MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (5/23/2025)

May 23, 2025

Kipp Heisterman's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/23/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props. Alex Bregman, Heliot Ramos, Freddie Freeman, and more.

We have a solid Friday slate as always, with a full complement of games to choose from. Our focus today will be on bats in favorable matchups and optimal hitting conditions, whether that is due to the park, matchup, or weather conditions. We have five hitters in five different games tonight.

I will provide my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round robin them, which I will do tonight. There are plenty of bets tonight with value, so to make a profit, we only need two of our four hitters to go deep - or maybe just one of our long shots!

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Friday, May 23, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your wagers. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/23/2025)

Here are the hitters I'll cover for Friday, May 23:

• Alex Bregman, Boston Red Sox
• Heliot Ramos, San Francisco Giants
• Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays
• Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers

Alex Bregman OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+475 DraftKings Sportsbook)

We are starting the day with a game that was supposed to occur yesterday, but was rained out early in the day. Today, the game starts at 1:35 pm EST, so we will look to get on the board early this Friday afternoon, like we did last week when Pete Crow-Armstrong went deep for us last Friday afternoon against the Chicago White Sox.

Alex Bregman has been a superb addition for the Boston Red Sox as he has smacked 11 home runs while posting a .935 OPS to begin the season. He has hit left-handed pitching rather well, also, as noted by his .991 OPS. Although he has only hit one home run against left-handed pitching this season, he does have 16 home runs against them since 2023 and has a great matchup against Orioles left-hander Cade Povich tonight.

Povich has been awful this season. He now has a 5.23 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and a whopping eight home runs allowed across just 41 1/3 innings pitched. When we look under the hood, things do not get much better, either.

Povich has allowed an average exit velocity of 83.8 mph, which ranks in the seventh percentile of the league. He has also allowed 28.5% of baseballs to be hit north of 95 mph, which ranks him in the eighth percentile of the league. Seven of the eight home runs he has allowed have also come against right-handed hitters.

This may cause him problems when facing Bregman, as Bregman has posted a solid 38.3% hard hit rate overall this season, ranking him in the 86th percentile.

Bregman's odds at +475 make for a nice play as well. Given his power metrics thus far in 2025, I was expecting this to be much lower.

Heliot Ramos OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Heliot Ramos is another hitter who has been on another level recently. Over the previous two weeks, Ramos has posted a 1.258 OPS with a whopping four home runs. He has been great all season, actually, as he now has nine home runs while posting an .862 OPS in 2025.

The metrics also look great for Ramos, as noted by his 91.3 mph average exit velocity, which ranks him in the 82nd percentile of the league. He has had a ton of success against left-handed pitching as well. Since 2023, Ramos has smacked 13 of his 32 home runs against left-handers while posting a .972 OPS against them. In 2024, Ramos hit 10 of his 22 home runs against southpaws while posting a ridiculous 1.189 OPS.

Ramos will be facing Washington Nationals' left-hander MacKenzie Gore this evening, and while Gore has been solid thus far in 2025, he has been tagged for eight home runs. He has also allowed five total home runs in his previous four starts. His 1.3 HR/9 allowed ranks him in the 34th percentile of the league, so this is a spot we can look to attack.

Of the eight home runs Gore has allowed, four of them have come against right-handed hitters this season. He has also allowed 14 home runs across 385 batters faced to right-handed hitters since 2023.

Heliot Ramos over his last 22 games:

.397 AVG
6 HR
16 RBI
17 Runspic.twitter.com/JSzMNUycn1

— Kirk Snyder (@dynastyinfo411) May 21, 2025

Junior Caminero OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+340 DraftKings Sportsbook)

In all honesty, I was hoping for some better odds here on Junior Caminero, but Las Vegas knows he is in a great spot to go yard tonight against the Blue Jays' left-hander Eric Lauer.

Eric Lauer has been a home run machine of sorts in recent seasons, as he has allowed a total of 17 home runs across 256 batters faced since 2023. Of those 17 home runs, a whopping 16 have come against right-handed hitters. This should not be surprising, as this season alone, Lauer has allowed 24.5% of balls to be hit 95+ mph, which ranks him in the 27th percentile leaguewide.

He has also allowed a 7.5% barrels/BBE rate, ranking him in the seventh percentile of the league.

Caminero has been solid in 2025 in terms of power, as he now has eight home runs on the season. He has posted an average exit velocity of 91.4 mph, which ranks him in the eighth percentile. He has also posted a 38.8% hard hit rate, which ranks him in the 88th percentile of the league. Now, I wish we could say he was obliterating left-handed pitching this season, but he still has some warming up to do, as noted by his sub-.500 OPS.

That being said, he has smacked two home runs off left-handed pitchers this season and will be playing in optimal conditions this evening. The weather is expected to be around 90 degrees in Tampa Bay at first pitch, and we all know the park metrics at George M. Steinbrenner Field are conducive to hitters.

JUNIOR CAMINERO GO-AHEAD GRAND SLAM IN THE 9TH! pic.twitter.com/cEiNIpCoj7

— MLB (@MLB) May 14, 2025

Sports Betting Promo Offers

Freddie Freeman OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+425 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Freddie Freeman has been outstanding in 2025 as he now has nine home runs while posting a 1.087 OPS. He has been especially exceptional against right-handed pitching, as noted by his absurd 1.136 OPS with seven home runs against them.

Over the previous two weeks, Freeman has just one home run, but he is still posting a .978 OPS, so he is due to mash another one soon. Why not tonight against Mets' right-hander Griffin Canning?

While Canning's surface numbers look decent thus far in 2025, a deeper look into the metrics tells a different story. He is allowing some hard contact, as noted by his 28.5% rate of balls hit 95+ mph, ranking him in the eighth percentile of the league. This is starting to show up in the box score as well, as he has allowed four home runs in his previous three starts.

Canning has also struggled a bit against left-handed hitters, as evidenced by the fact that he has allowed a .261 BA with three home runs to them this season. A couple of other items worth noting are that the winds will be blowing out at Citi Field tonight, so a nice weather bump to hitters here. Freeman is also 1-for-5 facing Canning, with one home run.

These are decent odds for a guy like Freeman at +425, especially given his recent success.

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