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Brenton Kemp's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 6/15/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, and other baseball bets.
We have a 10-game MLB schedule this Thursday, June 15 evening as we have a mix of afternoon and evening baseball on tap! There's a wealth of value on the board so let's dive in head first and see what's in store!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: MIN (-205)
DET: Matthew Boyd| MIN: Sonny Gray
It's an AL Central rivalry tilt tonight in the Twin Cities as the Minnesota Twins play host to the Detroit Tigers.
A couple of weeks ago, this appeared to be a crucial series on the schedule with the Tigers trailing the Twins by just a few games for first place in the division. However, the Tigers are an ugly 1-11 over their last 12 games and now sit seven games back of first place at 27-39 on the campaign.
Injuries have decimated a suspect roster and the offense has slipped to dead last with a .292 wOBA on the season while they also sit 25th with a .292 wOBA over the last two weeks. For his part, Matthew Boyd enters this one sporting a 5.55 ERA across 12 starts, although his 4.70 FIP and 4.57 SIERA suggest he's been better than his surface ERA might suggest.
The scuffling Tigers offense will be in tough against right-hander Sonny Gray. The veteran sports a 2.25 ERA on the season, although his 3.95 SIERA spells some regression on the horizon. He has yet to surrender more than three earned runs in any of his 13 starts this season while limiting the opposition to two earned runs or fewer in 10 of his 13 outings this season.
While the Tigers' offense has struggled, so has Minnesota's. In fact, the Twins haven't been much better in posting a .305 wOBA over the last two weeks, good for 21st in that time. Remember, they are without Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco at this time as well.
I'll also note the Tigers knocked around Spencer Strider as part of Thursday's doubleheader while they scored a total of 12 runs in that time to break out of a lengthy slump.
I'll look for Gray's regression to kick in tonight while Boyd's ERA should trend toward his SIERA moving forward. Let's grab the Tigers on the run line to at least keep this one close.
Pick: Tigers run line +1.5 (-115, DraftKings sportsbook)
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Washington Nationals vs. Houston Astros
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: HOU: (-190)
MIA: MacKenzie Gore| HOU: Cristian Javier
The Houston Astros once again host the Washington Nationals on Thursday and this one isn't exactly as cut-and-dry as we may have thought it would be at the outset of the season.
The Astros haven't been as dominant as we are used to and the Nationals haven't been as putrid as one may have suspected. In fact, these two offenses are neck and neck at this point in the season. Houston is in a four-team tie for 16th with a .314 wOBA on the season while the Nationals are just a couple of points behind with a .312 wOBA on the campaign. Houston has been better of late but keep in mind their best offensive player in Yordan Alvarez is on the injured list with an oblique injury.
Getting the ball for the Nats is left-hander Mackenzie Gore who has been solid. The 24-year-old sports a 4.04 ERA on the season but also a 3.85 SIERA and a healthy 18.4% K-BB%. He yielded five earned runs his last time out versus a tough Braves offense but that marked just the third time in 13 starts he surrendered more than three earned runs this season.
Toeing the rubber for the home side is right-hander Cristian Javier. The 26-year-old has once again been excellent with a 3.13 ERA on the season while his 3.66 FIP and 4.11 SIERA are solid as well, even if the latter is roughly a full run inferior to this ERA. Javier doesn't miss a ton of bats but boasts excellent control that has led to a rock-solid 18.5% K-BB%. He owns a 2.67 ERA/3.07 FIP along with a 19.3% K-BB% at home versus a 3.51 ERA/4.15 FIP and 17.8% K-BB% on the road this season.
This has the smell of a low-scoring affair. The Nationals have been a bottom-five offense over the last two weeks and Javier thrives at home. The Astros' offense has been better of late but Gore has been rock-solid and the Astros are without their best offensive player.
Sign me up for the under in this one tonight.
Pick: Under 8 total runs (-110, DraftKings sportsbook)
Good luck, folks!
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