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Welcome back, RotoBallers, to another KBO DFS column. If you haven't signed up for the RotoBaller Premium Slack chat, it's a great space to chat during the day about the lineups. You can also follow me and the other Rotoballer writers on Twitter. In particular, @efhatch1990dfs has his personal KBO DFS Cheat Sheets which you will now be able to find on RotoBaller.
New to KBO? Don't worry, we got you covered! DraftKings and FanDuel will use the same scoring system that they do for MLB, however, the roster builds are much different on FanDuel. You must roster two infielders, two outfielders, and two utility players along with a pitcher for a total of only seven players on FanDuel. DraftKings has kept its normal MLB structure with two starting pitchers and an entire eight-hitter lineup for a total of ten players.
Building lineups on each site is going to be a good bit different on most nights, but I've tried to give you enough options and thoughts behind each option so that you can make the best decision based on your build preference. Today, I'll be providing my KBO DFS lineup picks and analysis for this five-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 5:30 AM on Friday, July 3, 2020. You can check our daily KBO Betting Picks as well, which Steve usually posts around 8 PM.
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KBO DFS Pitchers
Important note for those who are used to playing MLB DFS on DraftKings is that, since the quality of pitching in the KBO is inferior to the MLB, the typical MLB cash game strategy of loading up on two high-powered arms for safety tends to be less successful. There are rarely two pitchers on a KBO slate who we feel extremely confident in for fantasy purposes. On DraftKings, we've found that taking the lowest-salaried SP2 from the options you're legitimately considering will often cost you around 6-8 total points in your lineup but saves you almost $2,000 that you can spend up on bats who will more than make up that difference.
Raul Alcantara (DOO)
$8.6K DraftKings, $28 FanDuel
The Dominican native is my favorite pitcher on the slate given his price and tasty matchup against Hanwha in Jamsil, which is the best pitcher's park in the league. Alcantara comes into this game with a 3.69 ERA and 1.25 WHIP across 10 starts. While he doesn't have tremendous strikeout upside - just 52 in 63.1 innings - he has tossed eight quality starts in his ten games and as averaged over six innings per start. More time on the mound means more time to rack up points against the league's worst offense, whether that comes from strikeouts or just outs recorded. With Hanwha hitting .252 as a team on the road this year and only .232 against right-handed pitchers in the month of June, it's hard to see Alcantara getting hit hard, and we know the Bears will put him in a tremendous position to earn a win bonus.
Eric Jokisch (KIW)
$9.7K DraftKings, $30 FanDuel
On most slates, Jokisch would be my favorite arm. He's been absolutely dynamite this season, with a 1.42 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in ten starts and nine quality starts while giving up only 44 hits in 63.1 innings. To top it off, Kiwoom comes into this game as the hottest team in the league, which makes it seem like the perfect combination for another strong effort and win. However, his match-up and price are giving me pause. Even though the KT Wiz have been struggling, they own the league's best batting average against left-handed pitchers (.31o) and have hit the second-most home runs in the league off of lefties (15). Their one major weakness is that they strikeout more against left-handers than any team in the league, but Jokisch only has 45 strikeouts in 63.1 innings, so he's more about limiting hard contact than putting guys away. I wouldn't fully fade Jokisch because I think he's a talented arm, but I'm not ready to blindly write him into all of my lineups considering the bats on the other side.
Tyler Wilson (LG)
$9.5K DraftKings, $25 FanDuel
Now we start to get into the typical KBO terrain of decent pitchers with not so great match-ups. Wilson has been OK this season, but he has yet to match the quality of performances that saw him pitch to a 2.92 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in the KBO last season. His 4.47 ERA and 1.32 WHIP are fine, but he's basically been a "quality start pitcher" at best. He's struck out 37 batters in 52.1 innings, so he's also been only average in that regard; however, his value is that he's gone at least six innings in all but three of his starts and has a solid offense behind him. The Samsung Lions have been heating up of late, hitting .284 at home over the last month, but only .211 against right-handed pitching. In fact, Samsung has the third-worst batting average against right-handed pitching in the KBO. It's not enough to make me think that Wilson is a lock, but it's enough to make me think that another quality start could be in the works, and since the American has only had one truly bad start this season, he makes for a safe, if somewhat uninspiring choice.
Jung Hyun Baek (SAM)
$6.0K DraftKings, $22 FanDuel
Welcome to price meeting opportunity. Baek is certainly not my favorite arm on the slate, but he's the cheapest, and his match-up isn't as bad as people think. The left-hander comes into the start with a 4.50 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, striking out 30 batters in 38 innings across seven starts. He's been on a decent fantasy run of late, scoring over 23 DraftKings points in three of his last four outings, and faces an LG team that has been a bit banged up of late but also features left-handed hitters in many of the key spots in their lineup. In fact, even though LG hits .297 against left-handers on the season, they've hit only six home runs on the year against them, second-worst in the league. Baek got tagged by the Twins earlier in the year, but their offense isn't as healthy now and he's looked like a whole new pitcher over his last four starts, so I'm willing to take the risk given his low price.
Other Options
- Adrian Sampson (LOT) - 8.4K DraftKings, $25 FanDuel - Sampson hasn't been great in his first year in the KBO, even though he showed a flash of brilliance when he went six shutout innings against KT while allowing only three hits and striking out seven. His other five starts have all featured some rough patches, so he's only here because of the matchup. SK is terrible on the road, with a 4-21 record, a league-worst .232 batting average, and a second-worst 17 total home runs. They fare significantly better against right-handed pitching, so Sampson might be hit hard, but on a slate with so many question marks, he's worth considering, but his high price will likely keep me away.
- Ricardo Pinto (SK) - 6.5K DraftKings, $20 FanDuel - On the other side of the match-up is Pinto. The 26-year-old has been fairly solid in his first season in the KBO with a 4.02 ERA and six quality starts in ten appearances. However, he's registered a 1.66 WHIP and has only struck out 35 batters in 56 innings, so his overall fantasy upside is a bit hampered. He is also facing a Lotte team that has hit .277 at home on the season and .292 at home over the last 30 days. The Giants don't strike out much as a team, so Pinto doesn't figure to rack up points that way, but they also don't hit a lot of HRs, and he's only given up one on the season, so there is less of a chance of a blow-up outing here. As one of the lower-priced arms on the slate, he's not a bad SP2 on DraftKings if you're just hoping for double-digit points.
KBO Top Hitter Stacks
It's important to remember, as mentioned above, that KBO DFS has played out differently than MLB DFS. It impacts the hitters by limiting the depth of the stacks we recommend. Since many KBO lineups are not as deep as MLB lineups, you can get away with playing three-man stacks in almost all builds. Obviously, going up to four-men stacks in GPP is fine, but going above that is not really recommended in KBO. This means that a 3/3/2 stack becomes playable in GPP (especially if you stack a game) and 3/2/2/1 is completely feasible in a cash game lineup and allows you to get strong individual batters without having to worry about loading up on his teammates.
Doosan Bears
Doosan at home is not an ideal stacking opportunity. As a team, they hit .251 with 10 HR at home and .321 with 41 HR on the road. It's a pretty alarming split that shows just how much of a pitcher's park Jamsil really is. However, Doosan also does have the largest collection of hitters that have returned DFS value and are facing the Hanwha Eagles, which makes them a tempting stack regardless of where they are playing. If you are going to use Doosan tonight, I would recommend filling the rest of your roster with upside bats since the Doosan options should give you strong results but not an immense upside at home.
Main Targets:
- Jose Fernandez - 1B/2B (6.1K DraftKings, $17 FanDuel) - Recently, Grownfool researched the hitters who have produced the most games two standard deviations above the mean. For us laypeople who were only average in math, he's basically looking at the times the players have outproduced the average range of DFS production by two times the amount. Fernandez leads the league. Hitting out of the number two spot in the order, he is a consistent threat for HR, RBI, and the oft-overlooked runs.
- Jae Il Oh - 1B (4.2K DraftKings, $15 FanDuel) - Oh has been one of Doosan's best hitters when healthy, batting .377 over the last month with 3 HR and 12 RBI. He hits third in the Bears lineup and should have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs tomorrow.
- Kun Woo Park - OF (4.3K DraftKings, $13 FanDuel) - The leadoff hitter is batting an absurd .415 over the last month with a team-leading 23 runs. He doesn't have the power to change your slate in one swing, but he is likely to get on base and score a few times against a bad opponent, which should lead to a solid final total.
Secondary Targets:
- Jae Hwan Kim - 1B/OF (5.7K DraftKings, $17 FanDuel) Kim's average hasn't been there recently, hitting just .269 over the last month, but his 6 HRs are most on the team over that span and his 11 on the season lead the team, so if there is a hitter who can take one out of Jamsil, it's him.
- Joo-Hwan Choi - 1B/2B (3.5K DraftKings, $13 FanDuel) - Choi has hit .321 over the last month and is second on the team with 3 HR and 21 RBI over that span. At his depressed price, he makes for an intriguing play.
- Kyoung Min Hur - 3B (3.5K DraftKings, $8 FanDuel) - Hur returned from a hamstring injury on June 23rd and has been seeing the ball very well since coming back, hitting .343 with 2 HR and 6 RBI. He hits near the bottom of the order, so the counting stats don't usually follow, but, as I've said a few times before, 3B is often a dumpster fire on Draftkings, so he's not a bad option there.
Kiwoom Heroes
I find it hard to fade a team that has gone 12-2 in their last 14 games, especially when Kiwoom is back on the road, where they hit .276 with 33 HRs as a team as opposed to .267 with 24 HRs at home. It might not seem like a major difference but considering they have almost 100 fewer at-bats on the road this season, the home run difference is worth mentioning. Odrisamer Despaigne also has allowed the second-most HRs of any pitcher on the slate tonight, so there's a decent chance that the Heroes get to him for at least one.
Main Targets:
- Jung-Ho Lee - OF (4.4K DraftKings, $14 FanDuel) - Based on Grownfool's research, Lee has been one of the top-5 hitters in the KBO in terms of times he's returned massive DFS value. He is at the center of almost everything they do on offense with a .367 average, 7 HRs, 35 RBI, and a 1.049 OPS. He's hitting .379 with 3 HR and 15 RBI over the last month and remains as potent a bat as ever.
- Don-Won Park- C (5.3K DraftKings, $9 FanDuel) - Park, on the other hand, has been struggling of late, hitting .239 over the last month. That does come with 3 HR and 11 RBI, which gives him more upside than most other catchers on the slate, but the form hasn't been there of late. One thing to note is that he has hit .304 on the road this season, so perhaps being away from home is what he needs.
- Ha-Seong Kim - SS (5.1K DraftKings, $16 FanDuel) - Kim returned from a brief injury that depressed his price and has four hits in his last two games. He's hit .299 with 6 HR, 20 RBI, and 5 SB over the last month so there are a number of ways that he can put up points for you.
Secondary Targets:
- Keon-Chang Seo - 1B/2B (4.4K DraftKings, $10 FanDuel) - Seo has struggled a bit of late, hitting .279 over the last month. However, he hits lead-off for the Heroes and has 6 SB this month, which is why he remains a top-25 bat in terms of Grownfool's research. That speed and lineup spot raise his fantasy floor and keep him on the radar.
- Hye-Sung Kim - 2B/SS (3.0K DraftKings, $9 FanDuel) Kim has hit .270 with 4 HR, 15 RBI, 17 R, and 3 SB over the last 30 days. It's not crazy production, but he offers solid results at a budget cost.
- Byung-ho Park - 1B (4.5K DraftKings, $14 FanDuel) - You roster Park for his power. The first baseman has hit only .226 on the year and .222 over the last 30 days, but he has 7 HR in that span, 13 on the year, and hit two out against Doosan last night. Perhaps he's seeing the ball fairly well right now.
LG Twins
LG is on the road, away from Jamsil, which we've already discussed is a big benefit to their offense. They're facing a left-handed pitcher, which isn't ideal since some of their best fantasy producers are left-handed hitters, but I think there is enough value in the lineup to roster them.
- Roberto Ramos - LG 1B (5.3K DraftKings, $17 FanDuel) - Ramos is a left-handed hitter that has only hit .268 with 2 HRs off of left-handed pitching on the season. He wouldn't be at the top of my list today, but he has the power to change your DFS lineup in one swing and outside of Jamsil that might be worth the risk.
- Kang Nam Yoo - C OF (4.5K DraftKings, $10 FanDuel) - Yoo used a tremendous June to propel himself among the elite fantasy catchers. He hit .338 over the month and led the team with 19 RBIs, plus he leads the team with a .467 average and 3 HR against left-handed pitching this year.
- Eun Sung Chae - LG OF (3.1K DraftKings, $13 FanDuel) - The right-handed hitting Chae came off the DL and has been back to his usual self in the Twins lineup. He's hit .290 off of left-handers on the season and comes at a cheap enough salary on DraftKings that it's easy for him to return a profit.
Small Stacks
As I mentioned above, small stacks in KBO DFS are more about picking and choosing your bats to fill out the remainder of your lineup. You don't need to worry so much about having three or so from a particular team. As such, I'm going to give you some bats I like on a couple of teams because you're likely to mix and match as you want.
- Ah Seop Son (LOT) - OF (3.9K DraftKings, $13 FanDuel) - Son doesn't have a ton of power, but he's hit .400 with 22 RBI and 17 R since June started. With Lotte hitting the ball well of late, if they get to Pinto it's likely that their lead-off hitter Son will be involved.
- Jun Woo Jeon (LOT) - OF (4.3K DraftKings, $12 FanDuel) - Jeon is a top-7 hitter in the KBO in terms of Grownfool's research. He's tied for the team lead with 9 HRs and could easily put one out against Pinto tomorrow.
- Dae Ho Lee (LOT) - 1B (4.0K DraftKings, $10 FanDuel) Tied for the team lead with Jeon is Lee, who has 9 HRs on the year but 7 over the last month to go along with a .287 average. The veteran has been heating up, and it's time for us to take notice.
- Jamie Romak (SK) - 1B/OF (4.5K DraftKings, $13 FanDuel) - According to Grownfool's research, Romak is a top-15 hitter in terms of time's he's produced two times over the standard deviation. He's perhaps the best hitter on an SK team, leading the team in RBI and placing second in HR. They now get to face a vulnerable Adrian Sampson, which makes him worth a look.
- Jeong Choi (SK) - 3B/SS (5.2K DraftKings, $15 FanDuel) - Pairing Choi with Romak could be a great play in GPPs with a Doosan stack. Choi is the Wyverns HR leader with 9, and he and Romak could have huge games against Sampson to go with the safety of Doosan. (In fact, running a LOT/SK build in GPP might not be a bad idea if you want to bet against those two volatile arms).
Good luck with your DFS contests everyone. Be sure to stop back every day for more KBO DFS analysis here at RotoBaller!
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