RADIO
Starting pitcher (SP) Kevin Gausman was traded from the Orioles to the Braves just before the 2018 MLB trade deadline. Elliott Baas analyzes the fantasy impact of the deal for the second half of the season and beyond for dynasty owners.
With so many big-name players changing teams this trade deadline Kevin Gausman may fly under the radar. On the surface, he doesn’t look like much, with a 5-8 record and 4.43 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and 7.55 K/9 in 21 starts with Baltimore this season. However, this move to Atlanta could be exactly what Gausman needs to find success.
Gausman was traded from Baltimore along with currently injured reliever Darren O'Day for four minor leaguers. The minor leaguers are pitchers Evan Phillips and Bruce Zimmerman, catcher Brett Cumberland, and infielder Jean Carlos Encarnacion. Phillips is the only player currently on the Orioles' 40-man roster that may see time in the majors this season, and even then it would be as a reliever.
As far as redraft league players should be concerned, Gausman is the only player that will have any fantasy value this season, and this trade will be a big boost to his value.
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Rest of Season Outlook
Baltimore was perhaps the worst situation for a pitcher like Gausman, with only Colorado and Texas rivaling it as poor places to pitch. He was pitching for the worst team in the AL East and playing home games in hitter-friendly Camden Yards. Not only is Camden Yards the fifth best park for home runs (per ESPN Park Factors), three divisional opponents (Boston, Toronto, and New York) are ranked top five in team ISO. Gausman is having his worst season in terms of home run suppression, allowing 1.52 HR/9, but it looks like the ballpark and division are contributing to his gopheritis. SunTrust Park in Atlanta has proven to heavily favor pitchers this season, with the lowest home run factor in the majors. Pitching his home games at SunTrust and with weak-hitting divisional opponents like the Marlins and Mets Gausman should experience better home run suppression.
To get an idea of how the ballpark shift helps we can compare him to his former teammate, Dylan Bundy. They are two similar pitchers because they each possess an elite strikeout pitch, but home run issues and a bad fastball make them both incredibly volatile on a start-by-start basis. Home run issues have plagued both Gausman and Bundy for their entire careers, making it look like these issues are unfixable, but there is hope for Gausman.
Bundy has earned his 2.03 HR/9 with an average flyball distance of 199 feet (fifth highest among qualified starts), 89.5 MPH average exit velocity against (also fifth highest among qualified starters), and 47.4% flyball rate (fourth highest among qualified starters). Camden Yards may exacerbate Bundy’s issues, but that is a recipe for home runs. Compare those numbers to Gausman, whose average flyball distance of 161 feet is 81st among qualified starters, his 88.6 MPH average exit velocity is 28th, and his 32.3% flyball rate is 57th. No ballpark can shield Dylan Bundy from his home run issues, but there is room for improvement in Gausman. Pitching in the National League East should help Gausman put a dent into his bloated 16.7% HR/FB ratio.
Another problem with the Orioles is their despicably poor team defense. They have been good for -79 defensive runs saved (DRS) this season, worst in baseball. While the struggles of Manny Machado’s defense at shortstop were well scrutinized and documented, the Orioles’ outfield was just as bad with a -34 DRS collectively, including -15 from both Adam Jones and Trey Mancini. Atlanta’s defense has fared much better, with +42 DRS collectively and +17 DRS from their outfield. Gausman has a career-high 47% groundball rate thanks to increased splitter usage, so he will certainly benefit from a better defense behind him.
Increased splitter usage is the one thing we’ve hoped for from Gausman over the course of his career. Gausman’s splitter is among the best off-speed pitches in baseball, and despite his struggles this season he is still getting great results with the pitch. Batters are hitting .179 with a .152 ISO and 21.6% whiff rate this season. When batters do put the pitch in play they don’t get much, as it has an 83 MPH average exit velocity against and 67.4% groundball rate. This split-changeup is a weapon that Gausman can use to get strikeouts or groundballs seemingly at will. He’s throwing it a career-high 22% of the time, which has given him an 11.4% SwStr rate, also a career high. That hasn’t translated to a great strikeout rate as Gausman is currently at 7.55 K/9, but he has a better SwStr than pitchers like J.A. Happ and Mike Foltynewicz.
He may not reach 10 K/9 like those pitchers, but more strikeouts seem likely for Gausman going forward. He got a lot more interesting after this trade, and Gausman should be back on standard mixed league radars. In NL-only leagues, he is the consolation prize to Chris Archer as a starting pitcher, but he’s still worth a significant portion of remaining FAAB. Teams that do not have the most FAAB ought to consider using the rest on Gausman. Archer, Brian Dozier, and Jonathan Schoop will all command the remainder of an owner's budget, meaning someone with the fourth or fifth most FAAB left could sneak Gausman through by throwing their dollars at him.
How This Affects the Braves Rotation
As far as the Braves’ rotation, Gausman is expected to start on Friday, though things may change if the Braves experience a rainout. That would seem to suggest that Max Fried is being bumped from the rotation as Fried was originally scheduled to start on Friday. Fried has shown flashes of brilliance this season, highlighted by an 11-strikeout game against the Cardinals, but inexperience and command issues will probably land him in the bullpen or minor leagues. Fried has an 11.22 K/9, but a 5.61 BB/9 makes him tough to trust for a contending team like the Braves. A more pragmatic decision would be to remove Julio Teheran from the rotation. Teheran has been a mainstay in Atlanta’s rotation since he was 22 years old, but his performance has deteriorated over the past two seasons. He has a 4.46 ERA and 5.33 FIP in 115 innings this season, along with a stomach-churning 1.64 HR/9 and career-high 11.8% walk rate. It seems unlikely that Teheran would be removed from the rotation based on his history with the team, but it’s probably the best move for the club at this point. Fried’s redraft league value will plummet if he’s removed from the rotation, and Teheran shouldn’t be used in standard mixed leagues anyway.
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