MLB DFS Playoff Slate In Depth Analysis for 10/11/21 (Premium Content)

MLB DFS Premium Cheatsheet for 10/11

 

This will surely be the final four-game slate of the playoffs, which means it's our last chance to get any semblance of an edge on the field. There is just no real edge in a two-game slate scenario. It is probably still best to be playing this slate for very low stakes, but at least we have a player pool of some depth.

Let's get into it, first I'll throw overall numbers at you and then we'll go game-by-game giving some more specific, hopefully interesting, notes.

 

Pitcher Report

It's a much more interesting group of pitchers as we are two or three games into all these series. Scherzer is the only guy on the board without what I would call serious question marks, and we'll talk more about that later.

For now, here's each pitcher's average DraftKings score from the regular season:

 

And here are the average hitter DraftKings scores when each pitcher starts the game.

 

Let's get into the games.

 

Brewers (Freddy Peralta) vs. Atlanta Braves (Ian Anderson)

Pitchers

Peralta had an awesome 2021 season with an elite 33.6% strikeout rate over 144.1 innings. Very impressive stuff. He missed some time in late August and then was eased back a bit, throwing just 23 innings in September. He finished the year with three outings going five or more innings, so he should be considered a full-go here. That said, I imagine that the Brewers would be perfectly happy to take four or five innings from Peralta and then go to their bullpen in this crucial game. That fact wouldn't discourage us a ton from playing Peralta, because Scherzer is probably the only guy that isn't a serious risk of being pulled at the first sign of danger.

If you're shooting for five innings from your SP tonight, Peralta is a good guy to go to considering how many strikeouts we know he can generate in that time.

As for Ian Anderson, it wasn't the best year for him. He averaged a good but not great 15 DraftKings points per start, but he did bump that up to 21.4 over his final four starts, striking out 36 batters over 23.2 innings. That's very encouraging. His season strikeout rate of 23% might be a point or two lower than what we would expect moving forward, but this isn't a guy you should expect more than a strikeout per inning from. The appeal is the 49% ground-ball rate, which should help him quite a bit tonight.

The Brewers' offense is probably the worst unit still in the playoffs. They check in with the lowest collective slugging percentage at .393. That's good news for Anderson, but the strikeout upside is not there to inspire a ton of confidence.

 

Hitters

Splits vs. Freddy Peralta

Split	SLG	PA/HR	K%
vs. LHB	.250	39	30%
vs. RHB	.281	44.5	38%

 

Splits vs. Ian Anderson

Split	SLG	PA/HR	K%
vs. LHB	.331	25.4	23%
vs. RHB	.330	46.5	23%

 

It's awful tough to hit the long ball off of these two, but lefties against Anderson have the best chance at it by the splits. The problem there is that the Brewers' only lefty that hit homers at a decent rate this year was Eduardo Escobar. Their most successful DFS hitters this year were Willy Adames and Avisail Garcia, two righties who aren't in a good spot here against Anderson. You could make a bet on Christian Yelich, Kolten Wong, or Rowdy Tellez here, but Escobar is the only one that really stands out.

As for the Braves, nobody really lines up super well against Peralta. The lefties make a lot more contact but still strike out a ton with that 30% rate. We really should never be fading guys like Ozzie Albies and Freddie Freeman given how good they are at the plate, and Eddie Rosario seems to be a decent punt option. Don't get me wrong, odds are that half of this game or more is pitched by the bullpen, so we shouldn't be full-fading the upside bats of Jorge Soler, Austin Riley, and Adam Duvall just because the starter is nasty.

 

Astros (Jose Urquidy) vs. White Sox (Carlos Rodon)

Pitchers

Rodon is the guy to look at here. He was in the top three all year in DraftKings scoring per start, but couldn't quite get through a full year healthy. He missed some time with arm fatigue and made just four starts in September. He did throw five innings on September 29th to finish out his regular season, and now he's had 12 full days off. That should be enough to give us a shot at getting a full-length start from him. The matchup is, of course, brutal as the Astros have just crushed everybody the White Sox have thrown at them this year. However, when Rodon was healthy this year there was no offense he could not dominate. He made two starts against Houston this year and struck out 18 batters in 14 innings (going seven innings each time) while giving up just one run.

All that is to say that Rodon has huge upside but definitely has some question marks about how healthy his arm is. I think I would lean towards betting on him being healthy enough to put up a nice score here, at least a nice score relative to what the rest of the field is likely to do.

As for Urquidy, I'm not very interested. His 21% strikeout rate is the worst mark on the board and he's averaged just 10.8 DraftKings points over his last seven starts. He's quite cheap, and perfectly capable of putting up some decent scores, but I really want to get some strikeout potential in my SP slots tonight given that we can't count on guys getting deep into the games.

Splits vs. Rodon

Split	SLG	PA/HR	K%
vs. LHB	.297	111	32%
vs. RHB	.270	35	36%

If you're playing some Astros bats, you're betting on Rodon not being in this game for long. That's a pretty decent bet to make, and the White Sox bullpen is certainly not the strongest unit out there especially after how much its been used in the first three games of this series. Playing a lefty against Rodon is a pretty fruitless endeavor, so since the expensive Yordan Alvarez is going to have to face him at least once, and probably two or three times, I wouldn't be too into that play. Kyle Tucker is in the same boat, but much cheaper (and also a spot or two lower in the lineup which makes it slightly more likely he'll see his second or third AB against a bullpen arm). I'm fine with Astros on the four-game slate, but they aren't priority.

 

Splits vs. Urquidy

Split	SLG	PA/HR	K%
vs. LHB	.317	36	22%
vs. RHB	.432	20.3	21%

Here are some numbers we can exploit. The White Sox lineup is chalk full of right-handed hitters, who have had much success against Urquidy this year over 243 plate appearances. That means Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, Jose BAreu, Yasmani Grandal, Eloy Jimenez, and Yoan Moncada are great plays.

 

Rays (Collin McHugh) vs. Red Sox (Eduardo Rodriguez)

Pitchers

You obviously aren't going to play McHugh here as the best-case scenario for him is three innings. As for E-Rod, he's pretty considerable at $7,200 and $8,400. His 27% K% is strong, and he's made three really strong starts against the Rays this year, striking out at least six in three of his four outings there. That's not to say this is a great spot for Rodriguez, but he'd be on my short list here.

 

Splits vs. McHugh

Split	SLG	PA/HR	K%
vs. LHB	.198	INF	37%
vs. RHB	.314	53	26%

McHugh is very tough to hit. The good news for Red Sox hitters would be that they'll likely only face him once. The most important note is that the Rays typically dominate in these kinds of bullpen games. In seven games that McHugh opened this year, opposing offenses scored just 19 runs and hit four homers. You do have to play a full lineup of hitters tonight, and you can't play ALL White Sox, so some upside Red Sox are considerable but I don't think going heavy here is optimal.

I'd be fine with a cheap guy like Hunter Renfroe or Bobby Dalbec that can score you the points you need on one swing, but that's about it for me.

 

Splits vs. Rodriguez

Split	SLG	PA/HR	K%
vs. LHB	.414	38	26%
vs. RHB	.400	28	34%

This is another pretty decent spot, as righties have had some decent DFS success against E-Rod. The Rays have a lineup full of righties tonight. Randy Arozarena, Wander Franco, and Nelson Cruz really stand out here. Manuel Margot and Mike Zunino have also had their successes against lefties. Jordan Luplow also does well against lefties, but will likely get removed from the game as soon as he's about to be up against a right-handed pitcher.

 

 

Giants (Alex Wood) vs. Dodgers (Max Scherzer)

Pitchers

Max Scherzer struggled in the Wild Card game, but I wouldn't downgrade him at all for that. He's been completely dominant since joining the Dodgers, and he's the clear top option here. Alex Wood had a fine year for the Giants, but leaves a lot to be desired with the short leash and the lower strikeout rate.

 

Splits vs. Wood

Split	SLG	PA/HR	K%
vs. LHB	.333	45	21%
vs. RHB	.339	41	27%

Not much difference between the sides of the plate there. Trea Turner has been absolute murder on left-handed pitching this year, he is probably my top bat on the board. I'm also more than fine with Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, Justin Turner, and Will Smith here. The Dodgers might actually slightly edge out the White Sox in terms of offensive priorities.

 

Splits vs. Scherzer

Split	SLG	PA/HR	K%
vs. LHB	.316	31.1	37%
vs. RHB	.299	26.3	31%

Scherzer does give up homers at about a league-average rate, which gives some of the Giants bats some viability. The Giants have a lineup full of slightly above average home run rates, so there's really a bunch of different ways to go. Brandon Crawford, Buster Posey, LaMonte Wade, and Kris Bryant are non-terrible plays here if they're near the top of the lineup, but of course I would much rather go Dodgers, White Sox, or Rays rather than picking on Scherzer.

 

 

Pitcher Ranks

1. Max Scherzer
2. Carlos Rodon
3. Freddy Peralta
4. Eduardo Rodriguez
5. Ian Anderson
6. Jose Urquidy
7. Alex Wood
8. Collin McHugh

 

Offense Ranks

1. Dodgers
2. White Sox
3. Rays
4. Astros
5. Giants
6. Red Sox
7. Braves
8. Brewers

 

Top Expensive Bats: Trea Turner, Mookie Betts, Luis Robert, Corey SEager, Freddie Freeman, Tim Anderson, RAndy Arozarena, Justin Turner, Wander Franco

Top Value Bats: Hunter Renfroe, Christian Yelich, Eduardo Escobar, Brandon Crawford, Kyle Tucker, Nelson Cruz, Rowdy Tellez

 

Please note that these are sample lineups designed only to show how you might use the above lineup picks in your own lineup. You should always check the weather and lineups before they lock to ensure players you are choosing are playing tonight.