RADIO
Hello PGA DFS family! Lucas Glover emerged from a host of contenders to capture the John Deere Classic title Sunday afternoon. It was the veteran's first PGA Tour victory in nearly a decade and demonstrates the fact that elite ball striking has a very long shelf life in professional golf.
We won't waste anymore time on the John Deere Classic, as we're faced with an event - and a field - this week that's its polar opposite in basically every way...the Open Championship!
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
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2021 Open Championship Overview
I don't know about you guys, but it is hard for me to believe that the year's final major championship is upon us. Since shuffling the PGA Championship on the schedule a few years ago, golf's oldest major, the Open Championship, now also serves as its last on the calendar each year. After missing the 2020 edition of the Open due to COVID, we're set to resume at Royal St. George's, a "proper links" course that's been a staple of the Open rotation since 1894.
As with all major championships, this field is obviously stacked, but I think it's fair to surmise that this championship isn't one that every golfer in the field can truly contend for. Links golf, with all of its unpredictability, presents players - specifically American players - with a very different challenge than what they routinely face on the PGA Tour's perfectly manicured golf courses that are setup to produce birdies. So even though the last Open held at Royal St. George's was in 2011, I think we can still draw a lot of useful information from a player's overall Open record, which is what we'll dive into in this week's HFTC.
Shane Lowry enters this week as the official defending Open champion, though his triumph at Royal Portrush feels like it happened a decade ago. He'll attempt to fend off a tough field of competitors that includes newly-crowned major champion Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka, and a host of others.
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: Royal St. George's
Par 70 - 7,189 Yards, Greens: Bentgrass & Fescue Mix, Architect: Dr. Laidlow Purves
It doesn't get more "old school" than this. Royal St. George's was the host of the first Open Championship to be held on English soil in 1894 and has hosted 14 Opens all told, with the most recent being the 2011 edition that was won by Darren Clarke. Royal St. George's is what our friend across the pond refer to as a "proper links" course. It's positioning on the coast of the English Channel makes the elements its biggest natural defense. In addition to the weather, the layout is protected by deep bunkers, huge sand dunes, and firm, uneven grounds that can punish even good golf shots. It's basically the textbook course that comes to mind when you think of "Open Championship conditions".
I suppose trying to guess the weather in England is always a fool's errand and that's especially the case as I write this not quite a week out from the Open. However, the weather conditions will play a large part in how this golf course plays. Royal St. George's has historically been very tough, with Darren Clarke winning in 2011 with a score of just five-under par, but Greg Norman's winning score of 13-under here in 1993 tells us that scoring is possible in calm conditions. That's what is currently expected for this year's Open, as forecasts are predicting relatively minimal amounts of rain and wind throughout the tournament. If the weather turns out to be as benign as predicted - a truly big if - I would expect to see a winning score closer to Norman's than Clarke's, with more of the field being brought into play than we might normally see at an Open.
As for what skills we should target for DFS purposes? Strokes Gained: Open Championship Experience? Yeah, I know that's not a stat, but I do believe it will be important, as will Driving Distance, Overall Ball Striking, and SG: Approach.
For an in-depth breakdown of this week's course, check out RotoBaller's PGA Premium Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett!
Recent Open Champions
- 2020: Cancelled due to COVID
- 2019: Shane Lowry (-15)
- 2018: Francesco Molinari (-8)
- 2017: Jordan Spieth (-12)
- 2016: Henrik Stenson (-20)
The Horse
Jordan Spieth
Notable Open Championship History: T20 (2019), T9 ('18), Win ('17), T4 ('15)
DraftKings Price: $9,700 FanDuel Price: $11,600
I think this year's 'Spieth Mania' peaked around the Masters, and while the Texan has been relatively quiet since falling just short with a T3 at Augusta National, this week's Open presents him with a terrific chance to make some noise by winning his fourth major championship.
We all know Jordan Spieth's record at the Masters is phenomenal, but his history in the Open is almost as impressive, especially when we consider the rotating venue aspect of the event. Seven career starts, seven made cuts. A dramatic win in the 2017 Open at Royal Birkdale. Narrowly missing a playoff at St. Andrews in 2015. A career Open scoring average of 70.39, the best of any player in the field with a minimum of five starts in the event.
Spieth has proven himself to be a smart bet in the Open even when he's in scuffling form. That's not the case this year. Something clicked for him back in February at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, and since making an electric top-five run in that event, he's been - for lack of a better word - perfect statistically, gaining strokes T2G in each of his last 12 starts. The most drastically improved facet of his game has been the irons, as he's gained strokes on Approach in 11 of his last 12 starts and ranks fifth in this Open field in SG: App over the last 36 rounds. Spieth also grades out first in this week's field in SG: Total both over the last 36 rounds and in the Open Championship since 2015.
The Ponies
Brooks Koepka
Notable Open History: T4 ('19), T6 ('17), T10 ('15)
DraftKings Price: $10,700 FanDuel Price: $11,800
After struggling with injuries throughout 2020 and into 2021, Brooks Koepka has reminded everyone just how good he is in golf's biggest events over the past couple of months. Koepka has posted top-five finishes in each of the last two majors with a runner-up at the PGA and a T4 at the U.S. Open.
While none of his four major championship wins have been in the Open, Brooksy has been solid nonetheless in golf's oldest event. Since missing the cut in his Open debut in 2013, he's ran off five consecutive made cuts with a pair of top-10s and a T4 in the most recent Open at Portrush.
Koepka is frequently - and wrongly - labeled a "bomber". While he does have prodigious length off the tee - and that will be helpful this week - he's by no means a mindless bomb and gouger. No, he actually plays a very controlled, almost boring, style of golf that's helped him to contend in so many major championships. We must also remember that he came up through the Challenge Tour ranks in Europe, which helped him to develop a unique ability to handle links golf. He has been razor-sharp with his irons of late and ranks 10th in this field in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds. His length off the tee, precise iron play, links experience, and ability to remain patient mentally will all be huge assets on this week's Royal St. George's layout.
Louis Oosthuizen
Notable Open History: T20 ('19), T28 ('18), T2 ('15), T54 ('11), Win ('10)
DraftKings Price: $9,300 FanDuel Price: $11,100
If you just put Louis Oosthuizen on 'Auto Play' in majors this year you'd be doing pretty, pretty, pretty good. Unfortunately, both DraftKings and FanDuel have noticed the South African's performances in majors and have now raised his DFS prices to where they probably should've been all along. So we're now faced with a decision on Louis rather than the set-it-and-forget situation we've had with him in majors throughout 2021.
As a former Open champion (2010) and runner-up ('15), Oosty has obviously played well in this event. However, his Open record is also dotted with missed cuts - a fact that might speak more to the overall volatility of this event rather than Louis' ability - but perhaps the most notable result on his Open resume is a forgettable T54. Why is that noteworthy? Because it came on this Royal St. George's layout, which makes Oosty one of the few players in this week's field that's actually experienced the course in Open Championship conditions.
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Adam Scott
Notable Open History: T10 ('15), T5 ('14), T3 ('13), 2nd ('12), T25 ('11)
DraftKings Price: $8,100 FanDuel Price: $9,600
Some might argue that Adam Scott's time to win the Open Championship has already come and gone. However, we've historically seen older and experienced players routinely contend in the Open and - when we look at Royal St. George's specifically - a then-42-year-old Darren Clarke captured the Claret Jug the last time the event was held on this course in 2011. Despite being 40, Adam Scott is by no means a relic, as he's still actively playing - and competitive - on the PGA Tour.
The Aussie's ball striking hasn't been up to his normal lofty standards this year, but Scott nevertheless heads to England on the heels of three consecutive made cuts - with a pair of top-16s among those - in America. In addition to that momentum he possesses a wealth of Open experience that's led him to three top-fives and two top-10s over 18 career starts in golf's oldest championship. Scotty also has some Royal St. George's experience, as he notched a T25 here in 2011. Though he hasn't been as statistically impressive in 2021 as he has been in the past, to a certain extent we can toss stats out the window in the Open.
Branden Grace
Notable Course History: T6 ('17), Made cut in 8/9 career starts
DraftKings Price: $7,200 FanDuel Price: $8,800
Once a major-championship staple, Branden Grace's game fell off a cliff in 2019. The South African failed to log a top-50 finish in a major over both 2019 and 2020. However, Grace has looked rejuvenated in 2021, perhaps in part due to a renewed commitment to the game after losing his father to COVID earlier in the year. He scored a win at the Puerto Rico Open, as well as very strong finishes in the Memorial (T4) and the U.S. Open (T7) in his most recent outings stateside.
Grace's Open record could best be described as sturdy rather than brilliant. He's made the cut in eight of his nine career starts with his lone top-10 coming on the strength of a record-setting 62 at Royal Birkdale in 2017. In addition to his consistency in the Open, Grace's low ball flight has allowed him to play well in windy conditions and on links-style layouts, as a win at the RBC Heritage and a pair of victories at the Dunhill Links illustrate. Having gained an average of 6.4 strokes total over his last five tournaments, the South African brings a unique blend of trending form and links experience to the table at affordable DFS price tags.
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