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The 2023-2024 NBA season is here, and our friends over at PrizePicks still have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power or flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks has two types of games. The first type of game is known as Fantasy Score, which consists of selecting various players and trying to determine if they will go over or under their projected fantasy points in a game. The second game is known as Single Stat. For the NBA, Single Stat consists of points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers made, and free throws made, in which you determine if the player in question will go over or under their projected total. You can mix and match players from each type of game in your entry or select all of your plays from the same type of game. Once you have selected your players and props, you can choose the aforementioned flex play or power play option. Today, we will look at some single-stat scores for tonight, March 15.
Single Stat NBA Totals - DFS Prop Picks
Editor's Note: Prize Picks prop totals are not always available first thing in the morning, so check back during the day, as other props may be added during the day.
Michael Porter Jr. OVER 17.5 Points - The Denver Nuggets play the San Antonio Spurs on Friday night. Considering the talent gap between the two teams, I predict Michael Porter Jr. will lead the defending NBA champions in scoring over the lottery-bound Spurs. Over the Missouri alum's previous five contests, he averaged 18.4 PTs, which covers the over on Friday's 17.5 line.
MPJ last 10 games:
20.1 PPG
7.7 RPG
55/41/92% (!!)Nuggets are 9-1 in that stretch. https://t.co/wV2GiH4nRA
— StatMuse (@statmuse) March 13, 2024
Aside from recent history, Porter Jr.'s success against the Spurs occurred last November, in which the Nuggets forward scored 25 PTs on 44 percent three-PT shooting. I see the elite two-man unit of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray taking a backseat while Porter Jr. smoothly drives Denver to its destination.
Jimmy Butler UNDER 22.5 Points - In today's NBA, taking the under on PTs is typically considered a bad bet in a game where the average offensive rating ascends to a ridiculous level. However, "Regular Season" Jimmy Butler is the evil twin to "Playoff" Butler. Too many times has Butler burned me on prop bets regarding PTs scored. Furthermore, the last time I bet the under on Butler PTs, I covered.
The Miami Heat appear in a less-than-stellar matchup against the Detroit Pistons on Friday evening. It's plausible to assume Butler doesn't need to fast-forward the clock to his prime postseason form to best the miserable Pistons. PrizePicks set the PT total at 22.5, which I see Butler going under, as he averaged 19 PTs in his previous five games.
Kelly Olynyk UNDER 2.5 Turnovers - Where else are you getting Kelly Olynyk prop bets aside from RotoBaller? PrizePicks set a relatively high turnover line (2.5) for Olynyk in light of two putrid performances in his past five games. The two teams in question are the Portland Trail Blazers and the Pistons. I think the factor of Olynyk's abnormal turnover rate occurred due to the freeness of his game against lesser opponents.
The Toronto Raptors play the fourth-ranked defensive rating Orlando Magic on Friday evening. I predict Olynyk's possessions will tighten up with an elite defense opposing the Raptors.
Paolo Banchero OVER 1.5 BLKS+STLS - While I don't see Paolo Banchero as the leader in Orlando's fourth-ranked defensive rating, the Duke alum's athleticism helps the cause significantly. Over Orlando's past five contests, Banchero averaged a combined two blocks and steals. Of the five games, Banchero exploded for six combined BLKs and STLs against the New York Knicks. Although the Raptors don't force pressure on defenses, it's plausible Banchero trips into covering the over on the combined 1.5 BLKs and STLs line.
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