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The 2021 NBA season is finally underway and that means our new friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks has two types of games. The first type of game is known as Fantasy Score, which consists of selecting various players and trying to determine if they will go over or under their projected fantasy points in a game. The second game is known as Single Stat. For NBA, Single Stat consists of points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers made, and free throws made, in which you determine if the player in question will go over or under their projected total. You can mix and match players from each type of game in your entry or select all of your plays from the same type of game. Once you have selected your players and props, you can choose the aforementioned flex play or power play option. Today, we will look at some single-stat scores for tonight, October 18th.
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Single Stat NBA Totals
Editor's Note: Prize Picks prop totals are not always available first thing in the morning, so check back during the day as other props may be added during the day.
Dorian Finney-Smith OVER 6 Rebounds - I'll be attacking my favorite game on the slate tonight, a Texas-sized matchup between Houston and Dallas, with two overs and an under. Starting with Finney-Smith's rebound total. He's hit this both number in both games the Mavs have played this season, as well as four of five dating back to last season. I expect him to play at least 30 minutes tonight and barring a blowout which would actually work to our advantage here. In his Finney-Smith's last 30 games playing 30 or more minutes, he's hit this number 18 times.
Dorian Finney-Smith UNDER 2 Assists - We go right back to the ironically nicknamed "DFS" for an under this time. Finney-Smith isn't much of an assists guy, averaging only 1.6 assists per game for his career. He's had two in both games this season and has only had more than two in nine of his last 30 games. Houston isn't allowing forwards to pick up dimes this season, as they are allowing just one assist per game through their first three games of the year. It's never fun to sweat an under, but I like the value here.
Kristaps Porzingis OVER 1.5 Made Threes - Porzingis has hit this once in the first two games this season, but not for lack of trying. He's attempted 13 threes in the first two games, with just three of them falling. He's due for positive regression though, as in his last 30 games he's hit this number 18 times (60%). It's a perfect get-right game for him, as Houston has allowed one three made per game by power forwards this season, and two from the center position. No matter what "position" Porzingis is on the floor, we can reasonably expect him to take five or so attempts from beyond the arc. We'll take that value here, and I'll be taking it on the sportsbook as well.
Other Recommendations - Kevin Porter Jr. OVER 4.5 Assists, Evan Fournier OVER 14.5 Points, Rudy Gobert OVER 12.5 Points
Overall recommendation for this play: FLEX
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