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Ellis looks at fantasy football WR sleepers in smash spots for Week 15 of the 2024 NFL season. Target these fantasy football wide receivers as starts in lineups.
Week 15, here we come. Whether this is the opening week of your fantasy playoffs, your last week of the regular season, or a bye week, we’ve made it to the end of the fantasy season.
Last week, we nailed our WR calls, smashing Jauan Jennings (seven receptions, 92 yards, two TDs) and Darnell Mooney (six receptions, 142 yards). Our other picks still relatively came through with Malik Nabers (five receptions, 79 yards), and Brandin Cooks (one reception, three yards, one TD).
With arguably the most important week coming up for many fantasy teams, I am hoping to build on this momentum. I have four more WR picks for you this week, who are all in a position to have a big game. My name is Ellis Johnson, and these are your Week 15 WR Smash Starts.
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Calvin Ridley (WR, TEN)
Since Week 8, Ridley has been the WR15. That’s right, the post-hype sleeper has finally started to turn on the fantasy jets as we’ve headed down the fantasy stretch this season.
It’s no surprise that this correlates directly with the departure of DeAndre Hopkins. This has left Ridley all alone on a miserable Titans offense to eat up all of the targets. Ridley has the eighth-most targets in the league since Week 6 (72).
Unfortunately, Will Levis and Mason Rudolph's targets aren’t the most valuable. However, the volume has made him a consistent WR3/flex play each week. This week, he faces a Bengals defense that has already booked its tickets to Cancun. Based on its play the last few weeks, it single-handedly decided that it’d rather vacation than make the playoffs this season.
Since Week 10, the Bengals have allowed the second-most fantasy points to the WR position. They have also allowed an average of two touchdowns per game to opposing wideouts -- that’s ridiculous. In a game where the Titans will likely be playing from behind, the volume and big-play ability will be there for Ridley to come through as a top-20 fantasy WR.
Here's a sneaky missed opportunity. Watch Ridley come in motion pre-snap.
That's a *Mike linebacker* picking up *Calvin Ridley* on a vertical route.
That's what we call a winner, folks. But NPF jumps offsides and ruins it. You can see how frustrated Levis is at the end of the… pic.twitter.com/yUa8Fa177A
— Easton Freeze (@eastonfreeze) December 10, 2024
Adam Thielen (WR, CAR)
I’ll be honest. This resurgence from Thielen was not even remotely on my radar. I regret not trading pennies for him to play down the stretch. A big part of this turnaround has been Bryce Young looking like the best QB in his class. Yes, you read that right. I believe his recent stretch of games has been better than C.J. Stroud this season.
Anyway, we can argue about that another time. Let’s talk about 34-year-old Adam Thielen. Coming off back-to-back games of 10+ targets and nearly 100 yards, he can enter the lineup with relative confidence. Although "NBA Jam" rules require one more week to be on fire, it’s do-or-die for the fantasy playoffs.
Thielen is facing a Cowboys defense that has struggled all season and is now missing linebacker DeMarvion Overshown for the rest of the season. Last week, we saw Ja'Marr Chase have 177 yards and two scores on Monday Night Football in Jerry World. Then again, Chase has done that to a few teams this season. Looking at the previous two games, the Cowboys allowed Terry McLaurin, Noah Brown, and Malik Nabers to have 70 or more yards.
Thielen does not provide an elite fantasy ceiling. However, with Young playing as well as he is, there is no reason for him not to have double-digit targets for a third consecutive week. If that is the case, he has a very safe floor with the potential to find the end zone. He is a clear top-30 play for me this week.
34-year-old slot man Adam Thielen in three games since returning from injury:
* 101 routes on 131 Bryce Young dropbacks (77%)
* 25 targets for a 22% share
* 20-258-1 result, 80% catch rate
Note Jalen Coker (quad) has missed all three games.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) December 9, 2024
Khalil Shakir (WR, BUF)
We need to give Shakir some more respect; well, at least I need to. Shakir has been awesome this season. Stepping up in the absence of Stefon Diggs, he has completely taken away all the hype from Dalton Kincaid this season. In his last seven games, he has seven or more targets in every one of them, and at least 50 yards in all but one.
Much like Thielen, his ceiling is capped with limited touchdown upside. However, when you are Josh Allen’s favorite target, there is always potential to find paydirt. This week, Buffalo has a massive game against the Detroit Lions.
If you thought last week’s game against the Rams was electric, just wait for this week. The Lions are arguably the best team in football right now and cannot stop opposing WRs. Particularly, they can not stop opposing slot WRs, which is where Shakir thrives. The Lions have allowed 90+ yards to a receiver in each of their last three weeks.
Shakir will get enough targets and involvement to have a top-30 floor, with plenty of upside if this turns into the shootout I expect.
KHALIL SHAKIRpic.twitter.com/Vd7v5MjKdv
— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) December 8, 2024
Jakobi Meyers (WR, LV)
We are loading this article full of volume WRs with limited ceilings. Since the departure of the team’s top option (Davante Adams), Meyers has the fourth-most targets over the last six weeks.
What muddies the water even more is that Aidan O'Connell is now out for the season, leaving Desmond Ridder as the only Raiders QB left. Ironically, this is perfect timing as the Raiders take on Ridder’s old team, the Falcons, on Monday night.
Hopefully, Ridder can perform in this “revenge game,” as many fantasy teams will be relying on Brock Bowers and Meyers. Thankfully, the Falcons have been giving up ridiculous fantasy points to opposing WRs. Last week, we saw Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson combine for 15 receptions, 265 yards, and five touchdowns.
It’s never ideal when you are relying on Ridder in what could be the final week of your fantasy season. However, I think Meyers will continue to have a steady target share and decent yardage as Ridder gets fired up to face his old team.
Lowest Drop Percentage this Season: (Min 75 Targets)
🥇 Jakobi Meyers - 0.0%
🥈 Amon-Ra St. Brown - 1.2%
🥈 Trey McBride - 1.2%
🥉 Khalil Shakir - 1.5% pic.twitter.com/Eiu09LRy7F— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) December 10, 2024
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