NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft (3/13): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

Jorge Pucks delivers his top DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft NHL DFS value plays and research for March 13th including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, stacks.

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft for Saturday, March 13th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/13

• • Pittsburgh Penguins (-210) vs. Buffalo Sabres - 6U
  • New York Islanders (-162) vs. New Jersey Devils - 5.5U
  • Washington Capitals vs. Philadelphia Flyers (-120) - 6O
  • Nashville Predators vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-280) - 5.5O
  • Chicago Blackhawks vs. Florida Panthers (-155) - 6U
  • Winnipeg Jets vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (-180) - 6.5U
  • Montreal Canadiens (-110) vs. Calgary Flames (-110) - 5.5O
  • Vegas Golden Knights (-116) vs. St. Louis Blues (-102) - 5.5O
  • San Jose Sharks (-112) vs. Anaheim Ducks (-105) - 6U
  • Edmonton Oilers (-121) vs. Vancouver Canucks - 6.5U

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix and Lineup Optimizer!

NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

• Connor McDavid, EDM ($9,200 DK / $9,2000 FD) - McDavid is certainly on a hot streak and you must consider him regardless of the matchup. He has now scored 20+ DK points in four straight games and has generated 11 points in that four-game span. In just four games against Vancouver, McDavid has registered five goals and two assists for seven total points.
• Kevin Hayes, PHI ($4,800 DK / $6,500 FD) - Hayes is a perfect mid-range option and could be a steal at this price point. Hayes has 20 points in just 24 games this season and has scored a point in three of his last four games. He is coming off of a two-pint effort against the Caps where he recorded two assists with one of those coming on the power play.
• Tomas Hertl, SJS ($3,400 DK / $5,700 FD) - DK priced down Tomas Hertl so it is time to go right back to him again. In his first game back, he took only one shot on goal but was able to register a goal and an assist in just 15 minutes of ice time.

Other centers to consider: Matthews, Crosby, Barkov, Couture, Couturier, Point, Malkin, Barzal, Suzuki, Henrique, Suter, Johansen, Kotkaniemi

NHL DFS Forward Picks

• Leon Draisaitl, EDM ($8,700 DK / $8,200 FD) - Draisaitl is on a tear and it could only continue in a matchup against the Canucks. Draisaitl has scored five goals and three assists over his last three games and has registered nine total assists against the Canucks this year.
• Mark Stone, VGK ($5,600 DK / $7,300 FD) - The pricing on Stone dropped a tad but he is continuing to produce so we might as well ride the hot streak. Stone has now scored a point in six straight games and is coming off of a game against St. Louis where he took three shots and scored a goal.
• Mason Marchment, FLA ($3,400 DK / $3,100 FD) - You might need to make a pivot from Mason Marchment if Anthony Duclair is healthy and returns to the top line pairing for the Saturday night game against Chicago. Marchment has filled in nicely for Duclair as he has registered a point in six out of his last eight games played.

Other wings to consider: Marner, Pacioretty, Kane, Forsberg, Stamkos, Rust, DeBrincat, Toffoli, Kane, Ehlers, Connor, Farabee, Hornqvist, Palat, Huberdeau, Wheeler, Boeser, Gallagher, Eberle, Tarasenko, Tuch, Kubalik, Marchessault, Kapanen, Labanc, Duclair, Bailey, Smith, Aston-Reese

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

• Darnell Nurse, EDM ($6,600 DK / $5,400 FD) - Nurse is a steal over on FD at the price point of $5,400.He has scored four points over his last three games and is averaging five peripheral stats per game over his last five games. Nurse offers one of the best floors of all defensemen in the NHL and should be considered in all formats.
• Ryan Pulock, NYI ($5,100 DK / $4,700 FD) - From a cash game standpoint, Pulock is as steady as it gets. He sees over 22 minutes of ice time per game and has scored four points over his last four games played.
• Jeremy Davies, NSH ($2,900 DK / $3,500 FD) - The Preds are really depleted from a defensemen position standpoint so if you're needing a cheap play, Davies could make for a solid cheap punting option. Davies is coming off of seeing 22 minutes of ice time against Carolina and is also featured on the Preds top power-play unit.

Other defensemen to consider: Burns, Hedman, Barrie, Letang, Ekblad, Rielly, Theodore, Karlsson, Gostisbehere, Martinez, Pionk, Muzzin, Morrissey, Leddy, Dobson, Boqvist, Cernak, Benning 

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

• Mikko Koskinen, EDM ($8,100 DK / $8,200 FD) - WIth Mike Smith getting the nod on Friday night against Ottawa, we can expect Mikko Koskinen to get the nod in net against the Canucks on Saturday night. Koskinen is 8-9 on the season with a 3.30 goals allowed average but is 1-1 on the year against the Canucks. Koskinen is a high upside goalie on this slate due to the potential shot volume that he could see in this matchup against Vancouver. While he isn't the safest option on the board, he should be considered for tournament builds.
• Semyon Varlamov, NYI ($8,200 DK / $8,700 FD) - Varlamov could get the start in net against the Devils on Saturday night. Varlamov has won three straight starts and is 2-0 against New Jersey this season. In those two starts, Varlamov has stopped 58 of 60 shots that he has faced and is averaging 22.8 DK points against New Jersey. He is 12-4-3 on the year with a 2.03 goals allowed average and a .929 save percentage and is one of the safer goalie options on the entire slate.
• Tristan Jarry, PIT ($8,400 DK / $7,700 FD) - Jarry is rounding into form as he has won three straight starts and is 1-0 against Buffalo this year. On the season, Jarry is 11-7-1 with a 3.00 goals allowed average and a .901 save percentage. The Sabres will be without both Jack Eichel and Dylan Cozens which really hinders their offensive upside.

Other goalies to consider: Vasilevskiy, Andersen, Jones

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks 

• EDM 1
  • Draisaitl/ McDavid/ Yamamoto (Nurse/Barrie, d-men add on)
    • The top Oilers line has been extremely dominant in 70 minutes of ice time together. This line is sporting a 4.37 expected goals for rate while generating 43.49 scoring chances for and 23.02 high danger chances for per 60 minutes. They are also extremely lethal on the power play and Draisaitl, McDavid, and Barrie all skate at both even strength and as well on the top power-play unit so that is the best correlating three skaters to consider from Edmonton.
• VGK 2
  • Marchessault/ Karlsson/ Smith 
    • The second line for Vegas had a very dominant puck possession game against the Blues on Friday night as they generated a 69.57 corsi for rate and were able to generate one goal scored. This line totaled 11 scoring chances and four high danger opportunities in just 12 minutes of ice time and are sporting an expected goals for rate of 3.16 per 60 in 24 minutes of ice time against the Blues this year. The pricing is still down on all three of these skaters so it is best to go right back to them in the same matchup for this slate.
• SJS 1
  • Kane/ Couture/ Labanc (Karlsson, d-men add on) 
    • The Sharks had themselves a night against the Ducks on Friday night as they dominated Anaheim by the score of 6-0. The top Sharks line led the team with seven scoring chances and four high danger chances while scoring two even-strength goals in 13 minutes of ice time. In 50 total minutes against the Ducks, this line has an expected goals for rate of 3.06 per 60 minutes and is generating 14.35 high danger chances and 32.28 scoring chances per 60.

Other Stacks to consider: PIT 1/2. NYI 1, PHI1, TB PP, CHI 1, TOR 1

SuperDraft NHL DFS Picks

C: McDavid (1X), Draisaitl (1X), Point (1.4X), Couture (1.5X)

W: Stamkos (1X), Kane (1.15X), Pacioretty (1.3X), Marner (1.65X)

D: Burns (1.15X), Nurse (1.25X), Petry (1.5X), Barrie (1.75X)

G: Vasilevskiy (1.25X), Koskinen (1.35X)

*Core 4 for SuperDraft are Bolded

Key Abbreviations:

xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time

GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time

SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time

If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!

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