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We're past Week 9 already and entering the home stretch of the season, which means you will be fighting harder than ever to procure that sweet playoff spot. And knowing the importance of having a solid quarterback in your lineups (or two, if you are part of a 2QB/Super-FLEX league!), it's only right we highlight them in this week's column.
To gain the biggest edge in your fantasy football league, it's necessary to understand how to apply the advanced statistics being used in sports nowadays. Back in the day, it was all about wins and losses, passing yards, and touchdowns scored. It's not that those stats are now worthless, they just don't offer enough information to savvy analysts. While football is still in its infancy compared to baseball in terms of analytics, the evolution the sport has seen lately in those terms is notable.
Each week, I'll be tackling NFL's Next Gen Stats, bringing you data from the previous week's games with notable takeaways you should consider when assessing fantasy players for the upcoming week. In case you're new to the series, or Next Gen Stats altogether, I recommend you read our NGS-primer. Now, let's get to the data!
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Week 9 - The State Of The Passing Game
One of the most important concepts to consider when analyzing players is air yards. The metrics around it are key to knowing who is really overperforming or underperforming among receivers and passers, but it doesn't have much to do with rushers.
Today, I'll present each of the stats from the NFL's advanced metrics site, its correlation with quarterback-fantasy points, and a list of leaders and trailers in each category along with some notes and takeaways on both the players' and the metrics' impact on fantasy football as a whole.
As we'll be discussing quarterbacks and their passing stats, I will reduce the fantasy points per game averages to just those related to passing. That means that I have removed the rushing/receiving fantasy points the qualifying quarterbacks have logged during the season. I've called this metric paFP/G, which is to say passing Fantasy Points per Game.
So let's dive in. Note: The cutoff is set at 68 pass attempts.
Time to Throw
Correlation with Passing Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): 6%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
Although there is some relation between TT and FPPG (paFP/G, I mean), the truth is that randomness is the calling card of this metric.
Tom Brady led the league with the quickest TT back in Week 3, he did again last time we checked after Week 6, and he's still up there after nine games and past the season's midpoint. That said, PJ Walker is as close as he can be.
The distance between PJ Walker and third-quickest thrower Joe Burrow is the same as that between Burrow and no. 15 Kenny Picket--virtually half the league.
Even though Brady and Walker are the clear leaders on the TT front, the former is averaging 15.5 paFP per game compared to the latter's 6.2 figure. See why this metric is definitely not one to chase in the fantasy realm?
Brady is the only player qualified with only one interception through Week 9. There are other four quarterbacks on the list with only two INT thrown to date, with their TT marks ranging between 2.67 (Dak Prescott) and 3.03 (Daniel Jones).
The 10 quickest passers are averaging exactly 7.0 yards per attempt. The 10 slowest are currently sitting at 7.2 Y/A, slightly above the first group.
Zach "Molasses" Wilson has stayed in his lane. He leads (trails?) the league by 0.09 seconds with Daniel Jones (3.03) and Lamar Jackson (3.02) the only other QBs taking more than three seconds to pass the ball after grabbing hold of it.
Good to know that Wilson, though, doesn't care about stats--the only number that matters for him are wins. The 5-1 record with him at the helm surely helps his case.
There are 11 quarterbacks with averages of 15+ paFP per game through Week 9 and they're taking an average of 2.73 TT to pass the ball.
There are 12 quarterbacks averaging fewer than 11 paFP per game and they are taking 2.78 seconds to pass the rock. Considering the difference between no. 1 Brady (2.40) and no. 39 Wilson (3.12) is up to 0.72 seconds, the actual gap (0.05 seconds) between the best fantasy passers and the worst is insignificant.
All things considered, don't put much weight on this metric, as it is way more descriptive of past performance and style than predictive of future fantasy outings.
Completed/Intended Air Yards & Air Yards Differential
Correlation with Passing Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): 32% / 17% / 24%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
Hard to know if we'll see Jameis Winston throwing a ball at least one more time this season or if we won't now that Andy Dalton is leading the Saints. If the latter ends up happening, that'd be a shame considering Winston has the largest CAY mark in the NFL at 8.8, already 0.5 above second-highest Tua's.
It makes sense for Winston to lead the way, though, as nobody is even remotely close to his ridiculous 11.4 IAY. Mariota (10.3) is second but already more than a full aDOT-yard down. No other quarterback is into double-digit IAY figures.
Though separated 2.8 CAY yards from Winston, Andy Dalton's 6.6 mark is also in the NFL's top-13 and easily above the league average (5.7) through Week 9. Dalton's 8.0 IAY rank lower as the 17th-highest figure.
Dak Prescott is the Cowboys' go-to quarterback and that won't change any time soon. Even then, Prescott's and Cooper Rush's numbers on both the CAY (6.5 and 6.6) and IAY (8.5 and 8.4) can't be closer.
Indianapolis sat Matt Ryan, canceling him for the remainder of the season barring catastrophe by second-year QB Sam Ehlinger. Ehlinger has still to reach the minimum attempt threshold, but judging by Ryan's numbers, the Colts might have made the right decision. The veteran QB went to the bench with the 12th-worst CAY mark (5.2 yards) and the absolute-worst IAY mark (6.2) of all 39 qualified quarterbacks through Week 9.
Kyler Murray has been rather productive on the passing front for fantasy purposes considering his low CAY (4.0; league-worst) and IAY (6.5; third-worst). Murray has the lowest CAY+IAY combination but he's one of only two quarterbacks (along with Justin Herbert) averaging more than 11.6 paFP per game while having a combined figure below 11.4 yards.
Aggressiveness
Correlation with Passing Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): negative-30%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
NGS defines "Aggressiveness" as the percentage of passes a quarterback throws into tight coverage, that is when a defender is within one yard or less of the receiver at the point of the catch/interception. Don't take this metric as a sign of "braveness" or anything like that, though. It relates more to reckless passing than anything else.
It's going to be impossible for Bailey Zappe to finish the season into the qualified-QB leaderboard as he only attempted 92 passes in four games and he should not start any other game barring injuries. That said, and for now, Zappe is the only NFL passer with single-digit aggressive passes: he's thrown nine balls into tight windows.
Two other quarterbacks have lower rates while having tossed the rock at least 187 times: Trevor Lawrence (9.1 AGG%; 28 such passes) and Justin Fields (9.6%; 18), who both have yet to reach 30 and 20 total aggressive total passes, respectively.
The three quarterbacks with the lowest AGG% rates are all averaging fewer than 13 paFP per game. The next three-lowest figures belong to quarterbacks averaging at least 15.6 paFP/G, with two putting up 19.0+ paFP/G.
You probably didn't even need to check the numbers to know the answer to who the most "aggressive" passers in the NFL are: Winston and Mitch Trubisky can be considered 1A and 1B at it as they are the only two passers with AGG% above 25%. Both, of course, have already been benched for one reason or another without coming back.
Prescott is the only quarterback with an AGG% above 20% and only two INT through Week 9. His understudy, Cooper Rush, has three on nearly double the amount of pass attempts and a top-four AGG% too.
Five qualified quarterbacks have already thrown at least eight picks. Their AGG% are mostly on the lower side of things, with marks between 12.8% (Josh Allen) and 16.3% (Davis Mills). Matt Ryan leads all QBs with nine INTs, throwing 15.5% of his passes into tight windows.
Patrick Mahomes has a bottom-six AGG% (11.8) but leads the league in TDs with 21. Kenny Pickett has the fewest TDs (two) with an AGG% of 13.3. On a similar number of pass attempts or games to Mahomes' 331 in eight matches, it could be said that Daniels Jones' six TDs with an AGG% of 17.3% sit at the other end.
Attempts & Yards & Y/A
Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): 70% / 78% / 68%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
Not many big secrets are hidden in these three stats, am I right? The correlation is high with fantasy points basically because fantasy points rely mostly on pure yardage, and to rack up yards, you have to throw the ball (the more the better, that is).
Tua Tagovailoa missed some time but he's appeared in seven games while attempting 216 passes through Week 9. Even on such an above-average-size sample, Tua has the best Y/A mark at 9.2 yards per attempt. No other quarterback is above 8.5 with Jalen Hurts (239 attempts) and Zappe (92) tied for second.
Tons of people could be labeled Jimmy G Haters, but the truth is that the man surely knows how to throw a rock: 8.1 Y/A for 1,691 yards are no joke and something only three other quarterbacks are replicating on such volume through the ninth week of the season. That said, Garoppolo has the lowest paFP/G average of those four, and the lowest among passers with 210+ attempts and more than 7.5 Y/A.
There are eight QBs with 300+ attempts through Week 9 and their paFP/G averages range between 22.0 (Mahomes) and 12.8 (Lawrence). Tom Brady has both the lowest amount of TDs (10) and INTs (one) among those in that group.
Joe Flacco and Kenny Pickett (quite the age contrast, by the way) trail all quarterbacks tied for a meager 5.8 Y/A mark. That said, Flacco went on to average 16.7 paFP/G over three starts while Pickett is sitting at a putrid 6.1 paFP/G average through five.
Completion Percentage & xCOMP & COMP Above Expectation
Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): 67% / 26% / 69%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
The world of hypotheticals is cool, but what truly matters is what actually happens on the field. That is why the real completion percentage is the stat that matters, and why the expected rate doesn't cut a good deal for fantasy GMs.
That being said, the difference between both marks (CPOE) is the strongest indicator of fantasy performance, which makes sense considering that those who "overperform" or play to higher-than-expected levels on average are the ones who more often than not put on high-octane performances.
Geno Smith at the top of the CPOE leaderboard is far from surprising these days. He's been atop the list for a while now and he is in absolute clear command of the leaderboard through Week 9. The 7.1% completions above expectations are chased in the distance by a benched Winston (5.2%) and the only starter "close" to Geno is Hurts already down to 2.8%.
There is still half of the season to play but Geno's case for Comeback Player of the Year is already a winning one, right? The man has led the Seahawks to a 6-3 record and the first position in their division, has 15 TDs to only four INTs, and is the only player in the league completing more than 71% passes... excellent!
Zappe's 70.7% completion rate is great, but it must be said that he's done so over only 92 pass attempts. Burrow's 70% and Tua's 69.9% figures are much more impressive considering the volume of passes they've thrown through Week 9.
Matthew Stafford keeps struggling with a minus-0.6% CPOE and it's actually showing in his per-game fantasy average of just 11.6 FP. He's got an 8:8 TD-to-INT ratio through the year... and he should know that Matt Ryan got benched after going 9:9 with the Colts and boasting a much-healthier 14 paFP/G average. Just saying.
Two Panthers trail everybody on the CPOE leaderboard having completed 10% and 8.3% fewer passes than expected by the model: Baker Mayfield and backup-of-a-backup PJ Walker. We can't wait to see Sam Darnold take the field and try to beat his teammates at underperforming the expectations.
Justin Fields is coming off a career game this past weekend but he's also completing 7.2% fewer passes than expected, the third-worst mark in the NFL through Week 9.
All players currently completing fewer than 60% of their passes should have completed no fewer than 63% by NGS's model.
No quarterback has thrown passes for an expected completion above 70%, with Garoppolo getting the closest to it given his 69.6% xCOMP. Only two other quarterbacks are into the 69% xCOMP through Week 9: Zappe and Stafford.
The fantasy breakdown after Week 9:
- QBs averaging 15+ FPPG through Week 9 are completing passes with a CPOE of +0.4%, slightly overperforming expectations.
- QBs averaging <12 FPPG through Week 9 are completing passes with a CPOE of minus-2.1% clearly underperforming expectations.
That's it for today. Until we meet again next week, I hope you can crush your waiver wire, set up the best possible lineup, and get ready for another weekend full of fireworks!
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