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Well, friends, here we are: the final NASCAR race of the 2020 season. It's been a long ride, and I've been so happy to pump out content about all three national series week after week after week. Even with the pandemic happening, NASCAR managed to squeeze in a full schedule, even if it necessitated some changes, like doubleheaders, mid-week races, and what might be the only points race ever at the Daytona road course.
So, here we are. Phoenix. With the top driver all year, Kevin Harvick, eliminated from title contention, one of these four drivers will leave Phoenix as champ: Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, and Denny Hamlin. The Penske drivers both are searching for their second titles, while the other two try to win their first.
Anyway, you're here for the DFS stuff. Let's talk about the DFS stuff. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you have any NASCAR questions: @juscarts.
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NASCAR DFS Research for Season Finale 500
If you are not familiar, in this article I will highlight some helpful NASCAR data from my deep dive into the Premium Research Station. You can get full access to that Premium DFS Tool, and others including our Lineup Optimizer, with our NASCAR Premium Pass.
Top Fantasy Values At Phoenix
Obviously, building a strong DFS lineup requires you to find some strong value, and one thing our Research Station can provide you is the tools needed to find those values.
One way to determine value -- projected fantasy points per $1,000 dollar salary. Basically, which drivers are projected to score the most fantasy points relative to their price. This can help you figure out how to maximize your projected fantasy points.
Looking at projected value on DraftKings and potential value plays, we see:
So, maybe not as many guys who scream "I'M A HUGE VALUE THIS WEEK" as we might be used to, but:
- Ryan Preece is notable here. Unless I'm mistaken, we still don't know the status of this 37 car next year and if Preece will be back, but a strong run today might help that. He starts 24th and now has finished top 20 in eight of the past nine races. Phoenix has given him some trouble in the past in Cup, but he was 18th here earlier this year and this seems like a track that should suit his driving style.
- Michael McDowell is another good value, as he starts 29th.
- Chris Buescher starts 31st and has a 5.49 projected FP/$. That's highest of anyone priced under $8K.
- A few drivers who don't have great projected value because they start too high: Cole Custer, Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman.
- Bubba Wallace has a low projected value, but he starts 23rd and I think this model is underrating him just a little bit.
- No driver under $5,500 John Hunter Nemechek has a projected FP/$ over four.
Phoenix Driver Ratings
NASCAR's driver rating formula puts together a lot of factors to spit out a number that rates how a driver performed in a certain race.
Here are the Phoenix ratings for the top FanDuel drivers this week:
- THAT RECENT KYLE BUSCH NUMBER.
- Keselowski's recent performance here does not bode well for his chances of winning this title when compared to the other drivers.
- Kevin Harvick should be one of the favorites to win, even if he's eliminated from championship contention.
- No one in this range is particularly bad here, even if Keselowski appears to be at a slight disadvantage.
- Deeper down the list, some guys with recent ratings here of 85 or better: Jimmie Johnson, Kurt Busch, Clint Bowyer, Aric Almirola.
- Some guys in the 70s: Cole Custer, Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman
- And then on the bad end, some guys below 60: Michael McDowell, Ty Dillon, Ryan Preece, Chris Buescher, Bubba Wallace
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Other Interesting Notes!
Here are some other things I found via the Research Station that I think y'all should know:
- Chase Elliott is projected for the most fast laps at 28, one more than Kevin Harvick.
- Kevin Harvick's average finish in recent races here: 4.4. Kyle Busch: 1.8.
- Kyle is the only driver whose average running position here recently is top five. It's 3.6.
- Alex Bowman's numbers here just aren't as impressive as similarly-priced drivers.
- Short term, Kyle Busch averages 98.2 laps led here.
- Long term, Kevin Harvick averages 86.8 laps led here.
- Long term, Denny Hamlin has been in the top 15 for just 69 percent of laps here, lowest of the championship contenders.
- Clint Bowyer and Aric Almirola are both over 80 percent in terms of top-15 laps in recent Phoenix races. I really like the Stewart-Haas cars this week.
Good luck this week! It's been a fun NASCAR season!
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