X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Identifying Burnout for Starting Pitchers (Before It's Too Late!)

Antonio Losada examines high usage rates by starting pitchers compared to historical trends to find SP who may experience second-half burnout. These players may be sell candidates for fantasy baseball.

We live in the era of data. There are numbers everywhere, and more than in any other place (in the context of sports), in baseball. Statistics have been a fundamental part of the batted-ball rounds for decades now. And as couldn't be otherwise, more and more franchises are at the cutting edge, putting analysis to practice and employing the very best methods they can come up with to get the best results on the field.

One of the most sought after and talked about trends in baseball nowadays is that of pitchers' usage. Each passing year it seems we recognize how pitchers (or any player, for that matter) are humans at the end of the day and continuous and prolonged performance at a maximum level of effort can be quite taxing.

This is why starting pitchers, more than any other players in baseball, are seeing their work rates cut.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Where Do We Come From?

We just have to take a quick look at the data to see how this is indeed a fact. I have pulled every starting pitcher-season from 2010 to 2019 from Fangraphs. There are 762 player-seasons in the dataset. Then, I've plotted every player-season in the next chart (excluding those of 2019 to not introduce noise while calculating the trendline):

The circles in red represent players with 30 or more starts and the circles in green those with fewer than 30. The size, although not very appreciable, is also related to the number of games started.

I don't think there are any doubts left of what's going on. Each passing season there have been fewer starting pitchers throwing great amounts of innings.

 

Where Are We Headed?

If we add the 2019 player-seasons to the chart, we can see how the leaders of the pack are about to catch the trailers from past years:

That dot leading the way for the 2019 pitchers is Trevor Bauer. He's started 24 games by the date I obtained the data (August 2) with a combined 156.2 IP. Although he's still way behind Max Scherzer's 220.2 IP in 33 G last year, he's only less than five innings from getting on par with 2018 season's trailer Ivan Nova. The problem is that Bauer is going to catch him having pitched in five few games!

But we need to dig deeper and thread finer if we really need to know the truth. And the truth, in this case, is not hidden under games or innings pitched, but rather in pitches thrown.

Suppose Bauer were removing hitters on a one-pitch per PA basis (every throw becomes a groundout). He'd have thrown 156.2 IP * 3 batters per inning, which is a total of 468 plus two extra hitters, that is, a square 470 pitches. Ivan Nova threw a total of 2529 pitches last year. That is nothing abnormal. In fact, the abnormal would be to only throw 470 pitches to remove 470 batters. But you get the idea.

What the real data says is that while Ivan Nova took 2529 pitches to remove 683 batters (200 more than if he had only faced three per inning). That is an average of 3.7 pitches per batter. On the other hand, Trevor Bauer has thrown 2685 pitches and faced 664 batters for an average of 4.04 pitches per batter. As you can see, the load Bauer is carrying is already considerable and only looks like it gets even worse during the next few weeks.

 

Identifying Potential Burnouts - An Introductory Example

To try and find some potential pitchers with a high risk of burning out during the final stretch of the season I'm only going to use data from the 2017, 2018 and 2019 seasons. I am going to calculate differences from one year to another (from 2017 to 2018, and from 2018 to 2019), calculate some average metrics related to pitching, and find some burnout candidates.

My dataset includes 337 pitcher-seasons. Given that some starters have suffered injuries in that timeframe, others may have changed teams and roles, joined different rotations with different levels of talent, etc, I'm going to only look at pitchers which in 2018 played between seven more/seven fewer games from those they played in 2017, with a minimum of 23 G. That would get rid of some outliers. 62 of them did so.

Of those 62 starters, only four (Jameson Taillon, Blake Snell, Jose Berrios, and Zack Godley) played 7 G over what they did in 2017. Of those, though, only Zack Godley averaged more pitches per 9 IP (nine more, to be exact). The Diamondbacks burned Godley a little down the stretch, and what was a 3.37 ERA in 2017 became a 4.74 ERA in 2018. He allowed more walks and amassed fewer strikeouts (his K/BB ratio dropped from 3.11 to 2.28).

On the other hand, Jameson Taillon averaged 17 fewer pitches per 9 IP. That allowed him to lower his load over the long run. He threw a total of 2960 pitches, slotting behind 27 other pitchers during the 2018 season. As you may have guessed, his 2017 ERA of 4.44 improved to 3.20 in 2018, he maintained his K/9 ratio exactly the same and walked almost one fewer batter per nine IP. Load management seems to matter.

 

Identifying Potential Burnouts - Time To Find Our Candidates

Enough theory, and enough examples from the good old times. It's time to cut to the important thing, the current season.

To account for the season being still uncompleted and midway down the road, I'll use pro-rated stats to 30 G, which align with what we could expect in terms of games started by an ace nowadays. I will use those values also for the 2018 translation, so both seasons can be compared on the same terms.

Here are the pitchers that, at the current pace, would finish the season with 15 or more IP/30G than last season had they played exactly 30 games in both years:

Name 2018 IP/30G 2019 IP/30G Difference Increase Pct.
Lance Lynn 154 192 38 24.9%
Wade Miley 147 172 25 17.1%
Mike Minor 168 191 23 13.7%
Joey Lucchesi 150 167 17 11.1%
Sonny Gray 147 163 16 11.0%
Tyler Mahle 146 161 15 10.4%
Marcus Stroman 161 177 16 10.2%
Lucas Giolito 162 177 15 9.5%
Matthew Boyd 165 180 15 9.2%

Our old friend Shane Bieber barely missed the cut with a difference of 14 IP/30G between 2018 and 2019, as he was clearly surpassed by others, namely Lance Lynn (38), and not only in the pure count but also in the Increase Percentage.

As we already know, that is not half the truth, though, as we must account for thrown balls instead of innings. So here, instead of IP/30G deltas (the difference between one year and the next one), I have listed the pitchers with the highest deltas in terms of pitches thrown per 30G (min. Difference of 100):

Pitcher 2018 Pitches/30G 2019 Pitches/30G Difference Increase Pct.
Mike Minor 2734 3100 365 13.4%
Lance Lynn 2918 3217 299 10.2%
Luis Castillo 2688 2925 237 8.8%
Shane Bieber 2721 2954 233 8.6%
Sonny Gray 2523 2734 212 8.4%
Trevor Bauer 3113 3356 243 7.8%
Hyun-Jin Ryu 2596 2794 198 7.6%
Matthew Boyd 2768 2967 200 7.2%
Marcus Stroman 2695 2886 190 7.1%
Joey Lucchesi 2490 2648 158 6.3%
Chris Sale 2806 2977 171 6.1%
Jake Arrieta 2671 2821 150 5.6%
Charlie Morton 2688 2824 136 5.1%
Brad Keller 2828 2969 141 5.0%
Patrick Corbin 2856 2996 140 4.9%
Marco Gonzales 2652 2781 128 4.8%
Mike Leake 2708 2832 125 4.6%
Clayton Kershaw 2728 2852 124 4.5%
Noah Syndergaard 2894 3026 131 4.5%
Ivan Nova 2616 2734 118 4.5%
Julio Teheran 2712 2829 118 4.3%
Jon Gray 2710 2827 117 4.3%
Stephen Strasburg 2947 3063 116 3.9%
Jacob deGrom 3011 3120 109 3.6%
Eduardo Rodriguez 2889 2993 104 3.6%

Completely different story. These truly are the pitchers in danger of burning out down the road. These are the ones who are throwing more pitches per game than they did in 2018, by far. While it doesn't mean they are the ones throwing the most pitches overall (just look at the difference in projected pitches for Trevor Bauer and Sonny Gray, for example), it shows who is throwing way over his standards and what he did last season.

Probably nobody would argue Lynn, Minor, and Bieber are aces well worth allowing an increase of their load given the potential return. But they could be slowly entering dangerous territory if they keep their current pace. And the same goes for quite some more starters.

You can take the data as you please, but to me, there is the main takeaway to extract from it and two solutions to at least try to solve it. If indeed performance decays with a higher number of pitches thrown (by one's standards and average, again, not compared to the rest of the league), then every single one of those pitches is to a certain extent risking their production level during the final weeks of the season. To solve this issue, either they "improve" their pitching (by removing batters earlier with fewer throws) or have their teams pull them off the games earlier.

Of course, both things are easier said than done. One can't just flip the switch and become a batter-killer overnight. No one will ever remove hitters on a single-pitch basis. It's nonsensical. And second, we all know most aces want the spotlight and to be on the mound for as long as possible, which could make difficult the game-time side of the equation. Not many pitchers will auto impose a pitch limit on themselves, nor will their teams be willing to dramatically reduce the number if they feel like they're getting the most out of them when they're out there in the field.

As for you owners out there, it'd be crazy to drop say, Luis Castillo, because he's on his way to throw more pitches than he did last season. Yes, there is the chance he burns out and ends with a steep decline in production, or that his team starts cutting playing time to maintain his performance at a high level.

At the end of the day, aces gonna ace, but keep an eye on those names just in case.

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Junior Caminero

Day-to-Day With Back Tightness
Will Smith

Won't Return When First Eligible
Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
CFB

Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP