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Dan Palyo's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 4/19/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
I'm probably about to jinx it, but I have been on a mini-heater the last two games with money lines, run lines, and totals. Monday I was 3-0 and last night I finished 3-1 with my only miss being a Baltimore-Washington game that went 8 RUNS under it's total despite Dean Kremer and Josiah Gray being the starting pitchers. Sometimes some weird, fluky stuff just happens on a nightly basis and we move on to the next slate.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Wednesday, April 19, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Tampa Bay @ Cincinnati
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: TBR -230
TBR: Drew Rasmussen | CIN: Levi Stoudt
It's really tough not to just grab the low-hanging fruit here with the Tampa run line. They demolished the Reds 10-0 last night and moved to 14-4 on the season on the run line and 15-3 overall this season. They are simply a freight train right now and continue to steamroll lesser teams. Cincy threw their best pitcher, Nick Lodolo, at them and they still lit him up.
Tonight they'll have to roll with a 25-year-old rookie, Levi Stoudt, who will make his major league debut. Stoudt has only a handful of starts at Triple-A and isn't regarded as much of a prospect. He will have his hands full with the MLB-leading Tampa offense that averages nearly 8 runs per game.
And the Rays get to lean on one of their better pitchers here on the other side, Drew Rasmussen. He labored a bit against Toronto in his last outing, but otherwise, he's looked tremendous and is a guy that a lot of folks in the industry have been high on to have a breakout year. This is easily the most lopsided matchup of the day, so I am okay eating some of the juice on this run line.
Pick: Tampa Bay -1.5 (-140) DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - San Francisco @ Miami
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: MIA -110
SFG: Alex Cobb| MIA: Trevor Rogers
This looks like a pitchers' duel to me today as we get two solid (but not spectacular) pitchers who are facing relatively weak offenses in a good park for pitching. Both guys are getting their opponent on the right side of their splits, too, as the Giants struggle more against lefties and the Marlins have been more vulnerable to RHP.
Cobb isn't a big-time strikeout artist, but he does a great job of getting groundballs by keeping the ball down in the zone and throwing a very effective sinker and splitter combo. Rogers is looking to bounce back this year after a rough season in 2022. He had to face the Mets in his first two starts which was a tough challenge out of the gates, but he looked fantastic in his third outing as he dominated the D-Backs over six innings with 7 strikeouts.
I will be betting the K props on both of these guys today at their current numbers and I like them both to pitch effectively and keep the opposing offenses in check. This total is too high at 8, it should be 7 or 7.5 based on these weak offenses and good pitchers. Miami also continues to be one of the top teams to target for unders as they have gone under their totals 65% of the time (second most in MLB)
Pick: Under 8 runs (-120) DraftKings Sportsbook
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Pittsburgh @ Colorado
O/U: 11 | Moneyline: PIT -125
PIT: Johan Oviedo| COL: Austin Gomber
My Pittsburgh Pirates are 11-7 and going for a sweep of the Rockies in Colorado this afternoon! It's hard to believe it, but the Pirates DO NOT SUCK this year! And sorry Colorado fans, but the Rockies really do. The Pirates have been an average if not slightly above average offense this season while Colorado is near the bottom in most offensive statistics.
The Buccos rested Andrew McCutchen last night, so I expect him back in the lineup against lefty Austin Gomber today. Gomber is a decent pitcher, but very hittable and the Pirates can throw a bunch of righties at him today. The real key to this win for Pittsburgh (if they can pull it off) is the performance of their young starter Johan Oviedo.
Fun Fact: #Pirates Johan Oviedo has the 9th highest CSW% of any qualified pitcher so far in 2023: 31.8%
Other unexpected names inside top 10 as of now:
Logan Webb: 33%
Brady Singer: 32.5% pic.twitter.com/bbTpkbMCWY— Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) April 17, 2023
He really turned some heads in his last start, striking out ten Cardinals over seven innings and allowing just one run on six hits. If Oviedo pitches anything like he did last time, the Pirates have a much bigger advantage than Vegas is accounting for. I like the Bucs to win here and the value is pretty nice here at just -125.
Pick: Pirates ML (-125) DraftKings Sportsbook
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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