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Analysis of four fantasy football running backs that could be league winners. Are these RBs undervalued players and potential league winners to target in deeper 2024 drafts?
Once you reach a certain point in your draft, it's all about drafting upside and finding that potential league winner, such as Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams in 2023. Fantasy managers can afford to take chances on rookies, forgotten veterans, players coming back from injuries, and backs in committees. At this point of the draft, it's worth taking a flyer on players with league-winning upside.
It's essential to have at least a handful of high-upside targets at each position heading into your fantasy football drafts, no matter the format. Here are some late-round running backs with league-winning upside for you to consider drafting this season. Also, check out our other running back sleepers article, which lists other backs who are late-round picks that could potentially break out in 2024.
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Tyjae Spears, Titans, Fantasy Football Outlook
Derrick Henry is out, and Tony Pollard is in. That's a big difference and one that should grant second-year back Tyjae Spears a few extra opportunities this season. When thrust into a workhorse role last season, Pollard saw his efficiency drop off significantly. It's clear he's better with a lighter workload, like how he operated with Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas from 2019-2022. That to say, the Titans would be better off with Pollard in a part-time role as opposed to letting him shoulder the load. That's where Spears comes in. In fact, Titans head coach Brian Callahan has referred to his running backs as interchangeable on multiple occasions this offseason.
Buckle up: Tyjae Spears will breakout this season for fantasy football on the new look Titans! pic.twitter.com/FuxC74ClwG
— Dynasty Nerds (@DynastyNerds) August 10, 2024
However, Spears flashed a ton of potential as a rookie that has many excited for his prospects this season. Per PlayerProfiler, he was fifth among running backs in yards created per touch (4.58) and breakaway run rate (7.0%). Spears was also 11th in yards per route run (1.52) and had a target share of 14.7%. It's possible the Titans start the season with both guys alternating series', but when push comes to shove, one guy is just 23 years old and coming off a fantastic rookie season, and the other guy saw his efficiency tank with a heavier workload. Spears has the skillset to take this job and run with it if he gets off to a fast start. Consider him an RB3 with RB2 upside in 2024.
Jaylen Wright, Dolphins, Fantasy Football Outlook
Miami Dolphins running back Jaylen Wright, who was selected in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft, will not begin his pro career as a starter. However, he's one of the rare third-string running backs worth monitoring in fantasy football. The Dolphins are likely to split the backfield work between veteran Raheem Mostert and youngster De'Von Achane to begin the season, but Wright could be thrust into action at any point. Mostert is 32 years old, and Achane is under 190 pounds, meaning both players have increased injury risk at a brutal position for contact and minor or major ailments.
The vision Jaylen Wright displays here is insane 👀 pic.twitter.com/GzyxjsxyFR
— Bobby Shouse (@B_Shousejr) August 11, 2024
If one or both of the two backs goes down, -- Wright -- who ran a 4.38 forty-yard dash at the NFL combine, will fit right in the offense and possess one-play touchdown upside. After your wide receiver position is set in fantasy drafts, stashing high-upside backup running backs is an advantageous strategy. Wright fits that bill in 12, 14, and 16-team leagues as a rookie.
Justice Hill, Ravens, Fantasy Football Outlook
Baltimore Ravens running back Justice Hill will look to be the lightning to Derrick Henry's thunder this season. While Henry should dominate the early downs (along with Lamar Jackson), Hill should have the passing reps, with Keaton Mitchell likely starting the year out on Baltimore’s PUP list following a torn ACL last season in Week 15. Fifth-round rookie Rasheen Ali likely needs time to prove himself. At first glance, the receiving running back role for the Ravens might not look appealing. Six RBs combined for 56 receptions, 571 yards, and one touchdown in 2023, with Hill contributing half of the receptions, but a consolidated role has value.
#Ravens HC John Harbaugh on Justice Hill:
“He is a high-caliber running back… I think he’s gonna play a lot.”
Harbaugh has an 85% reliability rating on usage/workload coachspeak pic.twitter.com/yvg904IGR1
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) August 1, 2024
If Hill can earn the lion’s share of passing snaps, then he’ll have games worthy of PPR flex consideration even if Henry stays healthy. The problem for Hill is that the Ravens should be leading throughout most games (they have an over/under win total of 11.5 for 2024), meaning the game script would favor Henry. Hill remains a viable handcuff, especially in PPR formats, with a Yahoo overall ADP of 243 and an RB57 RotoBaller rank.
Tyler Allgeier, Falcons, Fantasy Football Outlook
Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier lost his starting role in 2023 after the team drafted future superstar Bijan Robinson. Despite being relegated to backup duties, the sophomore still handled over 200 touches for almost 900 total yards and five touchdowns. Additionally, he finished 18th in yards after contact per attempt and rushing attempts per broken tackle. He was also utilized in the red zone with just one fewer carry inside the 10-yard line than Robinson and the same number of trips to the zone.
Tyler Allgeier, #Falcons
ADP: 12.10The play-calling with the Falcons isn't likely to see Tyler Allgeier replicate his usage from last season, but he's still one of the best back-ups in the league.
His week-to-week output will be next to impossible to predict in redraft… pic.twitter.com/3O8jHnaAen
— 4for4 Fantasy Football (@4for4football) August 12, 2024
There's been plenty of excitement for the pass-catching weapons in Atlanta thanks to the arrival of Kirk Cousins, but the BYU product hasn't received the same hype. If the offense takes the step forward that most of us are projecting, then not only could Allgeier have standalone value as the definitive No. 2 ball carrier, but he's only one injury away from being the starter in what should be a high-scoring team, making him an extremely valuable insurance back.
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