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Welcome officially to the 2023 fantasy baseball season! Spring training is in full force, and fantasy managers are gearing up for another exciting season in the MLB. Once you reach the middle rounds of drafts, everyone is looking to draft players that can provide a great return on value. You can start taking calculated risks on emerging prospects, overlooked veterans, players returning from injury, or even players with some playing time concerns out of the gate. The early rounds are critical, and the late rounds are where you can take your chances on dart-throw sleepers, but the middle rounds can make or break your roster.
Today, we're looking at some middle-round first basemen for you to consider drafting in your season-long leagues this season. Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant fantasy contributions and become a priority mid-round draft target? Read on to see our take.
Our editors have hand-picked these specific MLB players for your draft prep enjoyment. Usually only available to Premium subscribers, the five outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2023 Draft Kit. Be sure to subscribe today to start reading all of our in-depth 2023 player outlooks and many other premium articles and tools including Team Sync, the Live Draft Sync assistant, Custom Rankings Service, and so much more -- available exclusively in our 2023 Draft Kit.
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Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies
Rhys Hoskins is perennially a strong value pick, delivering 30 homers with a .246/.332/.462 line last season. Yet both Phillies fans and the fantasy community are down on him. His 10.7 BB% and 25.1 K% were both worse than his career averages of 13.5% and 23.9%, but he still draws a ton of walks and the strikeouts aren't excessive for a slugger of his caliber. His 25.8% chase rate and 9.9 SwStr% also suggest that Hoskins is better than his surface plate discipline stats.
Nobody does a better job elevating the ball than Hoskins, and last year's 41.7 FB% was a career low. He still cracked 30 bombs and took advantage of the lower FB% to post a career-best .292 BABIP. Hoskins offers solid contact quality with a 94.2 mph average airborne exit velocity and an 11.1% rate of Brls/BBE, and the ball flies out of his home ballpark. Hoskins is even projected as Philadelphia's second hitter, providing plenty of counting stats to go with his homers. Hoskins should easily be a top 100 fantasy player, making his ADP of 114.39 a tremendous value. (Note: Hoskins' ADP has risen to 100 at the time of this publication).
-- Rick Lucks - RotoBaller
Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals
The long-awaited arrival of Vinnie P in Kansas City happened last summer, and while he didn't set the world on fire, he really did dazzle on the field with what he was able to do in the underlying metrics. His contact rate was 84.7%, which isn't all that uncommon, but it is exceedingly rare to find a guy hitting the ball as hard as Pasquantino was hitting it. His 46.9% hard-hit rate was one of the best marks in the league and he kept the ball off the ground (41% GB%) - which is something young players often struggle to do.
Only the league's best hitters are able to keep an above-average barrel rate (which Pasquantino did) while making contact on more than 80% of their swings, and Vinnie did it emphatically. This all sets the bar pretty high for his second year. We know we'll get a good batting average from him, and we are pretty sure he'll hit 25+ homers if given 150+ starts. The ADP does reflect all of this goodness, as he's a top 100 pick despite the lack of a sample - but the floor and ceiling he possesses more than justify the cost.
-- Jon Anderson - RotoBaller
C.J. Cron, Colorado Rockies
The Rockies have certainly gotten their money's worth after signing Cron prior to the 2021 season. Their veteran first baseman has hit 57 homers and driven in 94 runs in these last two years. Cron has now cleared 25 homers in his last four full seasons, proving himself to be one of the game's better power hitters. Coors Field has also boosted his batting average as he has hit .281 and .257 these last two seasons. In both of these years, he has been a great value pick at first base.
Cron will now enter his age-35 season and will be slotted right back into a prominent spot in the Rockies lineup. The bad news here is that in 2022, he saw an increase in K% (26.2%), a decrease in BB% (5.9%), and a significant decrease in xwOBA (.319). It would make sense that his bat might be slowing down given his age, and it does cast some doubt about his prospects in 2023. He still goes in the first 10 rounds in most drafts (ADP of 121), which seems a little bit heavy for a guy that could very well be a two-category bat with declining power, but it might be the right time to jump ship on Cron.
-- Jon Anderson - RotoBaller
Christian Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks
Christian Walker slashed .242/.327/.477 with 36 HR for Arizona last season, but some fantasy managers might not realize it since he did it as a Diamondback. The power is real, as evidenced by his 44.2 FB% and 17.7% HR/FB. His Statcast quality metrics are solid too with 93.8 mph of average airborne exit velocity and an 11.5% rate of Brls/BBE. Unlike most low-average sluggers, Walker only struck out 19.6% of the time last year. He didn't chase bad pitches with a 27.2 O-Swing%, boosted his Z-Contact% to 88.2 from a career mark of 83.5, and shaved more than two full percentage points from his career SwStr% (10.2 vs. 12.5).
Instead, a .248 BABIP was responsible for his low average. His .287 career BABIP and .257 xBA both suggest positive regression is in order. Furthermore, the shift ban should favor Walker as he hit .225 in 278 PAs against a traditional shift but .292 in 140 PAs without a shift. Walker also hits cleanup in an Arizona lineup that's stronger than you think, giving him plenty of opportunities to rack up R+RBI. At an ADP of 141.13, Walker represents a tremendous value on draft day.
--Rick Lucks - RotoBaller
Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles
After hitting 33 homers in his first full season with the Orioles in 2021, it's fair to say no one suffered more from the Orioles' left-field alterations than Ryan Mountcastle. In 145 games last year, Mountcastle had 22 homers, 85 RBI, 62 runs, and four stolen bases while hitting .250/.305/.423. His numbers were very similar to 2021 with the exception of the drop-in homers and his .423 SLG (dropping from .487). He had a 27.6 xHR total and would've hit 40 home runs if he played exclusively in Great American Ball Park last year but only had 23 homers at Orioles Park.
Mountcastle's contact numbers were excellent in 2022, ranking in the 94th percentile for Barrel% (15.0%), 96th percentile for xSLG (.509), and 93rd percentile for xwOBA (.362). Of his 22 homers, 12 were hit to center (five) or left (seven) field so his ability to hit for power the opposite way will help some at home. Mountcastle's 25.3% K% and 7.1% BB% mean he's less valuable in points leagues than in standard leagues. But with an improving Orioles lineup and still only 26 years old come Opening Day, Mountcastle should be able to provide value on his ADP (~159) with the chance to take another step forward in his blossoming career.
--Jamie Steed - RotoBaller
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