X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

When and How Do You Target Sleepers on Draft Day?

Fantasy baseball managers always target sleepers on draft day, but when and how should you do it? Chris O'Reilly gives his strategic analysis on how to smartly get those undervalued players without taking on too much risk.

If you're the type of fantasy baseball enthusiast who enjoys the preparation as much as the draft itself, chances are you've been filing away names as potential under-the-radar breakout candidates. Maybe you've got your eye on a young utility player who is one injury away from regular playing time (not that anyone should be rooting for injuries). Maybe you're intrigued by that underrated hitter who changed teams in the winter and figures to put up better numbers in his new lineup. Maybe you noticed a trend in one team's bullpen use last season that indicates their setup man could take over ninth-inning duties this year.

Additionally, if you've done this kind of homework leading up to your draft, you know the three hypothetical players above all fall into the category of "sleeper." We all have that secret list of rankings or tiers we don't want anyone else to catch a glimpse of on draft day; the players for whom we believe ourselves to have significantly higher expectations than our league mates. The only question we need to ask ourselves regarding our sleepers is not if we are going to nab these guys up, but when?

Allow me to help with that. For the purposes of this article, we will outline snake-draft sleeper strategies for 12-team redraft leagues with 25-man rosters comprised of both AL and NL players, using ADP information from NFBC.  Note: Every draft is going to have different twists and turns, so the players and draft-slot scenarios we are about to discuss should not be interpreted as concrete examples of what to expect at any given point in a draft.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Don't Go Rogue Early

First and foremost, we never want to look back on the first few rounds of our draft and see unknown quantities on our roster. We should spend, at minimum, the first three rounds targeting players whose floors are higher than the average player's ceiling.

For instance, let's say we have the eighth pick in a 12-team league. We could theoretically be looking at Ronald Acuna, Aaron Judge and Kris Bryant as our first three picks. We've obviously elected to take our chances on mid-tier pitching in this scenario, but we come away with three hitters who can reasonably be expected to meet or exceed 30/100/100 thresholds. Barring injury troubles, we feel very comfortable with our offense after three rounds.

Regardless of whether our first three rounds yield elite quality in hitting, pitching or both, we should be able to feel at ease about the players we've chosen without any second-guessing. Additionally, depending on what we may have sacrificed by going heavy on pitching or hitting, it's my contention that we should continue to target high-floor players all the way through Round Six.

 

How Has the Draft Unfolded?

Depending on the format of your draft, the early rounds can pass by in a whirlwind and leave you with little time to evaluate your roster (or anyone else's). That said, it's important to at least try to take stock of how the draft is unfolding. The seventh round is a good place to start, as the talent pool starts to thin slightly around the 70-85 ADP range.

I believe it was the legendary John Steinbeck who once wrote, "The best-laid plans of mice and fantasy baseball managers often go awry." Maybe the first quarter of our draft has gone exactly as we'd hoped, or maybe, despite all our preparation, our league mates keep plucking away our targeted players right before we have a chance to take them and we're scrambling just to piece each round together.

In either case, we're going to find ourselves facing a decision. If we're satisfied with our draft after six rounds, we can choose to stay the course. On the other hand, we may feel we have the luxury to start taking chances on somewhat risky, high-upside players. If the draft has spiraled wildly out of control, however, we may feel forced to take chances on those players.

Here is where we should begin to take stock of our mid-round sleepers; players we may have to reach for in order to land, but more importantly are comfortable doing so.

 

Luxury or Sacrifice?

Here is an illustration of a potential mid-round crossroads we might face.

Imagine we're drafting out of the 12th slot, meaning we'd have back-to-back selections in the seventh and eighth rounds. We scoop up Mitch Haniger (ADP 89), but we're not particularly enamored with the next few pitching options. Moreover, we're already happy enough with our home run projections that Nicholas Castellanos (ADP 88) and Scooter Gennett (ADP 90) aren't on our radar. So we scroll down and see Nationals prospect Victor Robles (ADP 101) sitting there for the taking. It's nearly 20 selections "too early," but there's a high likelihood he'll be gone by the time we pick again at 108, so we reach for him on account of his stolen base upside and his potential to earn a spot near the top of a dangerous Nationals lineup.

Now, as we come to this decision, we should be asking ourselves a question: Is this a "luxury reach" or a "sacrifice reach"? It's a luxury reach if we have padded our roster with as many multi-category players as possible in the first six rounds, and can thus afford to roll the dice on an unknown quantity with a high ceiling. It's a sacrifice reach if we feel we've been backed into a corner, and are thus "sacrificing" some elements of our roster with the intent of gaining a non-guaranteed advantage in another. In the example above, we're passing up the relatively predictable production of Gennett and Castellanos in favor of Robles, who could just as easily be this year's Lewis Brinson.

The reason it's important to differentiate between the two is that we don't want to find ourselves consistently sacrificing just for upside. A few sacrifice reaches here and there are fine in the middle rounds, but too many in a row could leave us with a bunch of players who may excel in one or two categories while providing little to nothing in the rest.

 

Anything Goes After Round 18 (Pick 216)

By the time we've made our 18th selection, we should have a pretty good idea who our go-to guys are at most positions. We should have a solid mix of hitters, starting pitchers, and even if we didn't spend big on saves, we should have rostered at least a couple of relievers by this point. With our final seven picks we can identify and address perceived weaknesses at certain positions by drafting for depth, but we can also truly start to throw caution to the wind as we try to round up all of our coveted late-round sleepers.

In keeping with the theme of this article, here are a few examples:

Atlanta's Johan Camargo is currently sitting at ADP 329. In a 12-team league with 25-man rosters, that means he's largely going undrafted. This is, of course, due to the fact that Josh Donaldson now occupies his position of third base. That said, Camargo has seen time at shortstop in the past, and the Braves plan to use him in something of an everyday utility role in 2019. With Donaldson coming off an injury-plagued 2018 season and Dansby Swanson having struggled mightily at the plate in his young career, Camargo isn't very far removed from regular playing time. He's well worth a flier in Rounds 19-25 considering his solid numbers from last year.

Or maybe we find ourselves in search of some high-upside starting pitching. We see promising Oakland prospect Jesus Luzardo (ADP 234) and Reynaldo Lopez (ADP 260) of the White Sox are still on the board. Considering we already have a solid stable of starters, neither one of these guys is going to torpedo our season this late in the draft. Luzardo in particular actually has the potential to significantly bolster our team if he gets enough innings.

This is also where there is next to no risk in nabbing up relatively anonymous players who still figure to provide value in one way or another. Cleveland's Jake Bauers (ADP 230) could wind up hitting cleanup behind a couple of All-Stars; Minnesota's C.J. Cron (ADP 253) hit 30 home runs last year and joins an improved Twins offense in 2019: Miami's Brian Anderson (ADP 277) scored 87 runs in 2018; Detroit's Niko Goodrum (ADP 288) hit 16 home runs in 131 games last year and can play multiple positions. None of these players would be the "safest" pick available to us, even in the home stretch of our draft, but we don't stand to lose anything if we take them.

These are all just examples pulled from a collection of ADP results, and the specific names are not meant to be the big takeaway here. The point is that unless we've completely blundered our way through the first 75 percent of our draft, we're not squandering our team's potential by shooting for the moon in the final rounds. Even if none of our final seven picks pan out, we can replace them quite easily with serviceable players via the waiver wire.

It is said that you can't win your league on draft day, but you can lose it on draft day. I'd like to expand on that: You can't lose your league in the final rounds of your draft, but you can win it there if you're willing to be bold.

I'm also just one person in a global community of fantasy baseball managers. You might have a different philosophy than I do. Maybe you think the seventh round is too early to consider rolling the dice, or maybe you prefer to seek out your sleepers even earlier than that. The best way to evaluate what works for you is by participating in (and staying for the duration of) mock drafts. In doing so, you'll be able to determine roughly where your sleepers need to be taken. After all, we all have that secret list, and yours might be totally different than that of your league mates.

More 2019 Fantasy Draft Strategy




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Houston Rockets

Jock Landale Waived by Rockets
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Considering Returning to Europe
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Jabari Walker

Signs Two-Way Deal With Sixers
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Byron Young

Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
Trevor Penning

Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
Jonathan Kuminga

Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner, Magic Agree to One-Year Deal
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
T.J. Watt

Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
George Springer

Blasts Two Homers, Drives in Four
James Wood

Goes Yard in Five-Hit Night
Bradley Beal

Suns Discussing Potential Buyout
Los Angeles Lakers

Jaxson Hayes Staying with the Lakers
NBA

Damian Lillard "Open" to Signing With a Team This Offseason
Max Muncy

Out at Least Six Weeks
Clarke Schmidt

Leaves Start with Forearm Tightness
Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
Max Muncy

Out of Thursday's Lineup
James Wood

Joining Home Run Derby
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
Max Scherzer

Cleared to Start on Saturday
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Kodai Senga

Could be "in Play" to Return Before All-Star Break
Ha-Seong Kim

Rays Reinstate Ha-Seong Kim From Injured List
Christian Moore

Placed on Injured List With Thumb Sprain
Luis L. Ortiz

the Subject of Gambling Investigation
Jordan Lawlar

to Miss Multiple Weeks With Hamstring Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Receives Encouraging News on his Hand
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Divine Deablo

Could be the Quarterback of the Defense
Isaiah Rodgers

a Likely Starter for the Vikings
Jacob Monk

Sees Plenty of Work With Starters
Avonte Maddox

has Impressed Dan Campbell
Boston Celtics

Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
Chicago Bears

Ruben Hyppolite Shows Notable Improvement
Sandro Mamukelashvili

Heading to Toronto
Daron Payne

Commanders Coaches Impressed With Daron Payne
Danny Gray

Makes Impression During Offseason Workouts
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
Dane Belton

Should Have a Role in 2025
Kaiir Elam

Flashes During Offseason Workouts
Dylan Harper

Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Ryan McLeod

Inks Four-Year Extension with Sabres
NAS

Predators Bring in Nick Perbix on Two-Year Deal
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
LA

Cody Ceci Moves to Los Angeles
Charlotte Hornets

Spencer Dinwiddie Lands With Charlotte
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
Milwaukee Bucks

Taurean Prince Staying in Milwaukee
Jeff Green

Signs One-Year Deal to Remain in Houston
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF