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Mark Kieffer's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 4/13/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
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I am Mark and this is my second season writing MLB content on RotoBaller. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Wednesday, April 13, 2022. This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Mark's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
Last night I went 1-2 and am 2-4 overall with the articles, down 0.1 units. I was wrong on Detroit and Miami Moneyline but the OVER 8.5 runs with Saint Louis and Kansas City came through for us as Saint Louis won 6-5 and 11 runs were scored.
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: PHI -115
NYM: Max Scherzer | PHI: Aaron Nola
To start us off today, we see a game that was priced very interestingly, to say the least. For the Mets, Max Scherzer is on the mound. In his first start, Scherzer went six innings, allowed three runs, and struck out 27.3% of batters. Aaron Nola is also making his second start of the season. In his first start, Nola went six innings, allowed four runs, and struck out 30.4% of batters.
To me, there isn't a deep analysis needed here. Scherzer is a better pitcher than Nola, the Phillies also will not have their closer as Corey Knebel is on the COVID list. The slight edge goes here, and I am always willing to bet on Scherzer as an underdog.
Pick: NYM Moneyline (+100), Caesar's Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: MIL -180
MIL: Corbin Burnes| BAL: John Means
Corbin Burnes is a good pitcher, John Means is a good pitcher and this should actually be an exciting game while these two starters are in. Burns is 0-0 with a 5.40 ERA and a 19% strikeout rate. Means is 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA and a 26.3% strikeout rate. These pitchers are not fully stretched out and Burns pitched five innings while Means pitched four innings in their first starts. The bullpens are going to be a large factor in this game. While Milwaukee's bullpen ERA so far is just 1.69 and Baltimore's is 2.22, those are bound to increase, especially for Baltimore in my opinion. I could see the potential for this to be a close, tight game for the first four to five innings, with the bullpens giving up some runs when they take over the game. I like the chances that this game goes over 8 runs even though both starters are quality starters.
The hitting environment should be nice in this game as well. Baltimore will have a high of 85 degrees and by the time the first pitch happens, it will be 79 degrees with the temperature staying in the 70s throughout most of the game.
Pick: OVER 8 Runs (-105), Pointsbet Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: NYY -145
TOR: Jose Berrios| NYY: Gerrit Cole
Both Jose Berrios and Gerrit Cole can look like Cy Young candidates and they can also look like average pitchers as well. Ever since the sticky stuff has been banned, we have seen Cole have starts where he strikes out 15 batters in 7 innings against the Angels (9/1/2021) and we have seen starts where he allows seven earned runs in 5.2 innings to Cleveland (9/19/2021). If you do not bring your best stuff, this Blue Jays lineup will make you pay as 1-7 can hit bombs.
Jose Berrios has a very similar story, except he has always been like this sticky stuff or not. We will see starts where he looks generational and then we will see starts where he allows 5-6 runs in the first three innings of a baseball game. Similar to the Blue Jays lineup, the Yankees lineup is not one where you can afford to make mistakes, as they can make you pay.
The weather environment for this game is nice as well, as it will be in the 60s during most of the game, as opposed to last night when it was colder.
Pick: OVER 8.5 runs (-114), FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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