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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Chargers vs 49ers showdown slate on 11/13. His Sunday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! I hope your weekend has gone well so far. After last week's Titans/Chiefs Sunday night matchup, we'll head out to California for an interstate showdown as the Chargers head north up to San Francisco to take on the 49ers. The Chargers have been relatively lackluster on offense lately, and now have to take on the daunting San Francisco defense. Let's take a look at how this slate shakes out!
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Chargers vs. 49ers NFL DFS showdown slate on November 13th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Justin Herbert - QB, $15,900 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 2,254 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, five interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 11.7% (16th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 2.5% (4th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start tonight's slate off with Justin Herbert. A bit of an interesting call here considering that I mentioned at the top that the Chargers have had some trouble moving the ball down the field and scoring, especially now, without Keenan Allen and Mike Williams lining up at the receiver positions. I'm not confident that Justin Herbert will do enough for the Chargers to win this game, but I am confident that he should do enough to be viable at the 1.5x spots on both sites tonight. His reasonable prices on both sites, partnered with a lean towards the passing funnel, back this as well.
Christian McCaffery - RB, $17,400 (DK), $17,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 111 rushing attempts, 525 rushing yards, 54 targets, 43 receptions, 356 receiving yards, six touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -9.3% (23rd), per Football Outsiders.
- 2021 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: 5.5% (29th), per Football Outsiders.
On the other side of the field, I'll take a look at Christian McCaffery. We received news yesterday that Elijah Mitchell will be active for San Francisco tonight, but that doesn't alter my opinion on CMC whatsoever. This will be the first time we get a look at CMC after the bye and without Jeff Wilson Jr. taking any touches in the backfield. My model projects McCaffery for 93.77 yards out of the backfield, coupled with 5.05 receptions and 37.37 yards in the receiving game, and 1.18 total touchdowns. He's a must-play tonight in any capacity, and if you're willing to pay up, toss him in the 1.5x spot.
Other Captains/MVPs: Austin Ekeler, Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle
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DFS Flex Plays
Jimmy Garoppolo - QB, $9,800 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 1,691 passing yards, 11 passing touchdowns, four interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 24.3% (7th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2021 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -2.2% (10th), per Football Outsiders.
Throwing the ball to CMC, among others, will be Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo has never been an "elite" quarterback from a fantasy standpoint but has played extremely well over the past four weeks, averaging 271.75 yards and two touchdowns with just 0.75 interceptions. Tonight should be relatively similar, as I have Jimmy G projected for 246.91 yards, 1.79 touchdowns, and 0.73 interceptions. The 24.71% projected passing DVOA for San Francisco is slightly above their season DVOA, so I'm expecting Garoppolo to perform a tick above his average, which would be a reasonable showing considering his price on both sites.
George Kittle - TE, $7,400 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 39 targets, 28 receptions, 319 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Drue Tranquill): 12% targets per route, 85% catch rate, 0.21 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
In terms of San Francisco pass-catchers, I'll take a stand on George Kittle being my favorite tonight. On top of being the cheapest of the bunch across both sites, he projects to lead all pass-catchers in targets (6.38) and receiving yards (61.84), while falling in just behind CMC in receptions (4.48), as well as having a 35% chance to find the end zone. The 49ers have a projected tight-end DVOA of 21.74% tonight, and I think that George Kittle puts on a show and will remind us all that he remains in the top class of playmaking tight ends in the league.
Other Flex Options: Deebo Samuel, Joshua Palmer, Gerald Everett
DFS Value Plays
DeAndre Carter - WR, $5,400 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 34 targets, 24 receptions, 282 yards, one touchdown.
- Individual Matchup (vs Jimmie Ward): 14% target rate, 100% catch rate, 0.44 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
I'll take a look at DeAndre Carter as the first value play of the night. While I will look to pair a 1.5x Justin Herbert with Austin Ekeler, and potentially Joshua Palmer, I'll take a look at Carter here as well. Carter is projected to see 5.55 targets, catching 4.02 of them for 46.74 yards and a 28% chance of finding the end zone. It isn't much, and we do have to consider the Chargers potentially being completely shut down by San Fran's defense, but I'm willing to take the risk given his cheap price on both sites.
San Francisco 49ers - D/ST, $4,800 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 17.88 points per game allowed, 26 sacks, six interceptions, three fumble recoveries, two defensive touchdowns.
- Projected DVOA: -7.85%
Finally, I'll wrap things up with the 49ers' defense. The Niners' defense ranks sixth among all fantasy defenses in the 2022 season, and their DVOA projections are off the charts this evening. They project a 5.36% passing DVOA against, a -34.79% rushing DVOA against, and project to a 25% pressure rate and a 7.61% projected sack rate. While I do have some concerns regarding garbage time and the Chargers eventually being able to push the ball down the field, I'm rather confident that the San Francisco defense will end up in the optimal lineup tonight.
Other Value Plays: Cameron Dicker, Michael Bandy, Robbie Gould
Enjoy your weekend and good luck everyone!
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