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You won't believe it, but you weren't dreaming: the fantasy football regular season is almost over (in most leagues and for our purposes at least; some of y'all will still keep on going, you sickos), and it's time to gear up for the last regular-season week of play before turning our attention to the playoffs. It's just four more weeks of fantasy contests for most GMs out there, so if you're still alive and trying to make a playoff run ending in a championship, you better not let any valuable bit of information slip through the cracks.
To gain the biggest edge in your fantasy football league, it's necessary to understand how to apply the advanced statistics being used in sports nowadays. Back in the day, it was all about wins and losses, passing yards, and touchdowns scored. It's not that those stats are now worthless, they just don't offer enough information to savvy analysts. While football is still in its infancy compared to baseball in terms of analytics, the evolution the sport has seen lately in those terms is notable.
Each week, I'll be tackling NFL's Next Gen Stats, bringing you data from the previous week's games with notable takeaways you should consider when assessing fantasy players for the upcoming week. In case you're new to the series, or Next Gen Stats altogether, I recommend you read our NGS-primer. Now, let's get to the data!
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Week 13 - TE/WR Air Yards Don't Lie - NextGenStats
If you remember the introductory post to the series, you already know Air Yards tell us the vertical yards on a pass attempt from the line of scrimmage to the point where the ball was caught by the receiver (or the catch failed to be completed). I will be using mainly two metrics here: Average Targeted Air Yards (TAY) and %Share of Team's Air Yards (TAY%). TAY tells us how many air yards a receiver is thrown per target. TAY% measures the percentage of air yards a receiver was thrown at over the sum of his team's total air yards.
With four weeks in the books, we can (at least moderately) say that we have enough data to assess what and what not is going on at the wide receiver and tight end positions. This doesn't mean air yard values are already stabilized, not close to it, but it is highly probable that what we see in Weeks 1-4 stays mostly the same at least in the short-to-mid-term future, with high chances of staying on similar levels for the full season.
Today, I'll present each of the stats from the NFL's advanced metrics site, its correlation with receiver fantasy points, and a list of leaders and trailers in each category, along with some notes and takeaways on both the players' and the metrics' impact on fantasy football as a whole.
So let's dive in. Note: The cutoff is set at 33 targets for both WR and TE.
Cushion / Separation
Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): negative-6% / 2%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
Most players with high SEP values are tight ends. That comes down to them not being covered as tightly as other, more skillful receivers. Also, tight ends are often used as security blankets, so they're thrown passes only when they're quite open.
Most tight ends also find it hard to really separate from defenders because of their frames and how their bodies are built. Let's say they're not speedsters.
This week's SEP leaderboard comes loaded with tight ends once more. Last time we checked, seven of the top-eight players in SEP were tight ends. That figure is now up to 10 of the top-11 players in that leaderboard with TE Irv Smith Jr. leading the league all by himself with 4.5 such yards.
In fact, there are 13 tight ends in the top-20 players leading the SEP race through Week 13. The only WR with a SEP into the 4.0+ realm is Greg Dortch with no other player at the position averaging more than 3.8 such yards.
On average, players at the TE position are keeping up a 3.4 SEP through Week 13 while WRs sit at a lower figure of just 2.9 yards.
Only five of 32 (16%) TEs qualified for this week's leaderboard have a SEP below 2.9 yards, the average of the whole WR cohort. On the other hand, only 14 of 78 (18%) qualified WRs have a SEP above 3.4 yards (the TE cohort average).
When it comes to players with bulkier workloads (min. 50 targets instead of 33), the average SEP in the NFL comes out at 3.0 yards with TEs at 3.3 yards and WRs at 2.9.
There are 79 players in the 50+ targets group, and they are currently averaging a 6.1 CUSH between all of them. In this case, though, TEs have a lower figure (6.0) than WRs (6.1) although the difference is neglectable.
Putting CUSH+SEP together, one player stands out among all 123 qualified players through Week 13: DeVante Parker with a 5.2 figure. No other NFL player is below 6.9 yards and Allen Robinson II is the only pass catcher averaging fewer than 7.3 CUSH+SEP to date.
David Njoku and Juwan Johnson are the two tight ends with the lowest combined yardage, both tied at 8.0 yards putting together their average cushion and separation figures. Njoku separates more than Johnson and the latter is handed more room on the LOS by defenders with a larger CUSH in comparison.
Five players have CUSH+SEP figures of 11+ yards through Week 13: two tight ends (Robert Tonyan and Kylen Granson) and three wide receivers (Greg Dortch, Rondale Moore, and Tyler Lockett).
Three Seattle Seahawks have a top-10 CUSH+SEP figure to date: Lockett, Will Dissly, and Noah Fant. The two tight ends have not cracked the 50-target threshold, though. Arizona is the only other team with three players inside the top-30, although Marquise Brown ranks exactly 30th.
Only five players of 30 with a CUSH+SEP above 10.0 yards are averaging more than 12 PPR points per game. Nearly half of the 30 (14) players are averaging fewer than 8.0 FPPG.
Here is the fantasy report for the SEP and CUSH leaderboards after Week 13:
- Averages for fantasy WR/TE with 15+ FPPG: 6.1 CUSH, 3.0 SEP
- Averages for fantasy WR/TE with <9 FPPG: 6.2 CUSH, 3.1 SEP
In a few words: don't rely on CUSH or SEP. Those are a couple of descriptive, not predictive stats and often come in all shapes and sizes without much predictability to them.
Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): 6% / 62%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
Opportunity trumps everything in fantasy football, and it can be seen in the highly related link between the percentage of yards a team/QB throws toward a player and the fantasy points he scores.
Five players still boast a TAY% above 40 percent through Week 13 and into the home stretch of the season. Of the five, just three (Justin Jefferson, Davante Adams, and CeeDee Lamb) have broken the 100-target barrier.
Rookie Chris Olave is the only pass catcher posting both a TAY above 14.0 yards down the field (14.6) and a TAY% above 28.1 percent (38.4%).
Christian Kirk (30.8 TAY%) and Brandon Aiyuk (30%) are the only players getting at least a 30 percent share of their team's total air yards while getting targeted less than 9.5 yards downfield on average. The average TAY% for players with that aDOT or a short one sits at a paltry 14% in comparison.
Pass catchers with at least 25% of all of their team air yards (TAY%) are getting targeted at 11.5 aDOT.
Players who get targeted at 11.5+ aDOT have accrued an average of 26.2% of their team air yards.
Fewer than half (seven) of the 19 players with aDOTs of more than 13 yards downfield are averaging double-digit PPR points per game. Four of the 19 are averaging fewer than 8.0 PPR points per game.
At the other end of the spectrum, similarly, there are 22 players with aDOT figures below 7.0 yards and only eight of them are averaging double-digit PPR points per game. Again, there are seven players with averages below 8.0 PPR per game among those in that 22-player group.
Qualified players with aDOT figures below 7.5 yards (30 of them) have combined to score 79 touchdowns. Those with aDOT figures above 12 yards (28 of them) have combined for the same 79 touchdowns.
Players with 6+ touchdowns on the season have an average TAY of 10.7 yards downfield and a TAY% of 31.8 percent. Players with one or no touchdowns are posting averages of 9.8 TAY and 16.7 percent TAY%.
DeAndre Hopkins is the only player averaging 20+ PPR per game, having fewer than 21% of all of his team's total air yards. Chris Godwin is the only one with an average of 14.5+ PPR per game at a TAY% lower than 20 percent.
Robert Woods has been atrociously relied upon by Tennessee. He is averaging 6.1 PPR per game while having 24% of the Titans' total air yards. Teammate Nick Westbrook-Ikhine hasn't been much better (6.6 PPR per game) while getting a 20.8 TAY% himself.
Receptions / Targets / Catch% / Touchdowns
Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): 82% / 80% / 32% / 74%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
Obviously, receptions trump targets in terms of fantasy-point production (in PPR formats, that is) because, well, they hand out actual fantasy points.
All but two players in the top-25 fantasy leaderboard (FPPG) through Week 13 have caught at least 50 passes. Those two, though, have caught 49 passes each.
Brandon Aiyuk is the next-best PPR points per game average while having fewer than 50 receptions, boasting a super low 38-reception figure through Week 13 but still scoring WR2-level fantasy points on a weekly basis.
The four players with more than 120 targets are all averaging at least 22 PPR points per game. Davante Adams, though, is the absolute best among them because he's got the second-highest PPR average while having caught just 79 passes.
Of course, what Adams is giving up in receptions (fourth-most), he's making up for with 12 touchdowns (tied for most).
Surprisingly, Travis Kelce is the one leading the league in scores with 12, same as WR Davante Adams. No other tight end has even half of that tally, with a three-way tie at five TDs between Mark Andrews, Cole Kmet, and Juwan Johnson.
Actually, when it comes to wide receivers, only six WRs have at least half of Adams' 12 touchdowns through Week 13, so it's not that wideouts are scoring in gaudy terms as a whole either.
Green Bay Packers rookie Christian Watson has scored seven TDs on just 40 targets and 25 receptions to date. He's averaging a touchdown every 3.6 targets, leading the league on the scoring efficiency front. Jahan Dotson is second (five TDs on 35 targets) with Gabe Davis is a distant third (six touchdowns in 67 targets).
We're back at having some players qualifying for this week's leaderboard while not having scored a single touchdown to date. There are six of them, four WRs and two TEs.
Diontae Johnson and Tyler Higbee lead (trail?) those two positional groups with the least efficient play as they have yet to score a TD even though they've been targeted 105 and 78 times, respectively.
Miami Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle is the only player averaging more than 16 YPR on 50+ receptions through Week 13. A.J. Brown is next but down at 15.6 YPR on average.
Tyler Higbee sits at the other end with only 8.9 YPR on 50+ receptions. Diontae Johnson has the lowest average among WRs at 9.3 YPR.
Watson has the best target-to-touchdown conversion ratio, turning 18% of his total targets through Week 13 into scores. Dotson is turning 14% and Hardman follows with a 12% ratio. Courtland Sutton's 1% is at the other end among players with at least one TD scored this season (one score on 89 targets).
"Total" Yards (Air Yds + YAC) / "Air" Yards / YAC%
Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): 87% / 78% / negative-2%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
Nothing surprising here, as receiving yardage is factored into the calculation of fantasy points without much hard math involved. Leaders in yardage average the most fantasy points, with the touchdowns and receptions just being a weekly bonus to their tallies.
Tyreek Hill keeps leading the way on the receiving yards end with more than 100 over second-best Justin Jefferson. They are only separated by eight targets through Week 13, so if they both keep their productive pace, it'll take an effort for Jefferson to outperform Hill when all is said and done.
There is a chance around 15-to-20 players end up crossing the 1,000-yard mark this season. Four have already broken it while three more are just 50 yards shy of making it all the way there with multiple weeks still to be played. Nine players have already reached 900+ yards over the season.
Hill's volume obviously helps him lead the aYDS leaderboard, too, but the actual-best player at it from a per-reception perspective is Gabe Davis (15.3 aYDS/R) for the second check in a row.
The closest player to Davis on that front is DeVante Parker (14.0), although he's been so bad overall that this doesn't come even close to fixing his season all things considered.
Two players from the Cardinals organization are in the top-three pass catchers at YAC% with figures of 69.4% and 70.5%. Deebo Samuel leads the league, though, at a massive 78.2%. The distance between Samuel and Rondale Moore (second) is the same as the distance between Moore and seventh-place Chris Moore.
A.J. Green (17) is the only qualified player with fewer than 36 YAC through Week 13. Scotty Miller is the only other player still to cross the 50-YAC mark to date while qualifying. Both have been targeted 36 times this season.
Kelce leads the league in YAC with 501. He's the only player through Week 13 to have already crossed the 500-YAC mark... and he's a tight end! The next TE on that leaderboard is Dallas Goedert down at 370 YAC, followed by T.J. Hockenson (308). No other TE has more than 280 YAC.
Yards After Catch / Expected YAC / YAC Above Expectation
Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): 8% / 8% / 18%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
King Deebo is still reigning on the YAC/R front thanks to his 8.9 figure. That's down a notch from the ridiculous 9.4 YAC/R average he posted three weeks ago. Only one player comes even remotely close, Dallas Goedert with an 8.6 figure. Both have topped at 50 receptions at most, although Deebo has seen 86 targets to Goedert's low 53.
That said, Deebo is not the greatest overperformer in the NFL. That title belongs to Terrace Marshall Jr. (in a league of his own with 3.1 YACOE), who is also followed by Trent Sherfield before Deebo pops up on the leaderboard.
In Deebo's favor, though, is the fact that those other two WRs have only seen 34 and 38 targets, respectively. Deebo is already at 86 and has more receptions (50) than those two have targets through Week 13.
T.J. Hockenson is the only tight end outperforming the model by more than 2.0 full YAC per reception. Goedert and Kelce round up the top-three, already down at 1.8 YACOE.
There are six players underperforming the expectations by at least one full yard with four WRs and two TEs in that group. Scotty Miller trails everybody at minus-1.4 followed by Richie James. Robert Tonyan and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are the only two players with at least minus-1.0 YACOE with more than 41 targets among those in that six-man group.
The model has three players with xYAC marks above 6.0 yards: Deebo, Foster Moreau, and Dallas Goedert. All three are beating those expectations by at least one full yard.
On the other hand, A.J. Green and rookie George Pickens are the only two players expected to have averaged fewer than 2.0 YAC per reception. Pickens has been able to post 2.3 yards (+0.4) but Green has been incredibly bad, averaging minus-0.7 yards below expectations.
As always, you can look at this from two different angles: over/underperformance in YAC related to FPPG, and the other way around.
- Players averaging 15+ FPPG are outperforming their xYAC/R by an average of 0.8 yards
- Players averaging <10 FPPG are also outperforming their figures, but only by 0.3 yards.
From the other perspective:
- Players with YACAE figures above 1.0 yards are averaging 11.8 FPPG
- Players with YACAE figures below 0.0 yards are averaging 8.5 FPPG.
That's it for today. Until we meet again next week, I hope you can crush your waiver wire, set up the best possible lineup, and get ready for another weekend full of fireworks!
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