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Marc Hulet identifies four sleeper prospects that could have surprising value in redraft leagues during the 2020 fantasy baseball season.
Recently, Rotoballer launched a list of the Top 50 MLB prospects for the coming year. The top of the list was populated by names such as Gavin Lux, Luis Robert, and Brendan McKay. These players, among others, feature a promising combination of talent and favorable playing time projections to suggest they’ll be the cream-of-the-crop among rookie contributors in redraft leagues in 2020.
But one thing we know about Major League Baseball is that it can be very unpredictable and all the research in the world cannot prepare you for unexpected player developments and breakout performances. But while some players seem to come out of nowhere, other prospects give us glimpses of their potential prior to their breakouts; constantly reading Rotoballer can give you a head start on the competition.
Today, we’re going to look at a handful of players that are not listed among the elite prospects for redraft leagues in 2020 — nor are they among the top dynasty players — but they have the potential to surprise and contribute at a higher-than-expected level in the coming year. You likely won’t be chasing them down on draft day, but you might just find them on your roster by year's end.
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Brent Rooker (1B/OF, MIN)
Rooker’s path to MLB playing time looked better before the Twins went out and paid Josh Donaldson a wheelbarrow full of money to play third base in Minnesota. The signing likely moves incumbent third baseman Miguel Sano to first base — a position that Rooker could have also filled. The Twins also have significant outfield depth with the likes of Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Jake Cave, and Marwin ‘Trash Can’ Gonzalez. Not only that but Rooker has to compete for a call-up with fellow prospect Alex Kirilloff, whom we project to be an above-average contributor when he gets his shot at The Show. But Rooker is a step ahead of Kirilloff in terms of development. The former spent the 2019 season in Triple-A while the latter was in Double-A. Both players missed significant time during the season due to injuries.
The 35th overall selection in the 2017 draft, Rooker has the pedigree, but he’s also a somewhat one-dimensional player because he doesn’t play defense very well and he has modest foot speed. But what he does do is hit the ball really, really hard. He played just 65 games in 2019 but 30 of his 64 hits went for extra bases. We don’t have reliable Statcast data for the minor leagues, but Rooker produced a massive line-drive rate of almost 25% — which followed up on a 26% rate the year before in Double-A. In three pro seasons, his wRC+ has been 124 or better at every minor league level he’s played at. Despite battling injuries, his offense in 2019 was 39% better than the league average. If given everyday playing time, Rooker possesses 25-30 home run potential in the majors, especially with some tweaks to his launch angle to turn more of those line drives into fence-clearing flies.
Now, the bad news. Rooker also swings and misses a lot. He struck out at a rate of almost 35% last year and his career strikeout rate sits around 28%. And while he posted a .281 batting average, he did it with a .417 BABIP. As a result, based on his 2019 results, he's more likely to actually hit .220 than he is to produce another .280 batting average. With that said, his strikeout rate was a reasonable 26% in 2018 with a .316 BABIP -- which is more than realistic given how hard he hits the ball -- and he produced a .254 batting average. Rooker also shows good patience and walked almost 13% last year. So, when all is said and done, it wouldn’t be unrealistic to think he could eventually become a .230-.250 hitter with 25+ home runs and an on-base percentage of .340 or better.
Jared Walsh (1B/OF/RP, LAA)
Jared Walsh comes from a very different place than Brent Rooker above. Walsh was a 39th round draft pick after spending four years at the University of Georgia as a two-way player where he produced modest results both on the mound and at the plate. But then he obliterated minor league pitching and spent most of his time in the field while appearing in just 10 games as a pitcher from 2016-18. He then pitched in 13 games as a reliever in 2019. The new two-way player rules being enforced for 2020 will likely limit Walsh’s value as a pitcher after he appeared in five MLB games in 2019 and allowed just one run in five innings -- but his true value for fantasy baseball is at the plate.
Walsh is a powerful individual. He slugged 29 home runs split between three levels in 2018. Then, when he was introduced to the juiced balls at Triple-A in 2019, he slugged 36 home runs in just 98 games. That helped him achieve an isolated slugging rate of .361 — which was higher than Mike Trout’s .353 at the MLB level. Walsh’s wRC+ was an eye-popping 162. He’s consistently produced offense at a 30-40% higher rate than his peers throughout his pro career. And over the past two years, he’s generated line-drive rates at Triple-A of 27% (47 games) and 24% (98 games).
Walsh strikes out a fair bit but his 25% strikeout rate in 2019 was reasonable considering the tradeoff in the power department. And he also spent a lot of time on base thanks to a 13% walk rate. Like Rooker above, he was lucky on balls in play and produced a .374 BABIP which lets some of the air out of his .325 batting average. But even with those adjustments, he was a very good Triple-A hitter deserving of an opportunity to perhaps challenge Brian Goodwin for a spot in right field (and also spend time at first base).
Joshua Lowe (OF, TB)
The Tampa Bay Rays have a lot of outfield depth. The club may field a 26-player roster with eight players capable of playing out there. The club also already has two players with the surname Lowe (Nate Lowe and Brandon Lowe). So can they find room for Josh Lowe (brother of Nate)? If he continues to build upon his breakout 2019 season, they may have no choice.
Good speed is hard to find. Only 21 players nabbed 20 or more bases in 2019. Of those players, only 12 (60%) produced average-or-better offense based on wRC+. Nine players (43%) provided both power and speed with at least 20 homers and 20 steals. So, speed is hard to find and finding players who can hit for both power and speed is even more difficult, which means you often have to invest two roster spots to address power and speed, except in the rare cases of a Jonathan Villar, Tommy Pham, Starling Marte, or Jose Ramirez. Saving that roster spot on a 20-20 player has additional value.
Lowe’s 2019 season gives us hope that he’s next in line. A former first-round draft pick, this speedy outfielder was raw coming out of high school and it’s taken time for him to translate his immense athleticism to the language of baseball. Lowe strikes out a lot and likely always will (25% in 2019) but he also does a nice job of taking walks. He’s posted walk rates of 10% or higher in three of his four pro seasons. Lowe’s always shown good speed and has stolen at least 18 bases each of the past three years. He topped out with 30 steals in 2019.
The power has been slow to develop despite a strong frame (6-foot-4, 205 pounds). Prior to last season, his career-high in home runs was just eight. But he’s gradually turned himself from more of a ground-ball hitter into an extreme fly-ball hitter. And, in turn, his home-run output increased to 18 in 2019. And when he’s not hitting fly balls, Lowe is stinging line drives (23% in 2019). During the offseason Arizona Fall League, Lowe produced the third-highest exit velocity recorded at 111.2 during one of his home runs (Oh, and he produced a .327/379/.558 in 52 ABs). The other good news is that the power spiked while the young hitter continued to use the entire field (38% pull rate). Once he hits the juiced balls in Triple-A and the Majors, we should witness even more balls clearing the fence giving us a real chance for another 20-20 player.
Drew Rasmussen (SP, MIL)
Rasmussen is a player that has been highly-sought-after since his prep days. But he slid in the 2014 draft when he announced his plans to attend college. Things didn’t go so well from there, although he had an excellent freshman season for Oregon State. Over the next two years, Rasmussen threw in just 14 games due to Tommy John surgery. Nonetheless, the Rays took him 31st overall in the 2017 draft but failed to sign him after seeing post-draft medicals. Rasmussen went back to school for his senior year but then missed the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery for a second time. The Brewers took a flyer on him in the sixth round of the 2018 draft.
Returning to pitching in 2019, Rasmussen made 23 starts (out of 27 appearances) but his innings were kept to a minimum at just 74 1/3 total. Despite not pitching much in three years, Rasmussen struck out 96 batters (30% K-rate) and showed respectable control with 31 walks. He also did a nice job limiting damage from home runs and allowed just four balls to clear the outfield fences. The right-handed hurler has top-shelf stuff with a mid-to-upper-90s fastball, a wipeout slider, and a modest changeup.
The majority of Rasmussen's season (61 innings) was spent in Double-A and his results suggest a return engagement is not necessary. The hard-throwing right-hander will likely be thrown to the wolves (juiced ball) in Triple-A where he’ll receive a significant challenge. If he passes that test, then it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him in the bigs by early summer, either as a reliever or a starter. The Brewers lack depth among the starters but Rasmussen also possesses the kind of stuff (fastball/slider) that could turn him into a right-handed Josh Hader if he commits to relieving on a full-time basis.
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