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Chris Wassel's NBA betting picks for 1/15/20. He analyzes NBA Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets including spreads and over/unders.
It is a new beginning on RotoBaller as we dive back into NBA betting. At first, bear with us with the columns and the hope is for an expansion of not just NBA betting but who knows what else may come.
I'm here to break down each team's spot, as well as dive into my favorite spreads, totals, team totals, and even money lines for this Wednesday NBA schedule. My goal is to find the right value for you to be able to make money. Vegas makes you work to find the right picks, but I hope I can make things a little more clear for you every week.
Wednesday night's slate features ten games on the schedule in all.
Follow me on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS to chat about basketball and my picks.
Portland vs Houston (-8)
O/U: 236
The Rockets and Trail Blazers represent a matchup of contrasts. Houston is still trending slightly upward in the West as always while Portland is still sliding -- losers of seven of their last ten contests. Houston has won six of their last nine.
The Trail Blazers come in with just a 9-16 conference mark and allow 113.8 points per game. Houston allows nearly 114 points per game at home. It is partly why the over/under has been pushed up so much here.
However, this will not be as easy as it looks. Portland is 9-13 ATS while Houston is a respectable 10-8. As for the over/under, that may be a little tougher to stomach. Houston should be able to cover here behind a deeper bench and James Harden. Portland can keep up with the Rockets but likely will falter in the fourth quarter which is something they have done frequently in games of late. If the number goes to 234.5 or below, take the over. If it does not, then side with the under and Houston -8.
Picks: Houston -8, Under 236
Charlotte vs Denver (-11)
O/U: 209.5
The Nuggets are just a force at home. They are 16-5 at home and have won six of their last ten games overall. They only average 109 points a game though and lately, that number has been dipping ever so steadily. Then, there are the Charlotte Hornets. Charlotte has lost five straight games and eight of their last ten.
One might be inclined to look at that over and again that is enticing. However, with two slow-paced teams (they are tied for 29th in the NBA) facing each other, this game could be inconsistent offensively. The spread is not that safe either but sometimes one just has to get bolder with the picks here. If the spread stays at 11, then Denver is our pick.
The most prudent thing is to take the under on Wednesday night. It could be a sloppy, ugly game full of offensive futility. Denver thrives in these games much like Utah does when they play at home. It can be one and the same. Charlotte just cannot shoot well enough to offset their pace problem whereas Denver can.
Pick: Under 209.5
San Antonio vs Miami (-5)
O/U: 222
It is safe to say that Miami has lost two straight but are back at home where they are a league-best 17-1. One cannot underestimate that as when a team is this good at home, streaks of a bad nature often disappear.
The first half over/under was pondered. On the other hand, this game could turn hot in the second half. The overall over/under carries some intrigue here as it is only 222. That is a reasonable number. Some sites even trended closer to 223 for a bit but that has backed off some. Does it get back to that number later? That remains a question.
However, the safest bet on Wednesday here is likely the over. Consider that the San Antonio Spurs averaged 113.9 points per game and yield 115 per contest, one has the recipe of looking into the over more than anything. That is especially if the number backs down a bit later in the day. Miami at -5 is also more attractive than at the -5 1/2 it opened. If that slides to 4 1/2, then there is a number worthy of pouncing on. The feeling is to take Miami and the over based on where the numbers are at now.
Picks: Miami -5, Over 222
Orlando at Los Angeles Lakers (-9.5)
O/U: 211.5
Let's keep this one simple. The Lakers have won nine straight games and are not double-digit favorites at home against a sub .500 Orlando team. This is one that will have to sink it for a few seconds and then hit the over early and often.
It would be intriguing to try Orlando at the +9.5 given their performances of late but this is not worth the risk. Even Orlando cannot shoot for a number like that on this Wednesday night. If the spread stays at ten or lower, again Los Angeles is too easy of a pick. However, the over/under could move a bit more so keep an eye on that.
Picks: Over 211.5, Washington +10.5
