One Game MLB Playoff Previews & DFS Lineup Picks for 9/30

Wherever you are right now, take a minute to stop and take in your surroundings.  Slowly inhale and pay close attention to what your ears are telling you.  Do you hear that?  Listen closely.  Still unable to hear anything?  That’s because now that the regular season is over, the mainstream media can no longer pound the dead horse that is the retirement of Derek Jeter. At the drop of a hat the entire baseball community in the Northeast has completely hushed and the silence is deafening to the rest of the country.

It was pretty cool to see The Captain go out in style with an oppo walk-off single in his final home game, but the baseball Gods were obviously upset with the 2014 handling of Jeter’s retirement.  Or should I say the 2014 handling of showering a professional athlete worth millions of dollars with unnecessarily exuberant gifts that he doesn’t need for free while forcing the fact that he will no longer be playing soon down our throats.  Because of this unnecessary celebration and seemingly non-stop forced topic of conversation of Jeter’s retirement, the baseball Gods punished the Yankees by denying their entry to the real end of season party that is the postseason.

Perhaps the only thing more certain in the playoffs than the absence of a New York team is the near certainty of several “facts” that will be thrown at you regarding how teams win in the playoffs.  You probably already know them already.  Pitching wins in the postseason.  Kind of.  Watch out for [X team] as they have all the momentum.  Maybe.  Look for them to take advantage of home-field.  Not really.  It’s tough to win in October if you relied on the long ball in the regular season.  No.

There are so many more clichés but there’s obviously not enough words allotted to this article to go over all of them.  You’ve probably already heard them all anyway.  At least all the above still beat any football commentator that makes the wild proclamation “I bet he wishes he had that one back” after a quarterback throws a pivotal interception or “third and long and this is a situation they did not want to get into” after an offense stalls and/or gains negative yardage on first and second down.  I’m still waiting for any team to actually take a knee on first and second downs to start the game, just so the head coach can say that third and long was “just how they drew it up” during the postgame interview.

Moral of the story is when the calendar hits October- or in this season’s case, September 30^th- you might as well press the reset button when trying to properly project playoff games as it truly is a whole new season.  After reviewing the wild card games, I’ll be making picks for the wild card FanDuel version that will exclusively feature players from Kansas City, Oakland, Pittsburgh and San Francisco.

As always, remember to check your players to make sure they are in their MLB starting lineups before lineups lock, and make sure you are doing your own research too with our very own BvP Tool for optimal performance!  Good luck, playoff RotoBallers!

 

OAKLAND AT KANSAS CITY

How They Got Here

Billy Beane’s worst nightmare did not become a painful reality as the Athletics did more than enough in the first 3/5 of the season to back their way into a postseason berth.  I even texted my old roommate Pete about two weeks ago and guaranteed that Oakland will not make the playoffs.  How often do you think he reminds me of this?  Meanwhile in middle America, Brett Saberhagen threw a five-hitter and the Royals clawed their way back from a three games to one series deficit to win the World Series in 1985.  Then nothing happened in Kansas City for almost 20 years until Friday when the Royals clinched a playoff berth.

“Facts” To Ignore

Watch out for [X team] as they have all the momentum; Look for them to take advantage of home-field.  Perhaps the most important “fact” to ignore is the momentum “fact.”  This early in the postseason you have to subscribe to the law of averages and assume that every winning streak will come to an end at some point over the next couple weeks.

Perhaps the closest we’ve seen to perfection in terms of winning when factoring in the end of the regular season into the postseason was the 2007 Colorado Rockies who won a ridiculous 21 out of 22 games, including a 163^rd regular season game for the wild card and their first eleven of the postseason.  That team didn’t win a single game in the World Series.  As for the other side of the momentum “fact,” there are several examples of teams that have hiccupped at the end of the regular season only to win or advance to the World Series.  The 2000 Yankees lost 15 of 18 games to end their season before they eventually won the title.

In 2006, October saw Detroit and St. Louis face off after the Tigers went 19-31 in their last 50 while the Cardinals had a yo-yo type season and finished 3-9.  In August and September of 2010 the Rangers finished 19-19 and who could forget about how the Red Sox defeated the Yankees after going down three games to zero?

Momentum is overrated.  Equally overrated is the assertion there is any type of home field advantage, especially in the wild card games.  Since the grand year of 2012 when the new wild card system was implemented, only one home team has won the one game playoff (see below).  With the exception of some parks in favor of pitchers’ tendencies, it’s not as if players will magically play any worse or better considering where they are playing.  After all they are grown men and let’s face it, even Rocky was able to take down Drago in hostile Moscow.

How It Plays Out

This has all the makings of a quick game.  With a weighted run creation against right handers slightly higher than Kansas City’s against LHPs, Oakland figures to have the edge offensively.  James Shields has had better success against Oakland’s bats than Jon Lester has had against his counterparts but the Athletic left hander has had the better season and is overall a better pitcher.  Look for the Athletics to take the wild card over the Royals, 2-1.

 

SAN FRANCISCO AT PITTSBURGH

How They Got Here

The Giants stormed out of the gate to the tune of a .647 winning percentage in their first 68 games before they finished 44-50 in their last 94 to earn a wild card berth.  Pretty much the exact opposite happened in Pittsburgh as the Pirates have gone 61-44 since June 1^st.

“Facts” To Ignore

Pitching wins in the postseason; Look for them to take advantage of home-field.  Having quality pitching certainly helps a team’s chances in winning, however there is no winning formula for teams when it comes to the postseason.  Offense, defense, starting rotation, bullpen- all these things do matter when constructing a title contender and not one facet of the game has proven to be an automatic winner.

How It Plays Out

What will Pirates fans do for an encore? Will the chant become “Mad-Bum, Mad-Bum?” The Giants clearly have the advantage in starting pitching and that’s about it, right? Although the Pirates had the better offense this season they’ve struggled against left handers, which bodes extra well for the Giants. Meanwhile, San Francisco is tenth in weighted run creation against right handers and has a considerable advantage over Pittsburgh. If it’s a close game, Pittsburgh’s bullpen trumps San Francisco’s. The Pirates would’ve been big favorites had anyone other than Madison Bumgarner gotten the nod. My heart says Pittsburgh but my brain says the Giants advance with a 4-3 win.

 

FANDUEL DFS VALUE PICKS FOR 9/30

Starting Pitcher: Jon Lester, OAK ($10,600): Bumgarner is a solid pick as well, but Lester mathematically has a higher chance to get the four point win.

Catcher: Stephen Vogt, OAK ($2,600): I know Vogt has been as invisible in the second half as Amanda Bynes’ life coach, but the Oakland catcher has a .337 wOBA against RHP on the season while having considerable success against Shields.

First Base: Billy Butler, KC ($3,000): The first half of the Royals’ DH is a distant memory as Butler has hit himself into midseason form when it matters most. He is the Royals’ premier offensive weapon against LHPs with a .368 woBA and 137 wRC+.

Second Base: Neil Walker, PIT ($3,600): The Pittsburgh native son is on the verge of having a big postseason- if the Pirates can win the one-game playoff. Dare I say he is the Wild Card wild card?

Third Base: Pablo Sandoval, SFG ($3,000): Kung-Fu Panda may be the most hated movie in the three rivers area on Wednesday in honor of the Giants’ third basemen. Other than going 5-for-10 against Edinson Volquez over the last couple seasons, the Panda has a .359 wOBA versus righties. Watch out if you’re sitting above the right field wall at PNC.

Shortstop: Jed Lowrie, OAK ($2,600): Perhaps the best play of the day belongs to the A’s shortstop. Lowrie has only recorded one negative point game out of his last ten and owns a .341 OBP hitting left handed when facing right handers. I’m banking on him getting on base and scoring.

Outfield: Josh Harrison, PIT ($3,500): It’s hard not to play JayHay. Although his hitting streak ended on Sunday in Cincinnati, the Pirates do-it-all man is seeing the ball well, hitting the ball well and stealing bases well. If- and it’s a big if- Bumgarner struggles, it’s because JayHay dicatated the pace in the box and on the base paths like a smothering college football defense.