NextGen Stats - Running Back Breakdowns and Takeaways

Things finally got serious. If you're here, it's only because one of two reasons: 1) you have followed the series all along and want to keep reading just so you don't feel bad with yourself, or 2) you won your first round of the fantasy playoffs and are still on the lookout for the smallest of tidbits that can help you gain an edge over your next opponent and make it to the final. No matter what, I'm here to help you both get entertained and win your matchups. You are limited now with only two weeks to go. Trades are a non-factor. The waiver wire is drained of talent. But there are still things to know that can help you make the decision that ultimately gets you that coveted W and gets you closer to the trophy in Week 16.

To gain the biggest edge in your fantasy football league, it's necessary to understand how to apply the advanced statistics being used in sports nowadays. Back in the day, it was all about wins and losses, passing yards, and touchdowns scored. It's not that those stats are now worthless, they just don't offer enough information to savvy analysts. While football is still in its infancy compared to baseball in terms of analytics, the evolution the sport has seen lately in those terms is notable.

Each week, I'll be tackling NFL's Next Gen Stats, bringing you data from the previous week's games with notable takeaways you should consider when assessing fantasy players for the upcoming week. In case you're new to the series, or Next Gen Stats altogether, I recommend you read our NGS-primer. Now, let's get to the data!

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Week 14 - The Running Game Is Alive!

One of the most important concepts to consider when analyzing players are Air Yards. The metrics around it are key to know who is really over-performing or under-performing among receivers and passers, but it doesn't have much to do with rushers. For this last group, which mostly features on the ground, we can look at time, speed, and efficiency metrics.

Today, I'll present each of the stats from the NFL's advanced metrics site, its correlation with rushers-fantasy points, and a list of leaders and trailers in each category along with some notes and takeaways on both the players' and the metrics' impact on fantasy football as a whole.

For the 2020 season, the NFL has introduced the concepts of:

• Expected Rushing Yards (xRY; How many rushing yards is a ball-carrier expected to gain on a given carry based on the relative location, speed and direction of blockers and defenders?)
• Rushing Yards Over Expectation (RYOE; The difference between actual rushing yards and expected rushing yards on an individual play or series of plays)
• Rush Pct Over Expected (ROE%; The percentage of runs where a ball-carrier gained more yards than expected)

I will only focus on fantasy production as pure rushers, eliminating the pass-catching element from their game. This will concentrate entirely on their total rushing yardage and rushing touchdowns in terms of the fantasy points per game numbers shown (labeled ruFP/G). I will also include an extra column, "ruFP/15Att", which is accounts for the fantasy points a rusher is getting per 15 rushing attempts, which would be considered an RB1 workload on average and allows us to know how different players in different roles would be doing if given the same opportunities.

So let's dive in. Note: The cutoff is set at 70 rushing attempts.

 

Efficiency

Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points: negative-32%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• Remember, the most "efficient" a rusher is, the least amount of yards he "wastes" going headfirst toward the opposition goal line in a straight route. The lower the number, the more north/south the runner.
• As is perfectly reason, each passing week it's harder to find huge swings in the correlation values. That is why we were looking at a strong, negative-38% relationship between EFF and ruFP/G the lats time we checked and it has barely moved three weeks after that.
• Looking at it from an EFF-perspective, here are the results:
  • Top-10 EFF players (lowest values): 8.5 ruFP/G, and 11.1 ruFP/15att
  • Bottom-10 EFF players (higher values): 5.1 ruFP/G, and 8.2 ruFP/15att
• And from a ruFP/G perspective:
  • Top-10 ruFP/G players: 3.70 EFF on average
  • Bottom-10 ruFP/G players: 4.11 EFF on average
• As can be easily seen, the inverse correlation definitely exists, making the most efficient rushers (those with lower EFF marks) the most valuable in fantasy football by a lot.
• Just look at the difference in a pro-rated FP per 15 ruAtt. The least efficient rushers would average 8.2 ruFP/15att, while the most efficient rushers are already averaging 8.5 ruFP/G no matter their workloads.

• While efficiency marks have steadily gone down through the season (nobody has been below 3.0 since Week 2), the truth is that Wayne Gallman has done the greatest effort to get the closest to that point. He's the only rusher with a mark below 3.1 with more than 80 percent of the season completed.
• On a much heavier workload, though, Ronald Jones II is the one "leading" all rushers with his 3.2 mark and 180 rushing attempts (compared to Gallman's 121 and Gus Edwards' 108).

• As many as 19 of the top-20 most-efficient rushers are averaging more than 8.0 fantasy points per 15att. Their actual ruFP/G vary between 3.6 (Jamaal Williams) and 18.2 (Derrick Henry) due to their usage, but on a similar workload, all of them would thrive.
• That's not the case among the 20 least-efficient rushers: almost half of them (nine) are averaging below 8.0 FP per 15att with only two (Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs) above 10.0 actual ruFP/G on the season.

• Staying in the "usage" part of the leaderboards, and linking it with EFF, there are 35 qualified (min. 70 ruAtt) rushers with at least 100 carries through Week 14. They are averaging a 3.80 EFF mark. The other 20 qualified RBs (<100 carries) have a much higher mark with an EFF of 4.03.

• Only 8 of 18 rushers with 150+ carries on the season are averaging 10+ ruFP/G through W14.
• Half those 18 rushers are averaging 10+ ruFP per 15 rushing attempts.
• That group of 18 rushers has an average EFF of 3.82.

• Only 3 of 37 rushers with <150 carries are averaging 10+ ruFP/G.
• Of those 37, just 11 are averaging 10+ ruFP per 15 rushing attempts.
• The 37-player group is averaging a 3.92 EFF through W14.

 

Percentage of Stacked Boxes Faced

Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points: 8%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• The correlation between stacked boxes and fantasy points has never been overly big, and it is more descriptive than anything else. It was positive in Week 8 after starting the season on the negative side of the spectrum, and it has remained there through Week 14 losing strength in its correlation with ruFP/G steadily (it's gone from 14% to a measly 9%, to now an even lower 8%).
• Don't throw away stacked boxes completely given that there normally is an almost non-existent relationship, but keep in mind that it is heavily related to the role a player has on his offense and to what teams expect from him.

• God bless Peyton Barber because the poor man has faced the most (by a mile) stacked boxes as a percentage of his total carries through the season at an incredible 44.7 percent rate.
• No other player is currently at 40%, with only two (Cam Akers and Damien Harris) at a relatively close 39+ percent.
• Truth be told, though, Barber has only rushed the ball 85 times through W14. Among players with at least 150 carries, the highest stacked-box rate comes from Nick Chubb at 34.7 percent, already 10 (!) percentage points below Barber's mark.

• The top-12 stacked-box endurers are seeing such defensive alignments in at least 30 percent of their carries.
• Of those 12 players, only Gallman, Gus Edwards, Nick Chubb, and Dalvin Cook are putting up more than 10 ruFP per 15 rushing attempts. Chubb and Cook are the only two with 10+ actual ruFP/G, taking their roles/usage into account.

• The bottom-12 stacked-box endurers are seeing that alignment in fewer than 15 percent of their carries.
• Only Antonio Gibson, Miles Sanders, Chris Carson, and Alvin Kamara are above 10 ruFP/15att.
• All except Chris Carson are also averaging 10+ actual ruFP/G.

• Cleveland's and Minnesota's rushers are the only pairs of RBs to have faced an average of 37+ percent of stacked boxes. Both Hunt and Chubb are above 32% each, while Cook and Mattison are both above 31%.
• Detroit's rushers are also at 28+ percent both (Peterson and Swift) but Swift barely qualifies with only 77 rushing attempts through the year.

• The top fantasy scorers in ruFP/G (10.0+ on average) have faced stacked boxes in a range between 7.8% and 34.7% of their carries, with an average of 19%. Remember there was almost no correlation between stacked boxes and fantasy points? There you have it.
• Oh, and the same happens at the other end. Up to 15 rushers are averaging <5.0 ruFP/G, and they have faced stacked boxes in a range between 4.4% and 35.7% of their carries, with an average of 19.9%. Very similar marks, yet very different fantasy outcomes.

• Assuming a 15-attempt-prorated ruFP/G for everyone, the 20 RBs averaging 10+ ruFP/15att would be facing stacked boxes in 21.8 percent of their carries.
• On the contrary, the 35 averaging fewer than 10 ruFP/15att would be facing stacked boxes 21.5 percent of their carries. Where's the difference?

• On smaller group-samples, things separate a bit more. Nine rushers would be at 12+ ruFP/15Att. Eight of them are facing stacked boxes at a 10+ percentage rate with the exception of Antonio Gibson.
• As expected, only one of 12 players with averages below 8.0 ruFP/15att (Peyton Barber) is facing more than 23% stacked boxes.

 

Average Time Behind The Line Of Scrimmage

Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points: 21%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• The last time we checked, three weeks ago, this relationship was at a strong enough 24%. It's gone down a bit (21%), but things have not changed that much since then.
• The slower (or more patient) a player is to cross the LOS, the better it goes for him and his fantasy GMs.
• The difference in ruFP/G between the top-15 players in TLOS (lower values) and the bottom-15 (higher TLOS) amounts to 3.0 fantasy points. That's not a league-swinging amount, but high enough to show for the 20+ percent relationship between both variables.

• The race to become the quickest rusher to cross the LOS is getting crowded. We have a tie for first place at 2.51 seconds, a loner in third place followed by another one-man 2.55 average, and then there are three players tied for fifth at 2.59 seconds. With three weeks to go, this is going to be one of the most nerdily-entertaining developments to watch unfold.
• That being said, Ezekiel Elliott merits his own mention as he's at 2.59 while having 211 carries, 31 more than overall-leader Ronald Jones II and 90 more than every other rusher in the TLOS top-7.

• You might think slower rushers are crappy, old veterans not worth rostering. Welp. Nick Chubb has the highest TLOS mark at 3.08, one of only three players above 3.0 seconds (along with Phillip Lindsay and Jerick McKinnon). Oh, and Chubb is also averaging 15.8 ruFP/G (third-most), just in case.
• Leading the league in ruFP/G, Dalvin Cook is averaging 2.9 seconds to cross the LOS. The second-best rusher in ruFP/G, Derrick Henry, leans more toward the mean at 2.76 seconds.

• Players with 10.0+ ruFP/G: average 2.84-second TLOS
• Players with <5.0 ruFP/G: average 2.73-second TLOS
• Players with 10.0+ ruFP/15att: average 2.81-second TLOS
• Players with <8.0 ruFP/15att: average 2.75-second TLOS

 

ATT & YDS & Y/A & TD

Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points: 83% / 90% / 53% / 86%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• We gave props to Nick Chubb for his 6.0 Y/A through Week 11, but that's no more. No one pulling off the feat 14 weeks into the season, although Chubb has been able to retain the lead with his 5.9 average.
• Miles Sanders' 5.7 mark is also outstanding considering he and Chubb have rushed the ball 132+ times each. On a way lower volume, J.K. Dobbins (90 carries, 5.3 Y/A) is third but already below 5.5 yards per carry.

• Five rushers with 200+ rushing attempts through W14. Two rushers with 200+ carries and 5.0+ Y/A: Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook. Both of them have 14 touchdowns on the year and 1,300+ yards on the ground. It comes down to a matter of taste because the two of them have just killed it. Pick your winner.
• Kudos go to James Robinson, the undrafted rookie from the Jags who is already past the 1,000-yard mark along with studs Cook and Henry. Calling him a steal if falling short of praises.

• Remember Payton Barber from the stacked-boxes section above? Well, not only is Barber facing the most stacked boxes per carry, he's also averaging the fewer yards per rushing attempt at a putrid 2.7 yards. He's the only qualified rusher below 3.0 yards through W14.
• Perhaps we should be more worried about Joshua Kelley, though, as his 3.2 mark isn't much better than Barber's yet Kelley has 109 rushing attempts compared to Barber's 85.
• Todd Gurley II is clearly lighting up the alarms of fantasy GMs, though. He has rushed the ball 181 (!) times already yet he's averaging a very low 3.6 Y/A... 9.9 ruFP/G, and an even lower 9.8 ruFP per 15 attempts.

• Back in W11 Dalvin Cook looked like a lock to finish the year as the TD-champ when he had 13 and no other rusher was even at 10.
• Now, 14 weeks into the season, Cook and Henry are tied at the top with 14 touchdowns each. Talk about a close race, folks!
• Oh, and both Antonio Gibson (now injured) and Alvin Kamara have also reached 10 scores already. Things are definitely heating up on this front.

• The most encouraging thing about touchdowns: all qualified rushers (min. 70 rushing attempts) have scored at least one touchdown through W14. Yay!
• Antonio Gibson leads the league in attempts/TD at just 13, followed by both Kamara and Swift with 15 att/TD each.
• On the other end, among RBs with at least two TDs on the year, Damien Harris ranks last with 69 att/TD, followed by Myles Gaskin (61) and Jamaal Williams (57).

• Of course, Frank Gore is still the least efficient rusher on scoring terms with just one touchdown on his 150 rushing attempts... But hey, it's the Jets we're talking about here, so no surprises.

 

YDS & RYOE & Y/A & RYOE/A & ROE%

Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points: 90% / 67% / 53% / 53% / 33%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• Starting this year, the NFL has introduced the concept of Rushing Yards Over Expectation. Basically, it comes down to the extra yards a rusher gained (or lost) in a given play given the context of that play (down, distance, etc...).
• The RYOE metric indicates how many extra yards the rusher gained/lost on his carries over/under those he actually rushed for. Ex: YDS = 100, RYOE = 10, then the rusher was expected to rush for 90 yards, but overperformed that mark by 10 (RYOE) thus getting to 100.
• The RYOE/A metric indicates the average extra yards gained/lost per rushing attempt. Ex: Y/A = 0.5, RYOE/A = -1.5, then the rusher was expected to rush for 2.0 Y/A but underperformed that mark by -1.5 (RYOE) thus getting 0.5 Y/A.
• The ROE% metric indicates the percentage of rushing attempts the rusher exceeded the expected yards (gained more yards than expected). Ex: ATT = 10, ROE% = 50.0, then the rusher gained more yards than expected in 5 of 10 (50.0%) of his carries.

• Chubb is "overperforming" on a league of his own. Not only is he almost doubling the field in terms of RYOE/A (2.0 compared to the second-highest 1.1 mark), but he's also put on a very high usage and thus is also leading the raw/counting RYOE leaderboard with 292 extra-yards on the year.
• Derrick Henry, who has 266 RYOE himself, has reached that number to the tune of 297 carries compared to Chubb's 150, almost twice (!) as many.
• Among super-heavily-used players (200+ carries), though, Henry and Cook are still reigning. Both of them have 270+ RYOE through W14 with averages of 0.9 and 0.7 respectively. No other such rusher is at more than 58 RYOE or averaging more than 0.3 RYOE/A.

• Only five running backs are underperforming to less than -0.5 RYOE. Nobody is at negative-1.0 ROYE/A, although Duke Johnson has maintained the "lead" at -0.9.
• Not the worst (although barely) rusher of all qualified ones, Adrian Peterson could very well be considered such the man. AP has rushed for 106 fewer yards than he should have through Week 14, posting a negative-0.8 RYOE/A in a much heavier usage than Duke. Peterson has 139 carries compared to Johnson's 77.
• Only two players are at or below -0.4 RYOE/A while having 130+ rushing attempts through the year: Peterson, Gurley (181 carries, -0.5), Gore (150, -0.4), and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (167, -0.4).

• It is always a pleasure when real-life data aligns so well with fantasy performances:
  • Underperforming rushers (<0.0 RYOE) are averaging 5.8 ruFP/G, and 8.2 ruFP/15att.
  • Rushers performing to the expectations (0.0 RYOE) are averaging 6.8 ruFP/G, and 10.0 ruFP/15att.
  • Overperforming rushers (0.1+ RYOE) are averaging 7.2 ruFP/G, and 9.5 ruFP/15att.

• Although Nick Chubb is getting the most yards over expectations per attempt (2.1), he's not racking up yards over expectations at the highest rate.
• That would be, for the second time in a row, Chris Carson, who is beating expectations in 51.5 percent of his carries and is now the only other player above 50 percent. Gus Edwards comes in second already at 48.6 percent.
• Among players with 120+ carries through W14, Gallman ranks first in ROE% (48.3%), followed by Cook and Kareem Hunt (tied at 45.2%).
• Adrian Peterson is the lone qualified rusher to beat his expected yardage in fewer than 25 percent of his total rushing attempts. Three more players are below 30%: Duke Johnson, Joshua Kelley, and Carlos Hyde.
• Peterson and Kelley are the only ones in that group with more than 77 carries. All four are at-or-below -0.5 RYOE per attempt.

• We can easily calculate the "expected" yards per carry for running backs. Miles Sanders would top that leaderboard with 5.0 eY/A (the only player at 5.0+ yards), followed by Chase Edmonds (4.9) and Brian Hill/CEH (both at 4.7).
• Jerrick McKinnon is the only player who has done exactly what the model says he should have: there is no difference between his 3.9 Y/A... and his 3.9 eY/A.

That's it for today. Until we meet again next week, I hope you can crush your waiver wire, set up the best possible lineup, and get ready for another weekend full of fireworks while you make it to Championship Sunday!

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