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With an 11 game slate on Thursday, August 20th, I will go game by game to exploit the most favorable matchups given the park, and weaknesses on each team. The key to winning in DFS tournaments is finding players with cheap prices and high ceilings. That is what my article will consist of. I will cover the obvious plays while highlighting lower priced options to help free up space for must start players that may have higher prices.
I tend to give plenty of infielder options to allow for mixing and matching for those biased people out there that refuse to play Red Sox or Yankees players. I know how it is so the options are plentiful as always. Good luck to all of you and do not forget to follow me on Twitter for advice or any questions.
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Game by Game Analysis for DraftKings Lineups
Indians @ Yankees
Josh Tomlin has only 6.1 IP under his belt and in that span, two consecutive home runs against LHB gives an small indication of how he fare against the powerful lefties on the Yankees. This includes Greg Bird, the new sensation filling in for the injured Mark Teixeira. Bird notched two, two run homers against the Twins on Wednesday which lead to a Miguel Cabrera comparison from Yanks manager Joe Girardi. This is a steal if he can continue to carry his momentum into Thursday. Yankees pitcher Ivan Nova is notorious for dominating RHB with a 9.0 K/9 and excellent 24.8 K%, but, when facing LHB he suffers a 4.13 ERA and 4.8 K% which gives Jason Kipnis and his incredible 176 wRC+ and .422 wOBA, the green light as a top option for Thursday. A cheap option for Cleveland would be Lonnie Chisenhall. Chisenhall has been on a tear over the past week with a .455 BA, one homer, and six RBI.
Twins @ Orioles
Camden Yards is a hitters park and Tyler Duffey is an inexperienced pitcher with only eight IP this season. It is hard to determine his weaknesses but both Gerardo Parro (.437 wOBA / 183 wRC+ / .660 SLG% vs R as L) and Chris Davis (.369 wOBA / 136 wRC+ / .532 SLG% vs R as L) destroy RHP this season. Parro has racked up three homers and five RBI, while Davis has four home runs and seven RBI, both in the past seven days. Orioles pitcher Miguel Gonzalez is average against both right and left handed batters this season. The more expensive option in Miguel Sano (.454 wOBA / 196 wRC+ / .656 SLG%) has higher upside due to impressive recent production with four home runs and 10 RBI. Eddie Rosario (.339 wOBA / 116 wRC+ / .486 SLG%) is an average, cheaper option and the only other real threatening option on the Twins. This should be the perfect opportunity to take Miguel Gonzalez as a sleeper option for pitcher.
PNC Park is a pitcher's paradise but both Jake Peavy and Charlie Morton are average given their production this season. With Joe Panik out Kelby Tomlinson (.321 wOBA / 111 wRC+ / .429 SLG%) is the go to as a super cheap option with plenty of upside against a below average Charlie Morton. Morton gives up a 6.18 ERA to LHB and Nori Aoki will be back Thursday to help the wavering Giants offense with his 117 wRC+ and .330 wOBA when facing RHP. The Pirates face Jake Peavy who is below average when facing RHB with a 6.16 K/9 and 16.2 K% which can give Jung ho-Kang (.355 wOBA / 130 wRC+ / .451 SLG% vs R as R) a prime opportunity to have a successful outing at home.
Comerica Park is a hitters which is going to cause a problem for both pitchers today. Alfredo Simon struggles against LHB this season with a 5.33 ERA and 13.1 K%. This is an ideal matchup for Bobby Wilson who has proved himself as a threat regardless of his limited plate appearances. Wilson has an awesome 138 wRC+ and .500 SLG% against RHP and a basement level price. Shin Soo-Choo (.375 wOBA / 136 wRC+ / .492 SLG%) is a more expensive option but also has plenty of upside. On the other side, Tigers face LHP Martin Perez who gives up a 5.79 ERA and 8.7 K% which should allow James McCann (.436 wOBA / 182 wRC+ / .612 SLG%) to have an excellent outing. He has struggled lately but this is a pristine matchup for McCann to bounce back.
Chase Field is very favorable to LHB and there are not many threatening LHB in this game other than Joey Votto (.423 wOBA / 171 wRC+ / .529 SLG%). He faces Patrick Corbin and his fairly consistent pitching should be one of the top options for Thursday. Corbin is well above average in all categories against RHB with a 9.36 K/9 and 25.2 K%. Against LHB, his 3.24 ERA and 22.2 K% is enough to make him a solid pitching option for a price that is not too steep. Votto is the only real threat to Corbin in this matchup. John Lamb has limited experience which makes it difficult to predict how the Diamondbacks offense will fare against him. The Diamondbacks have an unfavorable matchup Thursday and should be chosen with caution due to the park being highly unfavorable to their dominant RHB focused offense.
Royals @ Red Sox
This is anothers hitters park that features an average Wade Miley and slightly below average Danny Duffy. Wade Miley is decent against RHB with a 4.71 ERA / 18.1 K% and against LHB he suffers a 5.71 K/9 and 4.15 ERA. Lorenzo Cain (.438 wOBA / 185 wRC+ / .606 SLG% vs LHP) should be able to produce off of Miley. On the other side, Danny Duffy has a poor 4.46 ERA and 13.2 K% against RHB in which Rusney Castillo (.435 wOBA / 179 wRC+ / .596 SLG% vs LHP) should capitalize on. Travis Shaw is another, very cheap option with a ton of upside given his incredible numbers in 21 plate appearances. A .618 wOBA for Shaw is unreal and I like his odds against Duffy.
Jerome Williams is a very hittable pitcher and struggles with a 6.17 ERA against RHB and 9.0 K% with a 3.79 K/9 and 4.46 ERA when facing LHB. Derek Dietrich is a cheap option that destroys RHP with his .395 wOBA / 153 wRC+ / .548 SLG%, he should dominant Williams as well. Marlins’ pitcher Brad Hand holds his own against LHB with a 23.6 K% and 3.80 ERA but struggles against RHB with a 5.31 ERA and 11.4 K%. Darin Ruf is a very cheap option with plenty of upside and his 192 wRC+ / .450 wOBA should be enough to assure him an obvious start.
Jake Arrieta has been amazing this season and this should be no different against the Braves. An 1.93 ERA and 28.3 K% against LHB along with a 2.78 ERA, 23.6 K% against RHB should cement his place as one of the top pitchers for Thursday. For the Cubs offense, Chris Coghlan is cheaper option that should allow you to snag Arrieta without risking a solid offensive option. Coghlan has three homers and six RBI over the past week so I am going to advise playing his hot streak. He faces Mike Foltynewicz who struggles against LHB with a 5.25 ERA and 16.5 K%.
With Chris Archer as one of the most dominant pitchers for Thursday, his unreal 28.8 K% and 2.54 ERA against RHB is still less that his even more impressive 11.30 K/9 and 31.7 K% against LHB. Archer’s excellence covers up any Astros offensive matchups, leaving Collin McHugh, who has been above average this season as the only promising Astros option. That being said, Curt Casali (.392 wOBA / 157 wRC+ / .646 SLG%) should be able to handle McHugh for a very low price.
Max Scherzer is always a top option and Thursday is no different. When he has a 35.0 K% and 2.48 ERA against RHB, it is hard to dispute. Along with that, a 2.98 ERA and 25.2 K% against LHB solidifies him as a top tier pitcher for Thursday regardless of the park. Yohan Flande on the other hand should have a problem keeping a tab on Ryan Zimmerman. Zimmerman is a cheaper option and a .365 wOBA / 134 wRC+ / .557 SLG% should be enough to confidently choose Zimmerman for any lineup.
With a park that favors RHB, Jose Quintana should struggle against the powerhouse Mike Trout. Trout is also a very cheap price and his .408 wOBA / .581 SLG% which should scare Quintana, or any pitcher for that matter. For Nationals’ Nick Tropeano, his above average 19.1 K% against RHB and 2.84 ERA against LHB should be no problem for Adam Eaton. Eaton has a 128 wRC+ that should be too much for Tropeano regardless of the park that is unfavorable to Eaton. Other than Eaton, Tropeano has high potential to be a top sleeper option for pitchers.
DFS Starting Pitchers to Target for DraftKings
Miguel Gonzalez (BAL) - $6,400
Patrick Corbin (ARI) - $9,300
Jake Arrieta (CHC) - $11,900
Chris Archer (TB) - $12,400
Max Scherzer (WAS) - $11,400
Nick Tropeano (LAA) - $6,000
DFS Infielders to Target for DraftKings
Jason Kipnis (2B, CLE) - $4,700
Greg Bird (1B, NYY) - $2,000
Chris Davis (1B, BAL) - $5,600
Miguel Sano (3B, MIN) - $4,900
Kelby Tomlinson (2B/SS, SF) - $2,100
Jung ho-Kang (3B/SS, PIT) - $3,500
Bobby Wilson (C, TEX) - $2,000
James McCann (C, DET) - $2,800
Joey Votto (1B, CIN) - $5,300
Travis Shaw (1B/3B, BOS) - $3,400
Derek Dietrich (3B, MIA) - $3,100
Curt Casali (C, TB) - $3,200
Ryan Zimmerman (1B/3B, WAS) - $4,500
DFS Outfielders to Target for DraftKings
Eddie Rosario (MIN) - $3,800
Gerardo Parra (BAL) - $4,500
Nori Aoki (SF) - $3,600
Lorenzo Cain (KC) - $5,400
Rusney Castillo (BOS) - $3,500
Darin Ruf (1B/OF, PHI) - $2,200
Chris Coghlan (2B/OF, CHC) - $3,400
Adam Eaton (CWS) - $3,600
Mike Trout (LAA) - $4,700
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