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I hope you are enjoying a lovely Labor Day weekend as the launch of the college football season has taken center stage. This week, we are about to get NFL football back. While a good chunk of my attention shifts to football season, I will still be betting on MLB player props through the playoffs! I had a really hot week of picking strikeout props this week and only just started to cool down this weekend a bit. But I have a few spots that I love for bets today. Let's see if we can both make some money wagering on MLB props.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Sunday, September 3, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Tarik Skubal OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-135 DraftKings)
These props are absolutely in order of how much I like them today and I am considering using my 50% boost on DraftKings on Tarik Skubal to get him to plus money.
This matchup is one that we have to target today as the White Sox have been the gift that keeps giving to left-handed starters lately. They now lead all of MLB with a 28.7% K% to LHP over the last month with just a 5.3% BB%. I was all over Skubal's rotation-mate Eduardo Rodriguez in the same spot on Friday and he came through with seven strikeouts over 6.2 solid innings.
Skubal comes into today in great form, having hit the over on 5.5 strikeouts in three straight, piling up 25 strikeouts over his last 18 innings. This is another matchup he could crush and remember that when teams load up on RHH, it actually plays into his strength as he has a 33% K% against righties this season.
Seth Lugo OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-120 DraftKings)
Here's an unlikely K prop hero this season, right? Gone are the days that we get him at 4.5 strikeouts. For much of the first half we did and Seth Lugo was regularly going over those for us. We get Lugo at 5.5 today, but at just -120 to go over. Those are pretty good odds when you consider how good Lugo has been.
The veteran righty has shown that he can dominate good matchups. While he's only gone over 5.5 strikeouts in two of his last five starts, I am willing to cut him some slack on those misses against the Dodgers, D-Backs, and Marlins. The Giants are whiffing at a 24.5% rate against righties, the eighth-most of any MLB team over the last month. Lugo has had some big-time strikeout games against weaker lineups (nine vs. COL, eight vs. PIT, seven vs. DET) and he's fresh off a strong six-strikeout outing against a pretty good Cardinals lineup, too.
It looks like he's added a sweeper over the last several starts and he's getting some nice swings and misses on that pitch. Hopefully, that helps him with righties as he's actually been more effective at striking out lefties this season (25% K% vs. 21% K%). He's a gritty veteran who has made the most of his chance to start this season. While I don't really play narratives or hunches, I just love the way he goes after guys and wants to keep targeting the Giants with decent strikeout arms.
Walks Parlay: George Kirby AND Chris Sale UNDER 1.5 walks (+114 DraftKings)
Happy Kirby Day! Kirby still hasn't walked anyone in a month and yet his walk number is set at 1.5 (but obviously far too juiced to bet straight up). So today I am pairing him with Chris Sale, who gets the Royals -- a team that has been notoriously impatient at the plate this season. While the Royals can definitely hit lefties (just ask James Paxton), they are walking only around 5% of the time. Sale also hasn't pitched into the sixth inning in six straight starts.
Bonus Prop: Kevin Gausman OVER 7.5 strikeouts (half unit at +110 DraftKings)
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Aaron Judge OVER 1.5 total bases (-120 DraftKings)
This is where I have to buck the BvP and go with the advanced stats. Aaron Judge is 0-9 against Cristian Javier with two walks and five strikeouts. But when we dig a little deeper, this looks like a perfect matchup for Judge and we could use the argument that his lack of success so far just means that HE'S DUE (for some positive regression).
First off, let's establish that Cristian Javier has been a much worse pitcher this season than last. His strikeout numbers have dropped in a big way, his walks are up, and he still remains an extreme fly ball pitcher.
Can we also agree that Aaron Judge is every bit as good as he was last year now that he's healthy once again? He's homered in both of the first two games this series and has been the one bright spot for New York during the late-season swoon.
Javier throws basically two pitches to righties -- his four-seam fastball and his slider. He's allowing a massive 43% fly ball rate to RHH with 53% hard contact and a 14.2% barrel rate. Meanwhile, Aaron Judge has an 81% hard-hit rate on fastballs with a 44% FB% and 27.9% barrel rate. He absolutely crushes sliders, too, and can elevate them (55% FB%, 33% barrel rate).
One of the trends I have played going back to the start of last season is Judge against righties who throw four-seamers and sliders. Javier is a prime target and today I think Judge finally gets to him for a long ball. Let's add a quarter unit on Judge to homer at +170 (DK).
Julio Rodriguez OVER 1.5 total bases (-140 DraftKings)
Well, the days of getting Julio Rodriguez at even money for his total bases are long gone. I am okay eating some juice on this bet today with how well Rodriguez matches up with Tylor Megill. The Mets' righty has just a 14% strikeout rate to RHH. Rodriguez has been locked in at the plate, making elite contact.
With a triple last night, J-Rod extended his streak of games with an extra-base hit to five straight and he's now gone over 1.5 TB in 11 of his last 12 games. The Mets bullpen has been lackluster this season, too. Even if he doesn't get it done against Megill, I love his chances of hitting this prop at some point in the game.
Alright, good luck, my friends -- let's cash some bets!
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