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Below you will find some of my spotlight choices and players to go with when dealing with challenging lineup decisions in Week 13. These selections are based on my Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available as part of the RotoBaller NFL Premium Pass. Enter promo code KING at checkout for a discount and get access to my ranks in all formats, plus a full roster of tools and analysis for the rest of the 2021 season. Skill position analysis here is based on my PPR rankings.
We now add in some betting tips, as many of the recommendations here naturally work into some prime player props. Plus, I also share some over/under, ATS, and money line picks for selected games. All odds and prop plays are via DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Running Backs
-Jamaal Williams had five catches and 83 scrimmage yards (65 rushing) last week. He had 65 scrimmage yards (57 rushing) in his last meeting with Minnesota. Williams has 60+ scrimmage yards in three of his four home games this season. With an expanded workload in Week 13, Williams can easily go over 100 scrimmage yards against the Vikings. Minnesota is 23rd in Fantasy Points Per Game allowed to running backs. They are 27th in the last four weeks. You should certainly consider starting Williams as a RB2 for at least adequate fantasy production.
Betting Tip: Take the Lions at +7, because this is a divisional matchup and it should remain close. The Vikings beat Detroit by two points in the first meeting this season.
-Miles Sanders rushed for 64 yards last week. He has 50-plus scrimmage yards in six of his last seven road games. The Jets are the worst team in the AFC and second overall in Fantasy Points Per Game surrendered to RBs. Sanders should have some yardage upside this week, but he has never been a true goal-line option and he does not have a single TD so far this season. Sanders is a good RB2 play because of the matchup and versatility, but he is not quite a Top 15 fantasy RB this week. He has not rushed for 75 yards in a game this year. If you get into a tight decision between Sanders and another RB ticketed for heavy volume and with better TD promise, you should strongly consider the alternative.
Betting Tip: This is certainly daring, but take the Jets on the money line at +200. This is a game they can win with Gardner Minshew possibly at QB for Philadelphia.
-Devonta Freeman rushed for 52 yards last week and aims for his fifth game in a row with 50+ scrimmage yards. Freeman and Latavius Murray are both in the Baltimore RB mix, but Freeman has been more productive for fantasy purposes lately. If you are digging deeper for RB help or a flex play, Freeman may provide some decent output. The Steelers have allowed the third-most FFPG to RBs over the past four weeks. Pittsburgh is going to have trouble defending the combination of Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore RBs. Jackson has rushed for 65+ yards in each of his last two matchups vs. the Steelers and Pittsburgh will be kept off-balance on defense for much of the day.
Betting Tip: Take Lamar Jackson to score a TD and Baltimore to win at +210.
-Saquon Barkley had 53 scrimmage yards (40 rushing) last week. He has admitted his ankle injury may continue to be a nagging issue for the rest of the season. Whether you start Barkley or not may depend on your record and outlook. If you need a safe floor, Barkley may not be able to provide you with peace of mind. But he does have upside and he is going to be on the field for most of the game. He played on 87 percent of snaps last week. That is an indicator that he appears healthy enough to for the Giants to keep him out there extensively. He also may have to touch the ball a lot because of other injuries on offense. There could be a lot of volume for Barkley against Miami, and all it takes is one play to boost his output. Barkley could deliver another mediocre performance, but the potential is certainly there for him to exceed some tempered expectations.
Betting Tip: Lay the points with Miami (-6 at -115). The Dolphins are hot and New York is no match for them with Mike Glennon at QB. I would strongly consider Miami on the alternate line of -9 (+155).
Wide Receivers
-Darnell Mooney had five catches for a team-high 123 yards last week. He is one of five NFL WRs with three games of 120+ yards in 2021. Mooney is aiming for his third game in a row overall with 120+ yards and his seventh in a row at home with five or more catches. Mooney is certainly in the midst of a breakout. No matter who plays QB for Chicago, he is making big plays. Arizona is fourth best in yards allowed to WRs, though, and weather may be an issue in Chicago this week. It’s hard to bench Mooney right now, but his upside could be capped in Week 13.
Betting Tip: Take the Under of 42.5 in Cardinals-Bears.
-Josh Reynolds had 70 yards and his first TD catch of the season last week in his second game with the Lions. Reynolds was recently cut by a Tennessee team desperate for playmakers, but he has rejoined Jared Goff in Detroit. Familiarity could lead to some quality fantasy production from Reynolds in this situation. In 2018, Reynolds caught five TD passes in eight starts while working with Goff on the Rams.
Betting Tip: Take Reynolds over 36.5 receiving yards at -120.
-DK Metcalf has four TDs in his past four games against the 49ers. He is aiming for his third game in a row at home vs. San Francisco with six or more catches, 80+ yards, and a TD. But Metcalf has just not been that same type of Fantasy producer over the past three games since Russell Wilson returned from a finger injury. Defenses are making a strong effort to take Metcalf away and Wilson has not forced the ball in his direction. That outlook may change this week, as offensive coordinator Shane Waldron has emphasized that the Seahawks need to get Metcalf the ball. You do not want to miss out on a possible bounce-back performance, and if you start three WRs, it’s very likely that the third option does not compare to Metcalf in terms of proven upside. Keep him in your lineup in leagues that require three starting WRs. In two receiver formats, you can consider reserving him for now.
Betting Tip: Take Metcalf at +380 to score the Seahawks’ first TD.
-T.Y. Hilton notched his first receiving TD of the season last week. He had a season-high 80 yards in Week 6 vs. the Texans and aims for his fourth game in a row vs. Houston with 70 yards. Hilton has been a notorious Texans killer throughout his career. In 20 career games vs. Houston, Hilton has 1,883 yards and 11 TD catches. But Jonathan Taylor may be the star of the day again vs. the NFL’s 31st ranked run defense, and such a script could limit any upside in the Colts passing game. Hilton would not surprise anyone if he scored vs. Houston, but you may not want to overrate the upside for the Colts passing game this week.
Betting Tip: It is worth considering Taylor for 150+ rushing yards and two TDs at +600.
Quarterback and Tight End
-Derek Carr passed for 373 yards last week, his fourth game with 350+ pass yards this season, tied with Tom Brady for the most in the NFL in 2021. Washington allows the most FFPG to QBs and Carr is a good streaming option for Week 13.
Betting Tip: Take the Over of 48 in Washington-Las Vegas.
-Kyle Pitts ranks third among NFL TEs in receiving yards (661) and third among NFC TEs in receptions (45). He had five catches for 73 yards in his last meeting with Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers are 26th in FFPG allowed to TEs. But Pitts has not scored in his past six games, and he has not caught more than four passes or reached 65 receiving yards in his last five. He is not a Top 10 TE start this week and you should not hesitate to use alternative options such as Foster Moreau or Zach Ertz.
Betting Tip: Lay the points with the Buccaneers at -10.5. The Falcons are an easy punching bag for good teams.
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