RADIO
Welcome to the second part of RotoBaller's new series taking a close look at selected universally-owned star players. NBA writer Nate Derosena will take a fresh look at players that have fantasy basketball owners wondering -- what's up? Where's the big jump in stats you were expecting? Where were the big numbers he was producing in the past? Or alternately, can his current production be sustained?
In our first installment, we looked at a young star who hasn't quite taken the leap he was expected to -- Andrew Wiggins. This time, Nate will switch gears and take a look at a player who has taken a leap to the next level, becoming one of the elite scoring threats in the NBA and a core piece of many championship level fantasy basketball rosters.
NBA Player Analysis: Is Danilo Gallinari for Real?
Danilo Gallinari of the Denver Nuggets has been having himself quite a season this year. After missing a huge portion of the last three NBA seasons, Gallinari has played in 48 of a possible 54 games this season. He had previously only played in more than 60 games twice in his career. Meanwhile, he is averaging career highs in points and rebounds, serving as the leading scorer on a Denver Nuggets squad that's been a respectable sort of bad after many expected them to be awful.
The sixth year man from Italy has been balling like never before. He's been a 2nd round value in fantasy leagues after largely being drafted in the 6th round in most leagues (side note: according to Yahoo! data on ADP, the four SF-eligible players drafted immediately before Gallinari on average were Kyle Korver, Andrew Wiggins, Danny Green, and DeMarre Carroll... ouch).
Gallinari is averaging over 23 points per game in 2016 (since returning from an ankle injury on January 2nd) and many are wondering if he can he keep this up. He is getting to the free throw line an absurd amount this year -- 8.4 FTA per 36 min, compared to 5.3 FTA per 36 from 2011-12 to 2014-15. This includes 10.0 FTA since January 2nd, and he is taking advantage by making 88 percent of his free throws this season.
His frequent trips to the charity stripe could be credited to his quick decision-making. Defenses worried about his three point shooting have had a hard time reacting to when he drives to basket, so they are left with no choice but to foul him. This season Gallinari has been testing opponents by attacking the basket more often when the defense is over-committing to stop his perimeter shooting. He doesn't give defenders much time to react in the process, choosing whether to shoot or drive very quickly. According to NBA player tracking data, in five games between January 2nd and January 10th, he’d only had the ball for six or more seconds in a possession 9.8 percent of the time, and he had one game in which he never was on the ball that long.
Gallinari is also finishing at the rim, and not just looking to create contact. His decisiveness in attacking the rim has allowed him to make 60.5 percent of his shots at the rim in games between January 2nd and January 13th, as opposed to just 47.2 percent in the other 27 games preceding that.
Staying healthy has been major to Gallo’s career season. He has only missed six games this year due to the aforementioned ankle injury, so his consistency and decisiveness have helped him gain comfort and improve his game. “He’s been so impressive,” Nuggets coach Michael Malone said. “While he was out with the ankle injury we had some great conversations. We talked about what we want to do with this team, how he needs to play. And to his credit it wasn’t just talk. He’s come out and followed up with his actions.”
His improvement this season has not gone unnoticed around the league. With the NBA trade deadline upon us, it was reported by ESPN.com’s Chris Broussard that the Clippers were interested in acquiring Gallo in a trade. “I’ve been told that the Clippers actually called Denver and offered Blake Griffin and Lance Stephenson for Danilo Gallinari, Kenneth Faried, Will Barton, and Nikola Jokic, and Denver turned it down because Blake will be a free agent after next season” said Broussard. While the inclusion of the young Jokic was probably the primary reason Denver turned down the deal, it's amazing that Gallinari has reached the point where he can be considered by a contending team as the core piece of a deal for a superstar player like Griffin.
Though the Nuggets are currently in 11th place in the Western Conference, they are only 4.5 games out of the 8th seed with 28 games to play. They'll almost certainly fall short of the playoffs, but they're close enough to want to keep fighting, growing as a team, and playing good basketball. The only player they parted with at the trade deadline was Randy Foye, who was struggling and reduced to a small bench role for the team anyway. Expect Gallo to keep putting up good numbers for the Nuggets through the end of the year, so long as he manages to remain healthy.
