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John breaks down fantasy football rookie sleepers and risers for Week 13 of 2024. Which NFL rookies from 2024 could be fantasy football league winners?
We're just about to start the main slate of Week 13 games, which means most players have played out most of their regular seasons. There isn't as much room for huge breakouts, but they could still happen at some point. But now, another important facet of decision-making is emerging for fantasy managers.
There is a crop of freshman players that have shown impressive upside but haven't quite made it as lineup locks yet. Guys like Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers aren't in this group -- you should have already been starting him every game. The decision for him is easy.
Let's dive in to how you should handle the remaining new players in the league and the uncertainty you may have over them.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:- 2025 fantasy football rankings (redraft)
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Start Him In Every Game: Ladd McConkey
Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Ladd McConkey cemented himself as his team's top receiver. That won't change. He should be locked into starting lineups from now on. While many fantasy managers may consider benching him for "tougher" matchups, he has the skill set to perform well no matter the coverage he faces.
Ladd McConkey made two Ravens fall over on this route. pic.twitter.com/pDtyX1MpCG
— Daniel Popper (@danielrpopper) November 27, 2024
The former Georgia Bulldog's route-running skills are outlandishly good for a rookie. What's more, LA's lead running back, J.K. Dobbins (knee), won't play in Week 13 due to a knee injury and could miss more time. His backup options are less than stellar, and we could see the team rely more heavily on the pass moving forward.
The matchup with the Denver Broncos in Week 16 is a risky one, though. Denver has one of the best cornerbacks in the league, Patrick Surtain II, who tends to follow the opposing team's best receiver around the field and lock them down, even if it costs him a few penalty flags.
Pat Surtain rankings among cornerbacks with at least 300 coverage snaps (per @NextGenStats):
Passer Rating: 1st (47.6)
Yards Allowed: 1st (182)
EPA/Target: 1st (-0.68)
Tight Window %: 1st (40.0%)
Target Rate: 1st (10.8)
Yards After the Catch: 1st (36)
Receptions Allowed: 2nd… pic.twitter.com/DSyUKpfsgk— Tyler Gorse (@Tyler_Gorse_) November 27, 2024
Still, quarterback Justin Herbert is elite, and No. 15 could still have a fine game against them. In that matchup, though, it may be worth starting someone else in his place if you're on the fence between the two. But if McConkey starts getting multiple games of 10 or more targets, you could easily have a league-winner on your hands.
League-Winning Potential, But Some Obstacles: Brian Thomas Jr.
Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. has a blueprint to be a league-winning wideout. He has ridiculous outlier athleticism, generates huge separation on his routes, can make circus catches regularly, and is an absolute nightmare to cover in all areas of the field.
It's so insane that Brian Thomas Jr. can create this much separation on horizontally breaking routes.
He's absolutely terrifying as a vertical threat,,, AND he can do this? pic.twitter.com/L5tngxM7DR
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 18, 2024
Unfortunately, his quarterback, Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) is dealing with a left shoulder injury. If he can heal up reasonably for the playoffs, Thomas could go on an absolute heater to end the season. He's improving his game at an impressive rate, and he could be a frightening player all next season for opposing defenses.
Even though there are a few more tough matchups on the way (he must face the Tennessee Titans twice in the next four weeks and the Texans next week), the Jaguars' defense is so poor that every game from now on could be a shootout. Thomas has put together huge games even without a ton of targets.
Brian Thomas Jr. truly might already be one of the most terrifying coverage assignments in the NFL pic.twitter.com/cUeffQSCt5
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 30, 2024
It's important to remember that as time goes on, rookies develop chemistry with their quarterbacks. There have been quite a few missed opportunities between BTJr and the guy throwing him the ball. We would be having a very different conversation if some of those connected.
Week 13 might be a rough game. The Texans will have defensive end Will Anderson Jr. back. He's elite. Expect TLaw to be under duress early and often, which could limit the passing game. But in the playoffs, you'd best start Thomas in each game. There's a decent amount of risk, but the upside is astronomical.
Still Has Potential To Deliver: Malik Nabers
New York Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers expressed his frustration with the playcalling and coaching staff after a Week 12 loss that saw him not get any work until the game was well out of reach. Despite this and last week's matchup against a team with a great pass rush, Nabers scored double-digit PPR fantasy points in both contests.
Malik Nabers is kind of good pic.twitter.com/Cn9kt3bHii
— Anthony Rivardo (@Anthony_Rivardo) November 29, 2024
Unfortunately, the Giants are a poverty franchise with a dumpster fire of an offense and a horrible quarterback situation. But it's important not to lose sight of how talented Nabers truly is. He has a string of very easy matchups coming up. In most PPR leagues, his upside is at least worth a WR3/FLEX spot. You should be starting him every week from now on.
You won't want to miss his boom games. They could be the difference between advancing and being knocked out of the fantasy playoffs altogether.
Maybe One More Worth Picking Up: Devaughn Vele
Denver Broncos wide receiver Devaughn Vele hauled in six of his nine targets for 80 receiving yards in Week 12, and he's still rostered in just 37% of Sleeper leagues. He's probably someone you want to at least have on rosters in PPR. He could have big upside if his team's No. 1 WR, Courtland Sutton, gets hurt.
A dime from Bo Nix on the move and a fantastic toe-drag catch from Devaughn Vele on the sideline. pic.twitter.com/k4ztOxIMt7
— Frankie Abbott (@FrankiesFilm) October 28, 2024
A rising tide lifts all boats, and Broncos QB Bo Nix has been playing fantastic football for the last few weeks. Vele could even be worth starting if he gets a target volume similar to what he had last game. Even in the playoffs, injuries happen, and he's someone who could save you from a terrible situation.
So What Should I Do With This Information?
This late in the season, the most important decisions you can make with rookies is whether to start or sit them. If you made it into the playoffs, but have inconsistent players on your roster or struggle with start-sit decisions, we hope that the above analysis helps you win your matchups and advance!
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