RADIO
Top fantasy football risers and fallers heading into Week 9 of the 2021 NFL season. Adam Koffler identifies players whose trade values are rising or falling.
Week 8 is officially in the books. This week, the Ravens and Raiders are back in action, with the Lions, Seahawks, Buccaneers, and Washington Football Team on Bye.
In this weekly column, we'll be looking at players whose arrow may be pointing up, and players whose arrow may be pointing down based on the previous week's games. We'll try not to overreact, but instead, use relevant data to make informed decisions about certain players.
Here are the key risers and fallers heading into Week 9 (and beyond) of the NFL season.
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Fantasy Football Risers for Week 9
Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints
Hill has been in the concussion protocol the last couple of games, but he's expected back for Week 9, just in time as Jameis Winston, unfortunately, tore his ACL in Week 8. In four starts last season, Hill averaged 208.5 passing yards and one touchdown, as well as 52.3 rushing yards and another score per game. If he's cleared to play in Week 9 (and as long as he's named the starter over Trevor Siemian), Hill should be considered a top-15 quarterback with a very favorable upcoming schedule (vs. ATL, @ TEN, @ PHI).
Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers
After seemingly being in Kyle Shanahan's doghouse earlier in the season, Aiyuk came out and played on a season-high 88% of the snaps in Week 8. He ran 24 routes on 28 Jimmy Garoppolo dropbacks (85.7%) and was targeted seven times (25.9% target share). Deebo Samuel still led the way with a 33.3% target share, but it's clear Aiyuk is back atop the wide receiver depth chart next to Samuel. The 49ers have a very favorable schedule moving forward, so expect Aiyuk to put together some solid performances down the stretch (so long as he can stay in Shanahan's good graces).
Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
Pittman recorded double-digit receptions (10) for the first time in his career in Week 8 on a career-high 15 targets. That was good for a 31.3% target share. He caught two touchdowns and has now scored four times in his last four games. Pittman also now has three games of 12+ targets this season. He has become Carson Wentz's go-to guy in almost every situation, and his arrow is pointing straight up as we head into Week 9 and beyond.
Michael Carter, New York Jets
With Tevin Coleman (hamstring) on the sidelines the last two games, Carter has seemingly been handed the keys to the castle as far as usage goes. He's played on an average of 71% of the snaps while averaging 13 rush attempts and 11.5 targets. New Jets quarterback Mike White has essentially turned Carter into D'Andre Swift, a PPR machine. White has targeted his running backs (Carter and Ty Johnson) on 45.3% of his pass attempts. It appears as if Zach Wilson will miss at least a few weeks, so Carter should continue to rack up the receptions as the Jets are either competitive or play from behind most weeks. He should be considered a top-15 RB in PPR leagues so long as White is the starting quarterback.
Dan Arnold, Jacksonville Jaguars
In his last three games, Arnold is averaging 7.7 targets and playing on 70% of the snaps for the Jaguars. He's running 31.3 routes per game in those three games. He seems to be a favorite of Trevor Lawrence's, especially when the Jags are playing from behind, which they are likely to be doing in the next few weeks against the Bills, Colts, and 49ers. Consider Arnold a low-end TE1 until further notice.
Other Risers: Chase Claypool, Van Jefferson, Hunter Renfrow, Zack Moss, Boston Scott, Darren Waller
Fantasy Football Fallers for Week 9
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
Chubb returned to the lineup in Week 8 after a two-week absence with a calf injury. He toted the rock 16 times for 61 yards and caught his only target for another eight yards. He played just 56% of the snaps, but that is in line with his snap share the first five games of the season. Even with Kareem Hunt out, the Browns don't seem keen on giving Chubb added usage. D'Ernest Johnson played on 31% of the snaps and had seven opportunities of his own (four carries + three targets). Even Demetric Felton got in on the action, playing on 15% of the snaps and getting two opportunities. Chubb is considered a faller this week because it was expected he could see an uptick in targets with Hunt out and that didn't come to fruition, at least in his first game back from the calf injury.
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
This one might take you by surprise, but hear me out. Jameis Winston is out for the season, which likely means Taysom Hill takes over as the starter (so long as he clears the concussion protocol). In four Hill starts last season, Kamara had target counts of one, two, three, and 10. The 10 was very much so an outlier. He's more than likely going to see a decrease in targets with a dual-threat quarterback under center.
And then there's Mark Ingram II's arrival. In two games prior to sharing a backfield with Ingram, Kamara saw 91.7% of the RB opportunities (36 carries + 19 targets). In Week 8 (with Ingram), he played a season-low 67% of the snaps and saw just 67.6% of the RB opportunities (19 carries + four targets). Ingram played on just 29% of the snaps but got six carries and saw two targets on the day. Expect the combination of Hill starting and Ingram's presence to suppress Kamara's fantasy value just a bit from what we've become accustomed to early in the season.
Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis Colts
Hines continues to see a snap share of around 30%. His opportunity share has also steadily decreased since Week 3. Meanwhile, Jonathan Taylor continues to see more and more work out of the backfield, culminating in a season-high 74% snap share and 76.9% of the RB opportunities. Compare that to Week 1 when Taylor played on 55% of the snaps and had a 58.5% RB opportunity share, while Hines played on 45% of the snaps and had a 41.5% RB opportunity share. In Week 8, Hines' RB opportunity share dropped to just 23.1%. Unfortunately for Hines, his workload is negatively correlated with Taylor's workload, which seems to be rising and rising fast. It also doesn't help that the Colts didn't move Marlon Mack at the trade deadline.
David Johnson, Houston Texans
When Mark Ingram was traded to the Saints, the hope was that it opened up more work for David Johnson, who has seen a 50% snap share in three of his last four games. However, Ingram's departure had the exact opposite effect. He went from playing on 54% of the snaps and getting 13 opportunities (seven carries + six targets) in Week 7 to playing on just 18% of the snaps and getting three opportunities (two carries + one target) in Week 8. Scottie Phillips played for the first time all season and Rex Burkhead played on a season-high 49% of the snaps as the Texans were being blown out by the Rams. Johnson is going to be very hard to trust moving forward as the Texans look to play a myriad of guys down the stretch.
Noah Fant, Denver Broncos
First off, Fant tested positive for COVID-19 and was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Tuesday, so he'll need to go through the protocols in order to play in Week 9 (which may or may not be possible. But even before this news, Fant is a faller as a result of Jerry Jeudy's return to the Broncos' lineup. With Jeudy out, Fant had been playing on an average of 87% of the snaps. He also had two games with double-digit targets. But with Jeudy back in Week 7, Fant played on just 77% of the snaps and ran just 17 routes. In comparison, he was averaging 30.3 routes run per game. He can still be a low-end TE1 as a result of his prowess in the red zone, but don't expect many more double-digit target games for the Broncos' number one tight end moving forward.
Other Fallers: Allen Robinson II, Odell Beckham Jr., Darrel Williams, Kenneth Gainwell
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