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Happy Sunday RotoBallers, we're back for another day of MLB Postseason betting picks. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 postseason!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, October 9, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
Playoffs: 3-1 (+1.32 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Padres @ Mets
O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: NYM -136
SD: Joe Musgrove | NYM: Chris Bassitt
We finished yesterday 2-0, and it was quite an awesome day as the Phillies were able to take care of business and advance to the NLDS. That leaves us with just one game today, as the Mets and Padres will close out this series.
The visiting Padres will send Joe Musgrove (10-7, 2.93 ERA) to the mound. Musgrove has had a really good season out in San Diego but did struggle in his one game against the Mets. Back on July 24th, Musgrove allowed four runs in 5.1 innings in Queens. He projects to a 3.47 xFIP and 25.55% hard contact rate tonight.
Conversely, the Mets will be sending Chris Bassitt (15-9, 3.42 ERA) to the mound. Bassitt was one of the best "number three" starters in baseball this season. He made two starts against San Diego this season, and to say it was "up-and-down" is an understatement. In his first start, he allowed seven earned runs across just 3.1 innings of work, and in the second start, he went seven innings allowing just two runs. He projects slightly worse than Musgrove, projecting to a 3.78 xFIP but just a 21.79% hard contact rate.
I mentioned on Friday that data tends to be thrown out the window when playoffs come around. While that's kind of true, my model has been relatively on point through these first two days of the postseason. However, there have been 18 runs scored across two games in this series, and with the least-daunting pitching matchup so far, I think we're getting solid value taking the over 6.5 that FanDuel Sportsbook is giving us.
Pick: Over 6.5 (-120) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you in the Divisional Series!
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