RADIO
Back again with more insight into the industry mock draft that took place last Thursday. This time we’re looking at the picks that each of us wished we could give the ol’ Men in Black memory wipe to everyone else. Again, I’ll be following everyone’s thoughts with a brief commentary of my own because it’s my article and I can.
Here’s the lineup: Kyle Bishop (RotoBaller), Alex Chamberlain (RotoGraphs/RotoBaller), Brad Johnson (RotoBaller), Joe Gallina (RotoExperts), Keith Lott (WeTalkFantasySports), Nate Miller (Sporting News), Nick Mariano (RotoBaller), Justin Mandaro (TheFantasyFix), Alex Beckey (BaseballHQ), Jarad Wilk (New York Post), Justin Mason/Paul Sporer (RotoGraphs), and George Bissel (Baseball Prospectus).
Q: Which pick of yours do you wish you could erase from our memories?
George Bissell (Baseball Prospectus)
Zach Britton - Zach Britton (7th Round, #84 overall) simply because I didn't want to have to take him where I did, but was left with little choice. With two picks back-to-back on the turn, I was dead set on taking a pair of either outfielder Billy Hamilton, starter Cole Hamels or closer Kenley Jansen, until all three unexpectedly (especially in the case of Hamilton) went off the board in the three consecutive selections preceding my picks. Forced to change rather dramatically on the fly, I went with Britton because he was the top player left on my board. While I'm sure he wasn't ranked that high by others, I wasn't confident he would make it back to me 23 picks later.
I'm sure there are many fantasy owners that are reading this right now and wondering why I took Britton over Craig Kimbrel. Simply put, I valued Britton higher than Kimbrel. The southpaws 79 percent ground ball rate over the past two seasons is a huge reason why he's posted a 1.77 ERA over that span. Kimbrel may rack up more strikeouts, but Britton is no slouch (10.8 K/9) in that department and I feel he's a safer bet to return an investment that early.
I don’t have much to add, this is a thorough rundown that speaks to the craziness that can come your way when you pick on the elbow of a snake draft. While I personally have Kimbrel over Britton, I don’t begrudge anyone for having this high of an opinion of Britton. He’s shown himself to be legitimate and didn’t just move teams/leagues like Kimbrel. Comfort is underrated.
Justin Mason (RotoGraphs)
Maikel Franco - Not that I don't love him, but I was finishing up a podcast and didn't realize that Anthony Rendon was still on the board. By the time it got back to me I figured I didn't need Rendon as much as filling in my starting pitching.
Blasphemy! Okay, I see where he’s coming from, and it can be annoying to realize that there was someone you wanted more still on the board versus the player you selected. I want Franco over Rendon myself, as I see Franco trending upwards with a safe floor/high ceiling despite playing for the Phillies. Meanwhile Rendon has quite a few questions surrounding the legitimacy of his power and how willing Washington will be to let him run after last year’s injuries.
Jarad Wilk (NY Post)
Byron Buxton - Byron Buxton. I needed an outfielder, but this may have been too much of a reach for me in Round 11. I also didn't intend to draft Eric Hosmer when I did, but I am not unhappy with the pick.
The need for outfielders has extra emphasis in the 5-OF format we used, and Buxton was selected right behind Michael Brantley and Billy Burns came off the board, and Christian Yelich was taken after this Buxton selection. I’d prefer Yelich here as he’s more established, but Buxton’s potential for insane speed and fairly clear path to a starting job in center field isn’t terrible here. He's been a highly touted prospect for many years now, and while last year was underwhelming to say the least, his pedigree mixed with Minnesota's unlikelihood to contend means he should get his fair share of opportunities in 2016.
Alex Beckey (BaseballHQ)
Jose Reyes - I drafted Jose Reyes in the 14th round for my utility slot. I felt comfortable doing that because I had already filled my SS and MI slots with Bogaerts and Seager. Although we didn’t draft bench slots, when I saw Kyle Bishop take Jung-Ho Kang (12.12) and Nick Mariano take Yu Darvish (13.7) – both of whom will likely spend at least the first month of the season on the DL – I took that as my cue to draft Reyes. Reyes was one of only 3 shortstops to steal over 20 bases in 2015, and the only one of those three to bat above .270. I figured that if I needed to drop him, the utility slot would be the easiest to fill. However, if something happens between now and Opening Day and Reyes is somehow cleared to play, it would be much more difficult to pick him up just after the news breaks.
I respect the approach taken here, but I do have to say that there’s a difference between a guy you can stash on the DL and a guy that gets slapped with that suspended tag. Unless you have that NA slot to utilize, it can tie you up. That said, Reyes still is technically a part of the team that plays at Coors Field and Jose did steal 24 bags last year in only 116 games, which might be close to what his 2016 looks like if he gets a 50 game suspension and no one has run with the job in Colorado (and they still want him as a part of the team in the aftermath of whatever the trial brings).
Justin Mandaro (TheFantasyFix)
Andrew Miller - Honestly, I am surprised this hasn't been mentioned by the others for the Biggest Reach of the draft. But my selection of Andrew Miller in the 13th round was a complete stretch for me. Aroldis Chapman has already been named the starting closer and despite his 30 game suspension will be back and will be the guy. Miller should get a good 6 weeks back there and if he can get 8 - 12 saves in that time span I will be pretty happy with it. But I made that selection and I don't even really know why I did it to be honest. Maybe hoping to catch lightning in a bottle and hope that he plays so well that Chapman loses the job because he wasn't available. (I know, wishful thinking).
I can see how Miller feels like a stretch here, but I think most of us saw it as fair due to his being so talented regardless of his role and still going after relievers like A.J. Ramos, Hector Rondon, Shawn Tolleson, and Chapman himself. Dellin Betances went in Round 18, for what it’s worth. Miller can still give you 100 Ks and healthy ratios alongside those 10 saves throughout the year, and it isn't as though he still isn't in the catbird seat to close should Chapman get injured over the course of the season.
Nick Mariano (RotoBaller)
Yu Darvish - Yu Darvish in Round 13 seems really unnecessary looking back on things. I like his upside, but I don't think I needed to do that there.
It’s hard to elaborate here, as it isn’t that I was upset in getting Darvish, it just hit me pretty quickly that I probably didn’t have to burn my 13th round pick on him. I was considering taking either Lucas Duda, Shin-Soo Choo, or taking J.T. Realmuto for my second catcher, but went Darvish because if he can be anywhere close to the ace we came to love, then I have an SP1/2 type for my SP4. It felt like a decent spot to take the risk, but I can’t help but feel like I should have taken either Duda or Choo and hoped for Darvish on the way back in the 14th.
Keith Lott (WeTalkFantasySports)
Khris Davis - Not a huge fan of Khris Davis but I was short on OF late in the draft and had to take someone.
Another reality blow thanks to the 5-OF format, but in the 17th round it can be difficult to split hairs about a guy like Davis who hasn’t posted an ISO below .214 at the major league level. The O.co Coliseum isn’t Miller Park, I know, but he’s still a big bopper and quietly upped his walks from 5.8% to 10.0% last year. He should be locked into the heart of the order here, and could still give owners a healthy profit margin here thanks to the blowback from being traded to Oakland really sinking his perceived draft day value.
Joe Gallina (RotoExperts)
Ben Revere - I actually don’t want to erase myself from your memories at all – please keep me in your thoughts at all times and follow me on twitter @joegallina, but seriously folks, I guess I jumped the gun a bit by taking Ben Revere in the eighth round. I guess I got rattled when I saw Billy Hamilton get taken in the seventh round.
Don’t worry Joe, I haven’t gotten you out of my thoughts ever since. It’s interesting to think about Revere’s value being tied to when Billy Hamilton gets taken, sensible, but interesting. ~40 steals with a .300 average and a run total that could hit triple digits atop the Nationals’ lineup, I’d be okay with this more often than not. While he may not steal as many bags as the Hamburglar (there you go Kyle), his hitting-tool is very established at the major league level and he could do great things for Washington. I'd be curious to see where he would have gone had Joe not taken him here, how wide the gap in perceived value between he and Hamilton is outside of this. My wager: not much.
Brad Johnson (RotoBaller / Fangraphs)
Alex Gordon - There weren't really any picks I hated, but I did have a couple search snafus that negatively affected me. I searched for Anthony Rendon when I picked Odor and was 50/50 on which I would pick. Except Rendon didn't show up in my search. So I assumed he was picked. I definitely would have taken Rendon over Alex Gordon or Hanley Ramirez on the 8/9 turn.
Similarly, while I don't hate Grandal in the 11th round, my search for d'Arnaud revealed no results. Had I known he was available, I would have picked him. These sound like weird problems, but the draft platform wasn't particularly good for seeing who was already picked. And I wasn't keeping track manually since it was a mock.
Yeah this was a subject that came up a few times, the struggle of navigating a player pool on a site we weren’t all too intimate with. Rendon ends up going almost two rounds later than this selection, but either way Gordon and Ramirez are still good picks. Brad told me he would intend to slot Hanley in at 1B once he gained eligibility, hence there being 6 OFs technically on the team without a first-bagger.
Alex Chamberlain (RotoGraphs / RotoBaller)
Howie Kendrick - Howie Kendrick (17.02 / 194th). It's not especially bad, but it completely changed the trajectory of my late-round strategy. Marcus Semien in the 14th round flustered the bejeezus out of me.
This brings up another angle of how you can dislike a pick. Nothing necessarily bad about the player or pick itself, but each pick does dictate your future and how your resource allocation breaks down. Kendrick himself a solid, if uninspiring, selection where you know what you're getting. Roughly a .290 average alongside double-digit pop and hopefully eight steals or so if he can stay healthy. Semien's 15/10/.250 is more desirable, but I'm not sure if it's worth three rounds. I do acknowledge that Kendrick is hitting that age where the decline cometh, but I think a 12/8/.290 year is still very possible there.
Kyle Bishop (RotoBaller)
Adam Eaton - Honestly, I don't feel as though I made any egregiously embarrassing selections, but in hindsight I do regret picking Adam Eaton at 96. I'm a believer, but I already had three outfielders at the time and I completely missed that Anthony Rendon was still on the board (he didn't get picked until 111, somehow). Had I gone with Rendon, I could have snagged Yasmani Grandal or Travis d'Arnaud instead of Dustin Pedroia at the end of the 10th round, freeing me up to draft Brett Gardner instead of Devin Mesoraco to kick off the 13th.
Hehe, Kyle doesn’t think he embarrassed himself, okay nobody tell him. I kid, he had a great draft and stole Joe Ross from me late. He knows what he did. Here’s another guy piping up about missing that Rendon was available. Look at that butterfly effect he described, the chain reactions are far too real. For the record, I like Eaton a lot this year but I see what Kyle is getting at about filling up his OF4 slot when Rendon could have gone to 2B and just allowed for a greater “overall” image. Very important stuff to keep in mind, opportunity cost is a helluva concept.
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