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Jake Finnen provides his NBA DFS prop picks for Wednesday, March 3rd, 2021 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy basketball advice.
With 10 games Wednesday, we are sure to see more than a few 30-point games. Between the Bulls-Pelicans and Warriors-Trail Blazers, there will be plenty of opportunities to ride the over, but make sure you are picking and choosing the right matchups within each contest. Both Steph Curry and Damian Lillard like to engage in shooting contests mid-game, so there should be little to worry about in terms of both getting up enough shots.
Outside of the two games that are already projected to be high-scoring, the Timberwolves and Hornets are set to play a game that is going to feature absolutely no defense and a ton of missed shots. Fortunately, both teams also have plenty of players that are capable of exposing tough matchups, so regardless, the star players have maximum upside.
MonkeyKnifeFight.com continues to be ahead of the curve with their canceling of contests amid postponements, so don't worry about wasting money on a player or game that might not play. As always, you can find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter with any questions, especially since lines and players are subject to change throughout the day.
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IND @ CLE
Collin Sexton (CLE) MORE 24.5 Points - Domantas Sabonis (IND) MORE 22.5 Points
Collin Sexton is going to have some inflated averages for the next week or two after scoring 39 points against the Rockets, but Houston has one of the worst defenses in the league. He won't get the same looks against the Pacers, and even if he does, they will eventually recognize and adapt. He is still a strong scorer, but his inability to hit outside shots with consistency allows for better perimeter platers to thrive against a quality interior defensive presence.
The Cavaliers only have Jarrett Allen to roam the paint every night, but that doesn't mean he hasn't been a force against opposing bigs. He won't stop Domantas Sabonis from getting to his spots, but he will force Sabonis to be more of a passer, rather than a scorer. When Sabonis isn't in a position to be swarmed by Allen in the paint, he is going to get a shot up. There's a better chance he sees open looks with Malcolm Brogdon and T.J. McConnell giving him support, so don't be turned away just because the Cavaliers have one really tall player that is capable of blocking shots.
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UTA @ NOP
Joel Embiid (PHI) MORE 29.5 Points - Donovan Mitchell (UTA) LESS 24.5
The Utah Jazz might of been having a great run, but they aren't perfect. They are bound to lose countless more games at the hands of good teams, and good players will give their defense trouble no matter what their defensive rating is. Joel Embiid takes pride in exposing Rudy Gobert's defense, and even though Gobert had has his laughs in terms of team success and winning, Embiid puts down stats. The game needs to stay close for a truly overwhelming stat line, but even if it doesn't, Embiid will carry the workload in the first half.
Since Donovan Mitchell started becoming a primary playmaker for the Jazz, his scoring production has bounced around. Mitchell plays to his strengths, and although we'd like to see more volume shooting in this case specifically, he won't be the one taking all the shots against a good defense. He will get to the rim and undoubtedly score, but he'll need to be spraying from deep to ensure a high-scoring night.
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BKN @ HOU
Kyrie Irving (BKN) MORE 30.5 Points - John Wall (HOU) MORE 23.5
This is one of the first times Kyrie Irving's projected point total is over 30 points, but that isn't an indication of anything really. Irving is going to score, that doesn't need to be explained, but until Kevin Durant is back, even Irving knows he can't win games on his own. Throughout this season, Irving has taken on a few roles, and lately his isolation scoring has been his most dominant trait. The Rockets defense has been pretty terrible, but that isn't enough for anyone to really count out Houston.
Brooklyn's defense has been just as bad at times and John Wall is going to have just as much success against this backcourt, as Irivng will have against Houston's. The points will come from everywhere, but the two most obvious sources have upside, mainly because they are guarding each other and don't put forth much effort on that side of the ball.
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CHA @ POR
Nikola Vucevic (ORL) MORE 25.5 Points - Trae Young (ATL) MORE 25.5
It's hard to see either hitting the under here because of how successful they've been against much tougher opponents, but both Trae Young and Nikola Vucevic are interesting prospects for the over in this situation. First off, the Magic do not currently have a smaller guard on the roster that will enjoy putting up with Young for 30 minutes. There is no denying how easy it will be for Young to get space, it's just whether or not the Magic will force him off the three-point line, something they don't and haven't prioritized as a defense thus far.
For Vucevic, he faces Clint Capela, who has never been an easy task to deal with for any center. That being said, guarding Vucevic isn't a walk in the park by any means. Capela is going to contest shots and force the Magic center to hit outside shots, but that really isn't a problem for him, especially lately. The return of Evan Fournier just offers another player willing to run the pick-and-roll with Vuc, so if anything, his upside rises and falls with how he is playing that night. Defenses and matchups aren't going to affect him as much as his own consistency will.
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