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Kipp Heisterman presents his expert NFL DFS prop picks for Week 9 of the Fantasy Football season. Use these prop picks to win money on Monkey Knife Fight, our partner for all DFS prop picks games.
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As always, there are a couple of games we can look to target this week including the Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks.
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Lions @ Raiders
Over/Under Contest
Recommended Prop Pick: Matthew Stafford over 297.5 passing yards and Derek Carr under 274.5 passing yards.
This game has the second-highest total on the board at 50.5 and for good reason. Both of these defenses are suspect against the pass, and Detroit is suspect against both the run and pass.
Let's start with why Stafford will go over the total. First, the Lions do not have a solid running game. They currently average only 96.9 rushing yards per game, which ranks 22nd in the league. They also just lost Kerryon Johnson and will likely experience a downtick in rushing efficiency in future weeks. The Raiders are also fairly decent at stopping the run as they only allow 92.9 rushing yards per game, which ranks ninth-best in the league. The Raiders cannot stop the pass, however, as they are currently allowing quarterbacks to throw for 298.4 yards per game, which ranks third-worst in the league. All of this makes for a perfect opportunity for Detroit to roll into Oakland with a pass-heavy gameplan, which will allow Stafford to throw for over 300 yards for the fourth time this season.
Carr will likely throw for under the prop total for several reasons. First, the Raiders are one of the slowest paced teams in the league. They love to pound the rock with Josh Jacobs, and they should be able to have a ton of success doing that this week as the Lions currently allow running backs to rush for 108.8 yards per game and are also allowing 4.6 yards per carry. The Raiders are also 2.5 point favorites in this game, which likely means they will not be in comeback mode late in the game and having to throw the ball frequently. Carr has also only eclipsed this total twice so far in 2019 and those came against the Packers when they were trailing heavily late in the game and then last week against Houston, who is awful against the pass, yet can stop the run.
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Lions @ Raiders
Reception Collection Contest
Recommended Prop Pick: Danny Amendola, Kenny Golladay, and Darren Waller over 17.5 receptions.
Given the total in the game and the likelihood of high pass volume from the Lions, I want to go right back to the well here. We already know both of these pass defenses are anemic, so neither team should struggle to complete passes, it is just a matter of selecting the correct receivers to reach the prop total and I believe these three are the best choices.
Danny Amendola has become a target monster in the past couple of weeks. With the Lions lacking a run game, they have seemingly turned to Amendola in the short passing game to make up for it. In the past two weeks, Amendola has garnered 19 targets in which he has caught 16 of them for 200 yards. This uptick in targets directly corresponds to the loss of Kerryon Johnson and is likely to continue this week vs. a tough Raider run defense.
Kenny Golladay has also been a favorite target of Stafford as he has garnered at least eight targets in every game this season except one. He has also managed to haul in at least five receptions in four of seven games this season while also adding in a four reception game Week 1 at Arizona. He should be able to significantly add to the prop total in this matchup.
While I do not expect Carr to go over the passing yards prop, I do think he will have success when he does throw the ball as the Detroit defense has not been able to stop the pass this season. They have been especially bad against tight ends where they have allowed a 70% completion rate to the position while giving up over 400 yards receiving. Darren Waller has been a favorite target of Carr as he has amassed an average of 8.2 targets per game and 6.6 receptions per game. He should have plenty of success this week and help put these three over the total.
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Buccaneers @ Seahawks
Over/Under Contest
Recommended Prop Pick: Russell Wilson over 269.5 passing yards and Jameis Winston over 279.5 passing yards.
The total in this game is the highest on the board at 51 and I think it will be an absolute shootout in Seattle. Both of these teams are going to have to move the ball through the air as both defenses are strong against the run and weak against the pass.
Seattle currently ranks 16th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game with 103.1 allowed. The Bucs also have an awful rushing offense as they rank 19th in the league with 99.3 rushing yards per game. Running the ball in this game for the Bucs will not come easy, but passing should. The Seattle defense is currently allowing quarterbacks to throw for 283 yards per game. Seattle is also favored by six, which means Jameis and the Bucs will likely be in pass mode late in the game and this should help hit the total. Winston has also eclipsed this total in four of his seven games in 2019.
The Bucs rank number one in rushing yards allowed per game by allowing only 68.6 yards per game. This means Seattle will have a heck of a time trying to pound Chris Carson down their throats. However, the Bucs cannot stop the pass to save their lives as they have allowed quarterbacks to throw for over 300 yards per game, which ranks second-worst in the league. Seattle will likely to try to pound Carson on them early, and then realize the pass is the way to go vs. this defense. Wilson has eclipsed this total three times thus far in 2019 and almost hit it a fourth time with 268. I would expect him to do it a fourth time on Sunday.
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