts have seen him post a sub-.900 save percentage.
As you see above, his 10-game rolling average at even strength is trending toward the middle of the pack. Washington is still formidable, but it’s not always clear what you’re getting with Holtby. Also, the team may start giving the softer starts to Philipp Grubauer, as we saw last week with him grabbing the Toronto tilt.
Washington has a west coast road trip this week after they stop off in Boston. They’re facing four hungry teams, including the hottest team in the league in Anaheim. Holtby is great, but I’m hitting pause on him this week because of the cost, the competition and his downward trend.
Favorable Match-ups: Nada
4. Ben Bishop (G, TBL)
Bishop is still playing very well, but his season numbers are much higher than where he's been lately. He’s taken a bit of a dip and you may be paying a premium for how well he played early in the year. Nonetheless, in the right circumstances he can be a valuable start, especially if you can find those situations where a road tilt or other variable helps to depress his cost.
He’s started to climb a bit from the low point of his 10-game rolling average and you can expect that to keep going up. Tampa has allowed just four goals in their last five games and tearing things up right now.
Favorable Match-ups: 3/5, CAR; 3/11, PHI
5. Semyon Varlamov (G, COL)
Varlamov has been pulled in two of his last five starts and has looked absolutely terrible. In one of those starts he allowed the Sabres to score on their first two shots. The other hook he got saw Minnesota post three first-period goals on 12 shots.
Additionally troubling in the latter match was that the Colorado defense looked like cheese cloth for stretch passes. All three of those goals were breakaways and they have had trouble controlling the neutral zone, even with the acquisition of Eric Gelinas.
Varlamov may lose the starting job to rookie Calvin Pickard. Either way, you want no piece of this.
Favorable Match-ups: Don’t bother
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