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Thunder Dan Palyo recommends betting picks for the MLB slate on 7/11/2021. He breaks down each team's situation and suggests the top picks on money lines, totals, run lines, and more!
It's the final day of the first half of the MLB season! We have some aces on the bump and some pretty good matchups today in this slate of games, making for a fairly difficult betting card. I'll do my best to find us a few winners, though, don't worry!
If you follow me for DFS coverage, don't worry - I bet on baseball just about every day, too! Just to let you know, I mainly bet on FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks. I know not everyone is able to bet on those sites, so if you are betting elsewhere just make sure to shop around and find the best odds.
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Thunder Dan's 2021 MLB Betting Picks
Last Week: 0-4
Season to Date: 9-10
I got way too overconfident last week on what I thought was a pretty clear-cut card and variance reared it's ugly head. Going 0-4 dropped my season-long record under .500, which is a bummer, but I am determined to get back on the right side of things today as we head into the second half of the season.
Philadelphia @ Boston
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: BOS -118
PHI: Aaron Nola | BOS: Nick Pivetta
This series has seen some offensive explosions by both teams with the Red Sox scoring 11 runs in their win on Friday night and then the Phillies scoring 11 last night as they took the second game. Today, however, both teams will roll out some quality arms from the top of their rotation as Nola takes on Pivetta - a former Phillie.
Nola hasn't been very ace-like this season as Zack Wheeler has actually been the best Philly pitcher by quite some margin. But he's still having a solid campaign and has shown the ability to dominate right-handers with his big curveball when he's on. He's been striking guys out at an elite rate lately (31 strikeouts in his last three starts) and I like this matchup for him as he will only see a few lefties in this lineup in Devers and Verdugo.
Pivetta is coming off his best start of the season - seven shutout innings against Oakland in which he struck out ten. I don't believe in "revenge narratives" but I do think he will be motivated to match Nola today and pitch well against his former team. Pivetta won't face many lefties, either, with Bryce Harper and perhaps Odubel Herrera and/or Brad Miller being the only southpaws in the lineup.
Both pitchers give up some loud contact, but I like their chances of pitching effectively today and hopefully, we get some weaker "Sunday lineups" from their offenses, too, as their managers may choose to give some starters some extra rest heading into the break.
This total has already dropped from 10 to 9.5 as the sharp money is coming in on the under. While I don't mind that under at 9.5 I was hoping to get it at 10. Instead of going with the full game total, let's instead attack the first five-inning total which sits at 5.5. We just need our starters to avoid the big innings early and we remove the bullpens from the equation by doing this.
Pick: First Five Innings UNDER 5.5 runs (-137 DraftKings Sportsbook)
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#MLBDFS was wild last night but K-props continue to be HOT.
Martin Perez o/4.5 ✅
Tyler Anderson o/5.5 ✅
Mike Minor o/6.5 ✅
Trevor Bauer o/8.5 ✅@RotoBaller @RotoBallerMLB peeps in our premium slack get access to customized strikeout projections daily! pic.twitter.com/ROWW11LTah— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) May 22, 2021
Milwaukee vs. Cincinnati
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: MIL -155
MIL: Brandon Woodruff| CIN: Luis Castillo
This pitching matchup is even better than our first featured game as Woodruff takes on a rejuvenated Luis Castillo in the series finale of this four-game set. This series has lacked offense thus far with both teams combining for only 17 runs through the first three games and Vegas thinks this one will be low-scoring as well with the total set at 7.
Woodruff has been one of the best pitchers in baseball in the first half of the season and I think he will handle a Reds lineup that has been scuffling of late. Meanwhile, Castillo has totally turned his season around. Since the start of June, he's started eight times and allowed no more than three earned runs in each start. His walks are trending down and strikeouts are trending up. Two of those June starts were against these Brewers and he struck out 14 of them over 12.2 innings while allowing only three runs.
Trusting either bullpen here is not something I am willing to do, however, with the Reds' pen especially being a unit that has struggled throughout the first half of the season. Our first five number here is 3.5, which is considerably lower than the first game but still a pretty nice number when you consider the quality of pitchers we have going and the recent production of these offenses.
Pick: First Five Innings UNDER 3.5 runs (-120) DraftKings Sportsbook
Good luck, RotoBallers, and enjoy the All-Star break! Stay tuned for more great MLB analysis during the break and more DFS and betting content later in the week!
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