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Kipp Heisterman presents his expert NFL DFS prop picks for Week 13 of the Fantasy Football season. Use these prop picks to win money on Monkey Knife Fight, our partner for all DFS prop picks games.
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As always, there are a couple of games we can look to target this week including the Philadelphia Eagles at Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers at New York Giants.
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Eagles @ Dolphins
Over/Under Contest
Recommended Prop Pick: Carson Wentz over 267.5 passing yards and Ryan Fitzpatrick over 229.5 passing yards.
This game has an average total of 45.5, but I think the game flow sets up for both of these quarterbacks to go over their respective totals.
Let's start with why Wentz will go over the total. The Dolphins have been very suspect against the pass, especially with the trading of Minkah Fitzpatrick and loss of Reshad Jones. They allow 261 passing yards per game and have allowed quarterbacks to throw for 26 passing touchdowns. While the Dolphins have also been bad against the run, the Eagles have somewhat struggled to move the ball on the ground in 2019. They rank 13th in the league with an average of 121.2 rushing yards per game and could be without Jordan Howard again in Week 13. In a similar situation this past week, Wentz managed to throw for 256 yards on 45 attempts. I think the Eagles end up reverting to the pass in this game due to their lack of weapons on the ground and Wentz ends up eclipsing this total.
Fitzpatrick will eclipse his total in large part due to the score. The Eagles are favored in this game by nine points. They are the third biggest favorite on the slate behind only Kansas City and Carolina. This leads me to believe the Dolphins will be trailing late and Fitzpatrick will be throwing a ton. He has attempted an average of 36 pass attempts over the previous five weeks. This type of volume ultimately leads me to believe he gets over the total as well.
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Packers @ Giants
Fantasy Challenge Contest
Recommended Prop Pick: Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, and Saquon Barkley over 56.5 fantasy points.
This game has an average total of 45.5 as well, but there is a lot of fantasy potential in this game based on the way these defenses play against the respective positions in the prop bet.
Let's start with Adams. The Giants have been awful vs. wide receivers this season. They allow the second-most receiving yards per game (197), seventh-most receptions per game (13.5), and fourth-most receiving touchdowns (15) on the season. Overall, this equates to allowing 27.7 fantasy points per game to the position, which ranks second-worst in the league. Adams will see plenty of volume vs. this defense as well. He has garnered 21 targets in the previous two games and hauled in 14 of them for 159 yards. He should be able to put up a solid day again, and I also like his chances of getting in the box.
The Giants also struggle against the running back position. They rank eighth-worst in rushing yards allowed per game (102.3), eleventh-most rushing touchdowns (8), and 15th-most receiving yards per game (42.6) to running backs. Aaron Jones has become a staple to the success of the Packers offense, both on the ground and through the air. He has put up some monster games against similar defenses when he scored over 4o fantasy points vs. the Chiefs in Week 8 and over 25 fantasy points vs. the Panthers in Week 10. I would expect results comparable to these games this week vs. the Giants.
Lastly, the Packers have been awful vs. running backs in 2019. They have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game (114.1), second-most touchdowns (13), 11th-most receptions (62), and fifth-most (23) fantasy points per game. Saquon has had a major role in this offense, both rushing and receiving, as he has touched the ball an average of 21 times over his previous five contests. I think the Giants get him involved early and often in this game and he helps get this trio over the total.
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