RADIO
Ellis' favorite season-long prop bets for 2021 NFL. He covers everything from win totals to passing touchdowns to reception totals - it's all here!
The countdown to NFL kickoff is on. This means that not only is it time to release my favorite fantasy players for 2021, but it’s also time to dive into my favorite season-long prop bets. Personally, I love season-long wagers. Yes, injuries can derail what may be a surefire season; however, if you really believe in teams and their players, the lines can be very generous. For this article, I am going to give myself a makeshift $100 budget and describe how I would divide it over these bets.
Before we dive into the proposition bets, I want to provide a little background. I am very proud to announce that last season on FantasyPros, I finished 14th out of the 210 experts graded on picks against the spread. I also made (and will continue to make) picks for every Thursday night game in my weekly RotoBaller Thursday Night preview column. This season, my fantasy rankings are considered in the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings, with hopes that I can repeat the success of last year!
Disclaimer: Please gamble responsibly. I am writing this as a thought-provoking guide that can hopefully help individuals make their own decisions. Lastly, I would also like to remind everyone that there is an extra game this season. No more housekeeping, let’s get to the good stuff!
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Win Totals
Cincinnati Bengals Under 6.5 Wins (Even): As a Bengals fan, this really pains me to say, but I am very comfortable that the Bengals will not hit seven wins this season. I have been eating up the fantasy hype that is peppering the Bengals' offense this offseason, but when it comes to winning football games, I think the hype has created a generous win total. Last season, the Bengals allowed the seventh most completions in the league and the sixth most passing plays of 20+ yards.
This offseason, they have added some depth to the defense and will hope to have a healthy D.J. Reader on the D-line. However, none of this makes me believe that the defense will have a miraculous turnaround in 2021. Now, what about the schedule? In what can be argued to be the best division in football, the Bengals will be lucky to go 1-5 against AFC North opponents. So, let’s do some math. Can you find six wins against the following opponents: Vikings, Bears, Jaguars, Packers, Lions, Jets, Raiders, Chargers, 49ers, Broncos, and Chiefs? I count four, maybe five MAX. History has told us that it’s never bad to fade the Bengals.
Ellis’ Wager: $25
Tennessee Titans Over 9.5 (-150): I love this line. The Titans have been contenders for two years in a row and share a division with two of the worst teams in football. Although this defense is shaky, you’re going to need Picasso at the drawing board to figure out how to stop this offense. A.J. Brown, Julio Jones, and King Derrick Henry dominating the ground, this should be an unbelievable offense. Plus, don’t forget Ryan Tannehill can move too. In 2020, he had the same amount of rushing touchdowns as Lamar Jackson. This team will be able to score against all defenses and will most likely go at least 5-1 against divisional opponents. Using last year’s record totals of opponents, the Titans have the 19th-easiest schedule. The only thing scaring me is that the line is set at 9.5 and not 11.5. This is an easy over for me.
Ellis’ Wager: $15
Props
Matthew Stafford Over 29.5 passing touchdowns (-115): The Rams could very well be the best team in the NFL in 2021. Not only do they have two of the best defensive positional players in Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, but head coach Sean McVay got to handpick the perfect quarterback for his system. Over his career on a mediocre Lions team, Stafford has averaged 1.7 passing touchdowns per game. This would put him right on 29 touchdowns for the season. So, where do we find the extra touchdown? He is now playing with arguably the best receiving corps of his career (unless you count Calvin Johnson as an entire core), the best head coach and offensive coordinator of his career, and his best offensive line so far.
Take your pick of these reasons and I’m sure you can find another passing touchdown. While this defense projects to be one of the best in the league, losing Cam Akers for the season should increase passing touchdowns. Plus they are in a very good division that should create competitive game scripts. If Stafford can stay healthy (big if), then he is primed for what should be the best season of his career.
Ellis’ Wager: $15
Dak Prescott Over 32.5 passing touchdowns (Even): I love the passing touchdown props this season. This offense has looked unstoppable in camp and preseason. CeeDee Lamb is becoming a star right in front of our eyes, Amari Cooper is continuing to show why he is quietly one of the league’s best receivers, and Michael Gallup has been dusting their corners. The icing for this team is that Dak Prescott is back and the defense is as bad as ever. There is no reason this team shouldn’t allow multiple touchdowns to every team it faces.
Last season, Prescott was on pace for 31 touchdowns and a monstrous 6,310 passing yards. This team will need to score to win games and I see Prescott slinging it all season. Plus, quarterbacks are tentative to run after a major lower-body injury, which is what he is coming back from. I think Dak hits 38 passing touchdowns and I don’t mind sprinkling him to lead the league in passing touchdowns at +1200.
Ellis’ Wager: $10
CeeDee Lamb Over 1000.5 receiving yards (-160): This is one of those props that may look really silly come to the end of the season. Lamb managed to rack up 935 yards in his rookie season despite missing Dak Prescott for 11 games. This offseason, we have watched Lamb improve his game and easily look like a 1,000-yard receiver. Add in my previous comments about Prescott and we have an easy over pick.
Ellis’ Wager: $10
Calvin Ridley Over 98.5 receptions (-115): Last season, six receivers hit the century mark for receptions. They were: Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson, Tyler Lockett, and Keenan Allen. All of these receivers (besides Lockett) are the undisputed top target for their pass-happy teams. With Julio Jones out the door, we now have this exact scenario for Ridley, who managed to have 90 receptions in 2020. Ridley is primed for a huge season and should be leaned on frequently by Matt Ryan, who has passed for 4,000 yards for 10 consecutive seasons. I’m all-in on Ridley this season and think there is value for him to lead the league in receptions at +1400.
Ellis’ Wager: $10
Dalvin Cook Under 59.5 receptions (-115): Hitting Dalvin Cook with an under is always terrifying. However, 60 receptions is a ridiculous amount for any running back not named Christian McCaffery, Alvin Kamara, or Austin Ekeler. Despite having two monster seasons for fantasy, Cook has yet to reach the 60-reception milestone. Also, over the last two seasons, 10 backs have eclipsed the 60-reception mark. Considering Cook was 14th in total receptions last season, he would need to see an increase to his already mind-boggling workload to reach this mark.
Ellis’ Wager: $7.5
Chase Edmonds Over 955.5 total yards (-120): The drumbeat has been picking up for Edmonds as we enter the season. Although he may be in a situation that is inconsistent for fantasy, we learned last year that his involvement as a pass-catcher is very consistent on this high-powered offense. Despite Kenyan Drake acting as the featured back for the entire season in 2020, Edmonds managed to put up 950 yards from scrimmage.
Now, replacing Drake is the oft-injured James Conner. Over the last two years, in games where Edmonds has received 60% or more of snaps, he has averaged 100 yards from scrimmage. As a result, not only should Edmonds be on pace for the over with Conner healthy, but you get the added safety of Conner most likely missing a few games.
Ellis’ Wager: $7.5
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