NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft (2/01): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

3 years ago by Jorge Pucks

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, Fanduel, and SuperDraft for Monday, February 1st, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 2/01

Pittsburgh Penguins (-115) vs. New York Rangers (-105) - 6O
Boston Bruins (-145) vs. Washington Capitals - 5.5O
Nashville Predators vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-175) - 5.5O
Vancouver Canucks vs. Montreal Canadiens (-160) - 6O
Calgary Flames (-115) vs. Winnipeg Jets (-105) - 6O
~~Vegas Golden Knights vs. San Jose Sharks-~~ PPD

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

Team	Rank GA	Rank SA	Rank GF	Rank SF	Total
Pittsburgh	11	26	22	12	20.75
NY Rangers	23	2	27	19	14.75
Boston	1	24	23	10	16.5
Washington	18	23	30	11	18.5
Nashville	19	15	16	5	21
Tampa Bay	7	20	31	19	12
Vancouver	19	4	24	18	9.5
Montreal	19	18	13	2	19.75
Calgary	16	8	12	15	14
Winnipeg	10	7	15	17	11
Vegas	13	29	19	1	18
San Jose	27	22	4	26	17.25

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

Matchup	PP%	Opp PK%
Pittsburgh	16	23
NY Rangers	7	8
Boston	2	6
Washington	17	3
Nashville	24	13
Tampa Bay	5	28
Vancouver	4	19
Montreal	22	16
Calgary	12	22
Winnipeg	15	8
Vegas	9	1
San Jose	23	27

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank.

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NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

Patrice Bergeron, BOS ($7,800 DK / $7,800 FD) - Bergeron has been a model of consistency at the center position so far this season. He has produced double-digit DK points in six out of eight games this year and is taking over four shots per game.
Elias Lindholm, CGY ($5,100 DK / $5,800 FD) - This is one of the cheaper price points that we will see on Elias Lindholm over on both DK and FD. He is in the low 5k range and is playing at a point per game rate. Lindholm has produced a point in six out of seven games this year with most of his points coming on the Flames power play.
Philip Danault, MTL ($3,400 DK / $4,600 FD) - Danault is more of a riskier option on most slates but given the current matchup of Montreal being on home ice and his line being paired with the Pettersson line, he certainly gets placed into consideration. Danault is still searching for his first goal of the season and he is coming off of a season-high against the Flames where he took five shots throughout the game. If he does that and is able to record a point or two, he will crush value.

Other centers to consider: Point, Crosby, Malkin, Monahan, Strome, Kotkaniemi

NHL DFS Forward Picks

David Pastrnak, BOS ($7,800 DK / $7,500 FD) - Pastrnak had a big-time return on Saturday night as he registered an assist and took five total shots against the Capitals. Pastrnak is a volume shooter and is exactly what this top Boston line has been missing the first several weeks of the season.
Brendan Gallagher, MON ($5,700 DK / $7,200 FD) -The Gallagher line draws a very good matchup as they should be matching with the top line of Vancouver which bodes well for Gallagher. They're not good defensively and Gallagher has been ramping up his shot volume as he is taking four shots per game over his last three games played.
Kasperi Kapanen, PIT ($3,100 DK / $4,100 FD)- Kapanen looked very solid skating alongside Malkin on the Penguins second line. On Saturday night, Kapanen recorded a goal and an assist and has been seeing consistent playing time over his last three games played as he is averaging 17 minutes of ice time.

Other wings to consider: Ovechkin, Tkachuk, Guentzel, Ehlers, Gaudreau, Forsberg, Tatar, Kreider, Smith, Granlund, Ritchie, Pearson

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

Victor Hedman, TB ($7,000 DK / $6,900 FD) - Hedman carries the highest ceiling for all defensemen on the slate and it is hard to not love the amount of ice time that he is actually getting. Hedman has generated five points over his last four games and is averaging close to four shots on goal during that four-game stretch.
Ryan Ellis, NSH ($5,100 DK / $5,000 FD) - Ellis is right in the sweet spot of pricing on both sites and even with it being a tough matchup against Tampa, the pace should be good which means more opportunities at racking up peripheral stats. Ellis got his first goal of the season on Saturday against the Lightning so hopefully, he pulls the trigger and shoots the puck more as the season progresses.
Alexander Edler, OTT ($4,200 DK / $4,200 FD) - Edler is priced down on both sites and if you're needing a value play for cash games, Edler should definitely be in consideration. He only has three points on the season but a lot of his fantasy value lies in racking up peripheral stats with shots on goals and more specifically, blocked shots.

Other defensemen to consider: Carlson, Fox, Josi, Weber, Andersson, Benn, Schmidt, McDonagh, Ekholm, Ceci, Orlov

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

Andrei Vasilevskiy, TB ($8,400 DK / $8,500 FD) - Vasilevskiy is one the highest-priced goaltenders on both sites and is coming off of a win against this Nashville squad Saturday night. Nashville is a sneaky opponent as they do have quite a bit of talent on that team but have been underperforming for about a full season. The Preds are scoring 2.4 goals per game but are taking 32.4 shots per game which is encouraging since we want goal tenders who could face a large shot volume.
Carey Price, MTL ($8,200 DK / $8,300 FD) - One of the constants for the Canadiens is Carey Price. He is priced well on both sites as he is 1-0-1 against this Canucks team this season. Price will certainly benefit in this matchup as they will be on home ice and Montreal will be able to control the line matches which will hinder the upside for the Canucks top two lines. Price is 3-0-2 on the season with a 2.92 goals allowed average and an .898 save percentage.
Jacob Markstrom, CGY ($7,800 DK / $7,900 FD) - If you're looking for more of a tournament type of play, Markstrom should be given consideration. He is coming off of a shutout performance against a good Montreal squad and has already notched two shutouts this season. Markstrom is carrying a .919 save percentage and a 2.18 goals allowed average which is extremely solid despite having a record of 3-2-1.

Other goalies to consider: Rask, Saros

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership.

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks

BOS 1
- Marchand/ Bergeron/ Pastrnak (Nurse, D-men add on)
  - While the Capitals came out victorious on Saturday night against Boston, the Bruins have a lot of momentum right now with the return of David Pastrnak to the top line. This line dominated their matchup as they posted a 68 corsi for while creating 10 scoring chances and five high-danger opportunities. Over the past year, this line has an expected goal for per 60 of 2.61, creates 31 scoring chances per 60, and 12.13 high danger opportunities. Washington is allowing three goals per game and if they deploy the wrong line match against this Boston 1 line, it could be a long night for the Caps.
PIT 1
- Guentzel/ Crosby/ Rust (Letang, D-men add on)
  - Bryan Rust was thrust up to the top line for the Penguins and it seemed to have provided a spark over the weekend. This line posted a 72 corsi for percentage over an 11-minute span while generating 11 scoring chances for, three high danger opportunities, and one goal scored. The Rangers are giving up three goals per game and if Pittsburgh is able to find the back of the net several times, there is a good chance that some of the damage came from this top line.
MTL 1
- Tatar/ Danault/ Gallagher (Weber, D-men add on)
  - The top line of Montreal could go overlooked in tournaments due to this being a loaded late with a lot of top tier teams and stacks. This Canadiens top line has been one of the best statistical lines in the league over the past several seasons and should hard match with the top line of Vancouver which favors Montreal. The Pettersson line for Vancouver is extremely weak defensively as they have an expected goal allowed rate of 3.11 per 60 minutes, allow 29.82 scoring chances per 60, and allow 15 high danger opportunities. The top line for Montreal carries a 2.71 expected goals for rate, 34 scoring chances per 60, and 14.85 high danger chances per 60 so far this year.