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Another day of rain in the Northeast means we won't get a chance to bet on Spencer Strider again as that game just got postponed again. Yesterday our guy Nathan Eovaldi was awesome, striking out 8 in a CGSO against the Yankees, while Reid Detmers was incredibly frustrating to watch and came up one short of his prop despite striking out five hitters in his first two innings! I hope you bet on Gausman, too, as he whiffed 13 Mariners and looks back in peak form.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Sunday, April 30, 2023. All odds listed are on DraftKings unless otherwise specified, but always shop the books for the best bargains! Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games already.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Sonny Gray OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-165 DK)
There's a decent chance this moves to 6.5 by the time this game starts, so get it while you can. Gray has been tremendous this season with an ERA under one and 34 strikeouts in 29 innings. His only real low strikeout game came back against these Royals in his first start of the season when he didn't have his control quite dialed in yet and walked four batters while striking out only one hitter in five innings. He likely had a pitch count that game and I'm not reading too far into it.
The Royals are a team we continue to attack with good strikeout artists as their young lineup has a lot of strikeouts in it. If Sonny keeps attacking the zone and getting in front of hitters, he can use his offspeed stuff to generate those whiffs and put guys away. He's my favorite K prop on the board based on how well he is slinging it and the matchup.
Logan Allen OVER 4.5 strikeouts (+110 DK)
These odds are also moving as I bet Allen at +120 before I started writing this piece this morning. This one is a no-brainer for me, we are getting some great odds from Vegas because Allen is an unproven commodity, but he whiffed 8 Marlins in his MLB debut and was dominating in Triple-A before coming up.
Meet Logan Allen.
The @CleGuardians' No. 8 prospect fans eight over six innings of one-run ball in his Major League debut. pic.twitter.com/aE7UapFMNo
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) April 23, 2023
This is simply a "that's too low of a number for this guy" type situation as Allen's talent is worth investing in here, even in a tougher matchup with Boston than he had in Miami. I wouldn't be surprised if he turns in another solid outing with 6 or more strikeouts so he makes a nice ladder candidate on FanDuel as well.
Nestor Cortes OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-170 DK)
Like Sonny's prop, Nasty Nestor has a lot of juice attached to his today (so parlay them for better odds!). But it's justified as Nestor has pitched very well to start the year and has 6+ strikeouts in each of his last three outings.
I love that he has only a 4% walk rate and that you know he's not going to mess around and put guys on base without making them earn it. He's not afraid to challenge hitters either, even though he doesn't have overpowering velocity. He uses a variety of deliveries and pitches to keep hitters off balance and is so fun to watch. Texas has a few 30% strikeout rate against lefties guys in this lineup (Semien, Jung, Duran) and Nestor can usually pitch deep enough into games to get us there.
If you want a fourth guy at better odds, then consider Drew Rasmussen over 5.5 strikeouts at +110 odds on DK. I think he bounces back today against the White Sox.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Matt Chapman OVER 1.5 total bases (-130 DK)
Taking the low-hanging fruit here and rolling with one of the best hitters in baseball over the first month in Chapman. He's hitting .372 and has been barreling the ball like crazy even making loud outs when he doesn't get a hit. I'm not a BvP truther by any means, but Chapman is 14-37 off Gonazles in his career with six extra-base hits (one HR) and he's been mashing lefties in a big way this season with a .566 wOBA and .346 ISO.
Marco Gonzales has a 19% strikeout rate this year, but he's usually a guy who is closer to 15% and he gives up a lot of contact. Chapman just needs to get something he can hit today and one hard-hit ball finding a gap is all we need to cash this one.
William Contreras OVER 1.5 total bases (+105 DK)
Ironically enough after going after the Brewers with Detmers yesterday, I have some interest in their hitters today against the Angels starter Jose Suarez, who has a 7.74 xFIP, 14% strikeout rate, and 51% fly-ball rate. Of all the Brewers bats, Contreras has the best numbers against lefties so far this season as he's sporting a .450 wOBA and .227 ISO with only an 11% strikeout rate.
That means he's probably making a lot of contact today in his at-bats against Suarez and that there is a high probability of that contact being high quality. He's just a really good hitter and Suarez has been terrible. The platoon splits for both guys make for an incredibly favorable matchup. You have
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