Finding Tight End Breakouts for Fantasy Football – Cracking the Code for Week 6

October 14, 2022

Robert looks for fantasy football tight end breakouts heading into Week 6 (2022). He uses advanced NFL stats for tight ends to find breakouts and fades.

What better way to define the tight end position than to say that a player who has more special team snaps than tight end snaps is currently the TE3 in half-PPR scoring. That is the landscape fantasy managers are being asked to muddle through at this maddening position and there doesn't seem to be any light at the end of the tunnel unless you have Mark Andrews or Travis Kelce.

Not only that but T.J. Hockenson had 35.9 half-PPR points in Week 4 and followed that epic performance up with a meager 1.1 points in Week 5. This position is downright dreadful. To get ahead of your competition, you need to be looking further than the box score because at tight end, the box score is incredibly flukey and will undoubtedly have you believing something that isn't true.

This week we'll be looking at a few of the tight ends who have a top-12 rostership rate in ESPN leagues to determine just how we should be valuing them moving forward. We'll also be taking a peak at a few tight ends who are most likely on the waiver wire, but have some high rostership rates and of course, we can't complete a tight end round-up without talking about Taysom Hill, so let's get started.

Concerning Tight Ends Inside Top-10 Rostership Rates

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

Do fantasy managers need to be concerned about Kyle Pitts? In a word... yes. It has been a very concerning start to the season for the hyped-up sophomore. After crossing 1,000 yards as a rookie, the bar was set insanely high. When that happens, fantasy managers should avoid said player at cost, but if anyone could live up to the hype, it seemed like it could be Kyle Pitts. Enter, Arthur Smith

Arthur Smith hates Kyle Pitts and your fantasy team.

Route participation this season:

Week 1: 72%
Week 2: 91%
Week 3: 68%
Week 4: 60%

Historically: Great = 80%-plus; Decent = 70%; Poor = 60% and below

Still had a 24% target share. The only viable move is to hold and pray.

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) October 2, 2022

While Pitts missed Week 5, his route participation in Weeks 3 and 4 wasn't just bad, it was downright scary. It almost seems criminal to have such a gifted player run a route on just 68% of their team's pass plays, but that's exactly what happened in Week 3. Even in Week 1, 72% is far too low for a player like Pitts.

However, it isn't just his route participation that is suffering. Of the four weeks he's played, he has just one game (!!!) where he played more than 80% of the team's snaps. He has two contests where he played fewer than 70%. Until Pitts starts getting more opportunities, his fantasy production is going to lag behind. On a positive note, his peripherals still look very strong.

Despite Arthur Smith seemingly trying to hold Pitts down, you simply can't box in a talent as unique and spectacular as Pitts. In Week 1, he posted a 25% target per route run rate. In Week 3, that number jumped up to 47% and in Week 4, it was at 33%. These are elite numbers, folks and what it tells us is that as long as Pitts starts getting more opportunities, the fantasy points are going to follow. The problem with that is simple...

Updated pass rate over expectation leaders through Week 5 with MNF included: https://t.co/a6enkAMAQP pic.twitter.com/t5r0aGm3qe

— Sam Hoppen (@SamHoppen) October 11, 2022

The Falcons simply are not passing the ball. They're averaging the second-fewest attempts in the league at just 24.6. Unless the Falcons modernize their offense a little bit, Pitts' fantasy production will continue to be very boom or bust. There's simply not enough volume on a weekly basis. However, that doesn't mean it will continue being as bad as it's been.

For starters, Pitts is an insanely talented player, and eventually, insanely talented players start producing like insanely talented players. At least to some degree. It's become clear through five weeks, the offensive system is going to hold Pitts back from reaching his ceiling. Still, his peripherals do look like someone fantasy managers shouldn't be completely panicking about.

Pitts has posted target shares of 21.9%, 11.5%, 42.1%, and 22.2% and for the season his target share sits at a very healthy, 23.2%. He's averaging 86.5 air yards per game, which is the second-highest among all tight ends. His average depth of target is 15.7 yards, which is the highest among tight ends with at least 10 yards. While that number indicates the Falcons are using Pitts down the field – which is great – the sheer depth of his targets is creating a lot of volatility for them. Ideally, that number would come down into that 12–13 range where we're still getting downfield looks, but with a higher rate of success.

He also currently has a 1.74-yard per route run average, which ranks seventh among tight ends with at least 10 targets. As you can see, it's not like Pitts forgot how to play football. His efficiency metrics are still very much elite, but for his fantasy production to align with that, he needs more volume.

Kyle Pitts

1st in average target depth (15.9)
4th in targets per route run (27.8%)

25th in routes run per game (19)

Pain.

— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) October 12, 2022

A player such as Pitts is eventually going to command more volume and we can reasonably assume eventually, at least somewhat rational coaching reigns supreme and he's given more routes per game. Even if that happens, however, he's very unlikely to reach the heights that he was drafted at. It's a sad state of affairs, but unfortunately, the patheticness of the tight end position leaves fantasy managers with very few choices.

While Pitts' incredibly low floor right now is no fun, especially for a second or third-round pick, the reality is the low is insanely low for almost every tight end, but few have his upside, so you're forced to lock him into your starting lineup and riding the storm out.

50% – 80% Rostership Club

Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys

Dalton Schultz missed all of Week 3's contest and almost the entire Week 5 game against the Rams. Due to that, we'll be looking only at Weeks, 1, 2, and 4. During that time, he finished as the TE9, TE30, and TE59. Just an absolutely brutal start to the season for a player many thought could have a true breakout campaign. Is it as bad as it looks though?

The answer is no, not really. During those three weeks, Schultz has an elite 87.9% route participation rate. Historically, that kind of number is absolutely wheels up for fantasy tight ends. Especially inside an offense that operates at such a fast pace as the Cowboys operate. That speed hasn't helped that as much this season as they're operating without their starting quarterback, how once Dak Prescott returns, the offense should be more efficient and extend drives more regularly. That 87.9% route participation rate will be very useful when that happens.

That hasn't paid any dividends yet, but it's fair to point out that Schultz had his best game of the season with Prescott under center. In Week 1, he posted 9.7 half-PPR points and finished with a 22% target share. With Cooper Rush at quarterback, he's had target shares of 13.3% and 11.5%. Not surprisingly, his target per route run averages fall in line with his target shares. In Week 1, with Dak, he averaged a target on 21% of his routes and that fell to 14% and 13% with Rush.

His yard per route run in Week 1 is more than double his average from Weeks 2 and 4, which again just indicates how much better Schultz has been with Dak and it's an easy reason for fantasy managers to have some optimism for a second-half resurgence. He's been downright dreadful thus far, but a lot of things have been working against him. We've already touched on the quarterback injury, but Schultz has been injured himself with a knee injury.

When Dak returns to the lineup and Schultz is 100%, his utilization metrics, namely his route participation rate, point towards a second half of the season that is likely far better than the first. If you're a fantasy manager streaming a different tight end each week and Schultz had been panic-dropped, he's a guy to scoop up. If you're able to buy low on him, that might be a good idea too.

David Njoku, Cleveland Browns

If you're not on the David Njoku bandwagon, my question is... why not? What more does the guy have to do?

David Njoku has seen at least an 18% target share in each of Cleveland's last four games, and he's been a top-5 tight end (currently TE3) in two of his last three.

— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) October 9, 2022

Five weeks into the season, it has become abundantly clear that Week 1 was an outlier. He posted a 3.3% target share to open the season. Since that time, he's seen target shares of 18.5%, 32.3%, 20%, and 18.8%. One of these is not like the other. From Weeks 2–5, he has a 10.8 half-PPR PPG average and ranks as the TE6.

If the point is that Week 1 is an outlier, can we prove why it happened? The answer is we can. In Week 1, his route participation rate was 72%. In every other week since his route participation rate has been at 81% or higher. When it comes to fantasy tight ends, opportunity breeds fantasy points and Njoku has received a lot more opportunity in the last four weeks of the season and it's coincided with an increase in his fantasy production.

From Weeks 2–5, his 22.4% target share ranks fifth among tight ends and he's averaging the second-most receiving yards at 70.5 yards per game. While his average depth of target of 5.5 yards still leaves a lot to be desired, he's making up for it with a 6.7-yard after-the-catch average, which ranks as the sixth-highest among tight ends with at least 10 targets. During this span, no one – not even Mark Andrews – has a better yard-per-route run average than Njoku at 2.41 yards.

Every bit of his performance in Week 1 looks like an outlier. In multiple statistical categories across the board, it stands out as the one that just doesn't fit with the rest of them. With how he's been producing since then and the advanced metrics that indicate Njoku is not only receiving the opportunity of a top-5 tight end, but producing like one, fantasy managers should be locking him into lineups as a mid-TE1 the rest of the season. Or at least until something changes.

Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers

While Gerald Everett has been a strong fantasy producer thus far this season, averaging 8.4 half-PPR PPG, which has been good for TE9 thus far on the season, there are some red flags with his utilization that fantasy managers should be aware of.

No one is going to complain about a tight end who has three double-digit performances in five weeks, but there are some questions about if that production is sustainable. In the first five weeks of the season, Everett has never run a route on more than 74% of his team's dropbacks in any given week. In fact, there have been three weeks where that number has been under 70% and two weeks where it's actually been below 65%. That's no way around those numbers – it's concerning.

He also has just two weeks with a target share higher than 15%, both of which came with star wide receiver, Keenan Allen inactive due to a hamstring injury. Allen is expected to return to the lineup this week, which is likely to make targets even more difficult to come by. The one thing that Everett has going for him is his quarterback and his team's offensive philosophy. This isn't a mystery, but Justin Herbert is very good at this whole quarterback gig and he likes to push the ball down the field.

Since Everett isn't likely going to get a lot of targets with Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, and a sub-70% route participation rate, it's important that the targets he does get, are valuable. To that point, Everett has averaged 45 air yards per game, which ranks eighth among tight ends this season. His average depth of target of 7.8 yards ranks 11th and shows that he's being used downfield more than your typical tight end, which is a good thing. The high-scoring offensive and pass-heavy system of the Chargers' offense will provide him with many scoring opportunities. This is exactly what any tight end lacking ideal volume needs – an outlet to score touchdowns at an above-average rate to make up for the volume deficiencies. Everett has that.

While Everett may very well end up as a backend TE1 this season, he's likely going to be very TD-dependent from here on out, especially with the return of Keenan Allen and fellow tight end, Donald Parham who, unfortunately, could eat into his red zone utilization.

Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills

Ladies and gentlemen say hello to this year's Robert Tonyan. For some, maybe even most, this outcome is particularly surprising. Dawson Knox had a very low target share last year and was saved by an insanely-high and completely unrepeatable TD rate. Fast forward to the present day and all of the concerns maybe fantasy football analysts had with Knox's 2022 potential have come true.

Through five weeks of football, Knox is sporting just a 10.6% target share, which ranks 27th among tight ends. Some notable, or maybe not so notable names ahead of him include Jonnu Smith, Daniel Bellinger, Isaiah Likely, and Harrison Bryant. Two of those are rookies and there's an argument to be made that all four are actually backups on their own team – it's certainly true for three of them.

He's averaging just 28 yards per game and 3 receptions. He's also not being used downfield, which is somewhat of a change compared to last year. In 2022, Knox is averaging just 26 air yards per game, which is almost hard to believe considering how incredible Josh Allen has played to start the season. The real issue for Knox has been that he's caught zero of Allen's touchdown passes so far this season.

While he does have four red zone targets, which is tied for 12th with six other tight ends, he's been unable to find the end zone on the three receptions he's made in this area of the field. He has yet to earn a single end-zone target, which is concerning. Last year, he was used frequently near the end zone, but that's not something that has carried over this season.

Knox isn't something fantasy managers should be firing up every week. He is absolutely in the streamer category and doesn't need to be someone you hang onto week to week. His utilization numbers have been downright awful.

Tight Ends Under 50% Rostership That Can Be Ignored

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins

There is absolutely zero reason fantasy managers are still holding onto Mike Gesicki and yet, he's rostered in 44.6% of ESPN leagues, which is the 15th-highest among tight ends. Mike Gesicki, just so you can get an idea of just how bad he's been thus far, has a target share of just 7.2%. That's lower than Zach Gentry, who is the backup tight end for the Steelers. It's actually lower than not one, not two, but three Houston Texan tight ends and one of them isn't even a Houston Texan anymore.

He's averaging just 19.8 air yards per game, which indicates even the very few targets he's getting are pretty much useless. The most damning statistic for Gesicki's future fantasy value comes in the form of his route participation rate, which is just 55.2%. He's running a route on just over half of Miami's dropbacks and his target per route run rate is at a lowly 12%.

Gesicki has been incredibly ineffective with the targets he's received, but the bigger problem he's getting virtually no opportunity to turn it around. Gesicki is essentially a part-time player on one of the most highly-consolidated target hierarchies the NFL has. Statistically speaking, there's a better chance of the pass being thrown to Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle than every other Miami Dolphin player, combined. Gesicki should be on the waiver in even the deepest of leagues.

Tyler Conklin, New York Jets

Tyler Conklin season was fun while it lasted, but it's over. Technically, he's still the TE13 with a 7.1 half-PPR PPG average, but it's over. Fantasy managers have seen the tale of two halves as it relates to Conklins's utilization and unfortunately, the more recent utilization is the not-so-good one.

In the first four weeks of the season, with fellow tight end teammate, C.J. Uzomah banged up, Conklin played over 79% of the team's snaps every single week. In Week 5, that changed drastically, dropping down to 67%. Even more concerning and this is where the bottom completely fell out, was his route run participation rate. In Weeks 1–4, Conklin's route participation rate never dropped below 72%. It also included two weeks of 80% or higher. In Week 5, it absolutely plummeted, all the way down to 29.2%. Uzomah ran more routes than Conklin, finishing with 54.2%.

Jets target share the past two weeks with Zach Wilson:

Corey Davis- 20%
Garrett Wilson- 18%
Breece Hall- 15%
Elijah Moore- 15%
Tyler Conklin- 11%
Michael Carter- 9%
Braxton Berrios- 4%
CJ Uzomah- 4%
Jeff Smith- 4%

— Frank Stampfl (@Roto_Frank) October 10, 2022

In the first three weeks of the season, Conklin's target share was at 15.8%. In the two most recent weeks with Zach Wilson, that number has fallen to 11%, and realize, that's with Uzomah not playing at all in Week 4 yet. That's a very bad trend. As if the decrease in target share wasn't bad enough, the overall volume has been almost cut in half.

With Joe Flacco at the helm in Weeks 1–3, the Jets averaged 51.7 pass attempts per game. In the two games with Wilson behind center, that number has dropped to 28.5. If you picked up Conklin after Week 1 and were able to start him for the next three weeks, give yourself a pat on the back. That was a great call, but now is the time to get out.

YOLO

Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints

If you want to roll the dice on Taysom Hill, I won't stop you. He's got more weekly upside than almost every tight end in the league not named Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews. Just realize what it is you're getting yourself into.

Hill has averaged just 13.5 snaps per game. He has exactly one target on the season. He has one pass attempt on the season, which of course went for a touchdown. However, I'd be willing to put down a lot of money if he doesn't maintain a 100% TD rate. He has 21 carries on the season or roughly 5 per game. Starting him at your tight end spot is rolling the dice on five carries per game. That's the bet. Now, he's happened to score on five of his 21 carries, which is a TD rate of 23.8%. To say that's an elite number would be an incredibly vast understatement.

Of those 21 carries, only 4 of them have come in the red zone. Okay, hear me out. He has five rushing touchdowns and only four carries have come within 20 yards of their end zone. Think about that and consider, what is most likely to happen moving forward. He has three carries inside the 10-yard line and one carry inside the five-yard line. He has just over a quarter of his team's red zone carries (26.7%). It's not even like he's being used all the time in that area.

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