X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (5/16/2025)

Kerry Carpenter - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Kipp Heisterman's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/16/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props. Kerry Carpenter, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Freddie Freeman, and more.

We have a large slate of MLB action today, with a lot to choose from when searching for the long ball. Our focus today will be on bats in favorable matchups and optimal hitting conditions, whether that be due to the park, matchup, or weather conditions. We have some fun home run bets today, with a number of guys finding themselves in great hitting spots.

I will provide my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round robin them, which I will do tonight. There are plenty of bets tonight with value, so to make a profit, we only need two of our four hitters to go deep. I will also note at the end of the write-up on players I feel could be taken as a one-off bet to hit a home run, as these players will have a lot working in their favor.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Friday, May 162025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your wagers. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is difficult.

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 50% off using code SUMMER. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/16/2025)

Here are the hitters I'll cover for Friday, May 16:

Kerry Carpenter OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+245 FanDuel and DraftKings)

I was hoping we would have a little higher odds here on Kerry Carpenter, but Vegas knows what is up in this matchup against Bowden Francis and the Toronto Blue Jays. Francis has struggled mightily this season. In 2025, he has allowed a total of 12(!) home runs. Of those 12 home runs, nine have come against left-handed hitters.

The metrics for Bowden tend to agree with the home runs allowed. Overall, he is allowing an average exit velocity of over 85 mph, which ranks him in the seventh percentile of the league. He has also allowed 35% of balls to be hit 95 mph or higher, which is also not good.

It is good, however, for Kerry Carpenter. Carpenter loves facing right-handed pitching. This is a well-known fact. In 2025, he posted a .918 OPS vs. righties. He has also hit seven of his nine home runs this season against right-handed pitching. The recent stats back up Carpenter as well. Over the previous week, Carpenter has posted a 1.117 OPS.

I think this is a play you could make as a one-off, given the struggles of Bowden Francis and Carpenter's innate ability to rake against right-handed pitching.

Mark Vientos OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+390 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Look, the most obvious home run play in this game is going to be Pete Alonso. This should come as no surprise, as he has nine home runs on the season, but in this article, I want to try and give a few more under-the-radar type guys to go along with a chalk play or two, and Vientos fits that bill.

Let's start with the New York Mets' opponent, the New York Yankees' left-handed starter, Carlos Rodon. Now, some may call me crazy for going after Rodon here, but he has allowed a whopping eight home runs this season and a total of 54 home runs since 2023. Quite frankly, he is a bit prone to the long ball. Of those 54 home runs allowed since 2023, 45 of them have come against right-handed bats.

In 2025, Rodon's metrics are not exactly going to back up a call for a home run in terms of things like average exit velocity allowed or balls hit 95 mph or higher, but he has allowed a subpar 1.3 HR/9, so we can still look to attack based on this.

Vientos has hit a total of five home runs in 2025, and while only one of them has come against left-handed pitching, he has only seen 28 plate appearances against Southpaws this season. In 2024, Vientos posted an .884 OPS against lefties while hitting seven of 27 home runs against lefties. This came across just 139 plate appearances, so the power against lefties is quite real here.

 

Sports Betting Promo Offers

Featured Promo: Get any Betting Premium Pass for 50% off using code SUMMER. Win more with exclusive betting picks from proven winners across 9 sports! Find optimal bets with our Betting Picks Tool and Bet Weighting Tool and follow along in our VIP chat rooms! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Pete Crow-Armstrong OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+245 FanDuel)

Full disclosure: I am not absolutely in love with this Pete Crow-Armstrong play, but I wanted to give the readers something to take a look at in the early game today at Wrigley Field. The winds are supposed to be howling, as the current prediction shows 20+ mph winds blowing out. When the winds are blowing out like this at Wrigley, you have to take a look at a home run prop or two.

Crow-Armstrong has been on a torrid pace to begin the season as he has now hit 11 home runs. Of those 11 home runs, eight have come against right-handed pitching. This should not be a big surprise, given his .886 OPS against righties this season. He has also posted an average exit velocity of 90.3 mph, which ranks him in the 68th percentile.

Even more impressive is his 9.8% barrels/PA mark, ranking him in the 95th percentile.

Crow-Armstrong has also been hot recently, as five of his home runs have come in the previous two weeks while also posting a .928 OPS across that span.

He will be up against Shane Smith of the Chicago White Sox. Smith has been pretty solid, which is where some trepidation comes in here. He has allowed just one home run this season, but it did come against a left-handed hitter. He also does not have the greatest spin rate, as noted by his 2,127 RPM mark, so hitters may be able to see him a bit better in this matchup.

It should be a fun game in Wrigley this afternoon, so might as well take a flyer on a hot bat here.

Freddie Freeman OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+380 DraftKings Sportbook)

I am pretty surprised we continue to get Freddie Freeman at such decent odds. +380 is nothing to shake a stick at, especially when we are looking at a guy who has mashed nine home runs already. For comparison, Shohei Ohtani has hit 15 home runs (I know, several more, but still...) and is currently posted at an absurd +160. We can hopefully get the job done with Freeman here at much better odds.

As aforementioned, Freeman has hit nine home runs this season, seven of which have come against right-handed pitching. He has also posted a ridiculous 1.185 OPS against righties this season and has a .962 OPS against them since 2023.

The metrics also look solid for Freeman, who is posting an average exit velocity of 92.7 mph, a barrels/PA mark of 9.6%, and a hard hit rate of 34.7%. These marks rank him in the upper echelon of the league, to say the least.

Freeman's opponent will be Los Angeles Angels right-hander Jack Kochanowicz, who has not been performing too well in 2025. On the season, he has allowed a total of seven home runs, six of which have come against left-handed hitters.

He has also allowed 30.7% of balls to be hit 95 mph or more, which ranks him in the seventh percentile of the league. He has also allowed at least one home run in six of his eight starts, including allowing a dinger in four of his previous five starts.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

A.J. Puk

Pauses Throwing Program
Matt Chapman

Can Begin Rehabbing in a Week
Logan Gilbert

Next Start Could Come in the Big Leagues
Cam Akers

Joining Saints
Yordan Alvarez

Still Not Hitting
Michael Mayer

to Get More Involved
Aaron Rodgers

DK Metcalf Building Chemistry with Aaron Rodgers
Colston Loveland

Likely to be Primary Tight End
Jacob Wilson

Returns on Friday
Justin Martinez

Out 12-13 Months With UCL Sprain
Will Johnson

Returns to Practice
Harold Fannin Jr.

Could Have Big Role in Rookie Season
Matt Chapman

Could Miss the Rest of June
Quentin Johnston

Still Running With Starters
Rashawn Slater

Takes Part in Minicamp
Jack Bech

Mostly Working With Second-Team Offense
Dont'e Thornton Jr.

Makes Strides This Offseason
Joaquin Buckley

Set For Main Event
Ashton Jeanty

to be Part of Committee Backfield?
Kamaru Usman

An Underdog At UFC Atlanta
Christian McCaffrey

Takes Part in Mandatory Minicamp
Jordan Watkins

has Been Standing Out
Miranda Maverick

Set For Co-Main Event
Rose Namajunas

Looks To Bounce Back
Jacob Cowing

on the Rise
Andre Petroski

Looks To Extend His Win Streak To Four
Demarcus Robinson

a Frequent Target This Spring
Dee Winters

has Been Impressive This Spring
Edmen Shahbazyan

A Favorite At UFC Atlanta
Raoni Barcelos

Set To Take On Former Champion
Cody Garbrandt

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Mansur Abdul-Malik

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Cody Brundage

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Alonzo Menifield

Opens Up UFC Atlanta Main Card
Oumar Sy

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Aaron Civale

Traded to the White Sox
Connor Hellebuyck

Wins Vezina And Hart Trophies
Aleksander Barkov

Records Two Power-Play Assists Thursday
Sam Reinhart

Collects Three Points in Thursday's Loss
Matthew Tkachuk

Notches Three Points in Losing Effort
Calvin Pickard

Joins Exclusive List with Thursday's Win
Mattias Ekholm

Logs Two Assists in Comeback Victory
Leon Draisaitl

Delivers Victory in Overtime Thursday
Myles Turner

Playing Through Illness
Reed Sheppard

Will Play in the NBA Summer League
Kevin Durant

Deal Could Come Sooner Rather Than Later
Jacob Misiorowski

Pulled With Cramps
Framber Valdez

Punches Out 12 in Win
Isaac Paredes

Homers, Exits Early With Hamstring Injury
D.J. Humphries

Rams Sign D.J. Humphries on Thursday
Troy Franklin

has Had a Good Offseason
Jacob Misiorowski

Leaves Game with Ankle Injury
Mike Williams

Expected to be Ready for Training Camp
Trey Benson

Adds Weight, Explosiveness
Dorian Finney-Smith

Undergoes Ankle Surgery
Christian Moore

Angels Calling Up Christian Moore
Noah Brown

Undergoing MRI
Anze Kopitar

Wins Third Lady Byng Trophy
Sergei Bobrovsky

Heading Out for Win No. 15
John Klingberg

Won't Play in Game 4 Against Panthers
Viktor Arvidsson

Sits Out Game 4 Against Panthers
Christian Yelich

Back in Brewers Lineup
Stuart Skinner

Remains in Oilers Crease Thursday
Chris Kreider

Ducks Acquire Chris Kreider From Rangers
Aaron Judge

Out for First Time All Season
Kodai Senga

Heading to Injured List With Hamstring Strain
Rafael Devers

has Been Playing Through Groin Strain
Jalen Williams

Leads Thunder in Scoring Wednesday
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Settles for 24 Points in Game 3 Loss
Pascal Siakam

Does Everything for Pacers Wednesday Night
Tyrese Haliburton

Gets Close to Triple-Double in Game 3 Win
Bennedict Mathurin

Leads All Scorers with 27 Points Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski

Has Second Offseason Surgery
Cale Makar

Wins His Second Norris Trophy
Lane Hutson

Voted NHL's Best Rookie
CGY

Adam Klapka Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

Considered a Game-Time Call Thursday
Carlos Santana

Hits Grand Slam on Wednesday
Alec Bohm

Homers, Drives in Four on Wednesday
Clarke Schmidt

Strikes Out Seven in Win on Wednesday
Hunter Goodman

Homers, Doubles Twice on Wednesday
Jaylen Brown

Undergoes Successful Knee Procedure
Kevin Porter Jr.

Likely to Decline Player Option
Matt McCarty

Comes Off Season-Best Showing at RBC Canadian Open
Justin Thomas

Desperate to Continue Good 2025 Season
Kevin Durant

Knicks Not Looking to Trade for Kevin Durant
Jon Rahm

Seeks Revenge at U.S. Open
Tom Kim

Aiming for Improvement in U.S. Open
PGA

Sungjae Im Expects Solid Performance at Oakmont
Brian Harman

Aims to Rebound From the Memorial
Tony Finau

has Been Up and Down at U.S. Open
Patrick Cantlay

Hoping This is the Year at Oakmont
Akshay Bhatia

Improving in Time for U.S. Open
Xander Schauffele

Primed for Another Major Championship Run
Cameron Young

May Struggle at U.S. Open
Collin Morikawa

Eyeing Third Major Championship Title
Matt Fitzpatrick

Seeks to Avenge Oakmont Collapse
Jordan Spieth

Can Contend at Oakmont
Shane Lowry

a Strong Value Play at U.S. Open
Brooks Koepka

Seeks Another Major Win at Oakmont
Viktor Hovland

Still Can Improve at U.S. Open
Michael Kim

a Boom-or-Bust Value Play at U.S. Open
Russell Henley

Looking to Play the Weekend at Oakmont
Tyrrell Hatton

a Safe Option at U.S. Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Eyeing Third U.S. Open Title
Darius Garland

Kings Targeting Darius Garland
Kevin Durant

Expected to Be Moved Soon
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Reportedly Has "No Trade Market"
Jarace Walker

Remains Out Wednesday
Tyrese Haliburton

"Fine" For Wednesday's Action
Denny Hamlin

Charges Late to Win at Michigan
Carson Hocevar

Michigan Run is Derailed by A Late-Race Flat Tire
Kyle Larson

Up-and-Down Day Ends With Top-Five Finish at Michigan
Ross Chastain

Quietly Finishes Sixth at Michigan
Olivier-Maxence Prosper

Says Rehab Going "Great"
Vasilije Micić

Vasilije Micic Expected to Return to Europe
Myles Turner

Two Teams Seen as Potential Suitors for Myles Turner
Corey Perry

Nets Power-Play Goal in Monday's Loss
Stuart Skinner

Gets Pulled in Heavy Game 3 Defeat
Evan Rodrigues

Extends Scoring Streak with Multi-Point Effort
Sam Reinhart

Collects Two Points in Monday's Win
Chris Buescher

Takes Second Place After William Byron Runs Out of Fuel
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Has a Great Points Day to Build Buffer Over the Playoff Cut Line
Ryan Blaney

Flat Tire Results in Poor Finish for Ryan Blaney
Alex Bowman

Playoffs in Doubt After Stage 2 Crash at Michigan
Sean O'Malley

Submitted For The First Time In His Career
Merab Dvalishvili

Defends Bantamweight Belt At UFC 316
Julianna Peña

Julianna Pena No Longer A Champion
Kayla Harrison

Is The New Champion
Joe Pyfer

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum

Drops Decision
Patchy Mix

Drops Decision In His UFC Debut
Mario Bautista

Extends His Win Streak
Vicente Luque

Submitted At UFC 316
Denny Hamlin

is A Top Contender to Win At Michigan
Kyle Larson

Will Compete For The Win At Michigan
Chase Elliott

is One of the Most Favored DFS Options of the Week for Michigan
William Byron

May be A Top Threat to Win at Michigan
Kyle Busch

is Difficult to Recommend for DFS Lineups at Michigan
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Qualifies Ninth For the FireKeepers Casino 400
Alex Bowman

What Should Fantasy Managers Do With Alex Bowman at Michigan?
Austin Cindric

Should Austin Cindric be Considered For Michigan DFS Lineups?
Shane Van Gisbergen

Should Shane Van Gisbergen Be Rostered For Michigan DFS Lineups?
John Hunter Nemechek

Is A Solid Value Option For Michigan DFS Lineups
Zane Smith

Is Zane Smith Worth Rostering Outside of Tournament Lineups at Michigan?
Todd Gilliland

Is A Decent Value Option for Michigan DFS Lineups
Ryan Blaney

One of the Leading DFS Contenders, but Might Be Slightly Overpriced