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It's Saturday, RotoBallers! I’m excited to be delivering free MLB betting content all season long. I bring a background in betting on MLB in various capacities, most notably competing in the DraftKings DFS live final last year. I'm looking to build off that momentum and capitalize on this baseball season again, and I'm including you in my process.
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Here I’ll update you on my favorite MLB bets throughout the season, and we'll continue to track how my picks are doing. We've already hit the ground running, going 7-2-1 on my betting picks so far! Now let’s dig into my recommendations for May 13, 2023!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Braves @ Blue Jays
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: TOR -125
ATL: Bryce Elder | TOR: Jose Berrios
We begin north of the border, where the Atlanta Braves take on the Toronto Blue Jays today. Game one of the series featured a true pitching duel with Spencer Strider's 12-strikeout, 1-run performance falling short of Chris Bassitt's complete-game shutout. Game two expects to be a much different story, with these juggernaut offenses poised to exploit a much more vulnerable pitching matchup.
For Atlanta, Bryce Elder gets the nod. On the surface, he's having a dominant season, sporting a 1.74 ERA through his first seven starts. It's an impressive output, to be sure, but his underlying metrics tell us the success is far from sustainable. Elder ranks among the bottom tenth percentile of all pitchers with his 92 MPH average exit velocity and 49.6% hard-hit rate. Further, his .256 xBA and .404 xSLG are similarly mediocre. This all amounts to a 4.30 xERA and illustrates the significant regression headed Elder's way.
Elder will square off against a Blue Jays lineup featuring big-name bats like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Goerge Springer, and Matt Chapman. Altogether, Toronto scores 4.8 runs per game, carrying a strong .746 OPS and 110 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. They are capable of blowing up the scoreboard on any given day, and a matchup against an overperforming pitcher paired with a middling Atlanta bullpen feels like an underrated opportunity for the Blue Jays.
On the flip side, Jose Berrios has worn his struggles on his sleeve over the last two years. He posted a 5.23 ERA over 32 starts during the 2022 campaign and carries a 4.91 ERA through seven outings this season. Berrios has trouble limiting damage -- .487 xSLG, .346 xwOBA, 9.4% barrel rate, .278 xBA -- and that's going to be a problem against the Braves. Atlanta scores 5.2 runs per game behind a stacked lineup featuring Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Sean Murphy, and Austin Riley. Collectively, they own a .749 OPS against right-handed pitching and are more than capable of teeing off on Berrios today.
Either through one team's offensive explosion or both teams, expect the scoring in this game to reach double digits.
Pick: Over 9.5 total runs (+100) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
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O/U: 8 | Moneyline: ARI -170
SF: Anthony DeSclafani | ARI: Zac Gallen
Moving on to the late game, this Giants-Diamondbacks spot is an opportunity. Game one of the series went to the Diamondbacks, and I expect more of the same tonight. The offenses match up evenly, but I'll highlight the discrepancy at pitcher, and that's where the opportunity arises.
Zac Gallen is a bona fide ace at this point. He posted a 2.54 ERA across 31 starts in 2022 and carries a 2.36 ERA through eight outings this season. It's no fluke either, as all the underlying numbers support sustained dominance -- 2.72 xERA, 2.33 xFIP, .227 xwOBA, .341 xSLG, and 3.2% walk rate. Over his past six starts, Gallen has allowed just four total runs across 39 innings pitched. The Giants' offense is no joke, but Gallen is the caliber of pitcher that can shut down any offense.
For the Giants, Anthony DeSclafani takes the hill. He's contributed a strong 2023 campaign thus far, posting a 2.80 ERA through seven starts. The results have been encouraging, but peripheral numbers highlight regression on the way. DeSclafani carries 3.99 xERA, .426 xSLG, .272 xBA, 46.7% hard-hit rate. All said, he's still a decent pitcher, but DeSclafani is not in Gallen's league.
Looking beyond DeSclafani, San Francisco brings an awful bullpen. They carry a 5.70 ERA, the third-worst mark in the majors. The Diamondbacks have bullpen struggles of their own, but their relievers surrender nearly a full run per nine innings less than the Giants. It's another advantage for Arizona, and I expect their 5.1 run-per-game offense to jump on one or several of San Francisco's pitchers.
There's not much to distinguish these two offenses, but there's a clear enough gap with the pitching to feel comfortable about Arizona's chances.
Pick: Diamondbacks -1.5 Run Line (+130) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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