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Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Sunday, July 18, 2023. Use Dan Palyo's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bet recommendations to win money on sports books.
Tuesdays bring us full MLB slates and having 15 games to choose from for our player props allows us to be a little more discriminating with our picks. I crunched the numbers and built the projections in order to bring you my favorite bets for tonight's games with strikeout props (as you probably know by now) being my forte!
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Tuesday, July 18, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS. Good luck today and let's cash some bets!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Tarik Skubal OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-110 DraftKings)
Skubal has been outstanding this season in his first two appearances this season after coming off arm surgery last year. He's pitched just four innings in each of those starts but racked up 11 strikeouts while walking just two and allowing just two hits. It's a small sample size, but a 39% K% and a 13.2% SwStr% are very good signs early on.
Tarik Skubal has really impressed in his first two starts back.
8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB (7.1%), 11 K (39.3%)
Velocity is up.
- FF: 96.0 (94.1 in 2022)
- FS: 96.7 (94.8 in 2022)CH is still dominant (.000 BAA, 50% Whiff)
Good dynasty buy right now.#FantasyBaseball #RepDetroit pic.twitter.com/6zY44LKoiG
— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) July 11, 2023
The real concern here is pitch count, otherwise, we probably wouldn't see Skubal's number this low. He has only thrown 58 and 63 pitches in those starts. With an extra week of rest, hopefully, the Tigers allow him to stretch out to 75 pitches today. He has a great matchup against a Royals team that has struck out 27% of the time against LHP over the last month.
Logan Allen OVER 4.5 strikeouts (+100 DraftKings)
One of the only teams striking out more than the Royals against lefties lately has been the Pirates. Their 29.8% K rate against LHP over the last month leads the league and their lineup now has 3-4 rookies in it on a nightly basis these days as they have gone with a full youth movement.
In Allen's last three outings, he has run up big pitch counts and not pitched into the fifth inning in any of them. However, the strikeouts have still been there on a per-inning basis. What we need from him here is a little more efficiency and I think he clears five strikeouts easily. This is even a situation where I might ladder him up like 7 Ks tonight.
Bailey Ober OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-130 DraftKings)
It's been a breakout year for Ober in 2023 as he's quickly become a very reliable option for the Twins. He has a 2.61 ERA and 0.98 WHIP through the first half of the year and some really solid strikeout numbers (24.6% K%, 12.5% SwStr%).
Bailey Ober, Filthy Changeups. 👌👌
7th and 8th Ks. pic.twitter.com/vouw2lvAzR
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 1, 2023
Sonny Gray left us on the hook last night with just five strikeouts, but Ober has been in better form and frankly has better raw stuff than Gray. He has 6+ strikeouts in four of his last six starts and I like his chances of getting there tonight against this strikeout-prone Seattle lineup.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
CJ Abrams OVER 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-150 DraftKings)
I am not sure there has been an easier play in DFS or a better bet over the last 2-3 weeks than Abrams. The youngster is finally starting to look like the potential star that he was projected to be when he came up as a prospect with the Padres. He's slid into the leadoff spot for the Nats and is producing in a big way. Over the last month, he has a .449 wOBA against RHP with only 14% K rate. He has hit this prop in six straight games and matches up with a pretty pedestrian pitcher here in Taillon - a guy with bad splits vs. LHH, too. Abrams has swiped six bases in his last seven games, too, so a stolen base bet (+250 on DK for one steal) isn't a bad idea here, either.
Adley Rutschman OVER 1.5 total bases (+115 DraftKings)
Rutschman certainly put on a show at the HR Derby and has come out of the break hot, collecting a hit in all four games and extra-base hits in three of those four. He homered last night and faces the Dodgers worst starter tonight in Michael Grove. I love the Baltimore lefties here again tonight as Grove has been terrible against LHH (.439 wOBA, .241 ISO allowed).
BONUS BET: Jake Fraley OVER 1.5 total bases (+130 DraftKings)
Fraley is a bit of a boom/bust hitter, but he's at home in a HR-friendly park and facing a very hittable DeSclafani. Disco is throwing his slider over 40% of the time to lefties and Fraley is the one Reds' hitter who absolutely tees off on that pitch. We are getting some great odds here, too.
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