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NFL free agency seems like a lifetime ago, but DeAndre Hopkins signing with the Tennessee Titans is one of the last few significant dominoes to fall. Fantasy managers have been awaiting his decision and the final verdict has likely left many disappointed. As far as fantasy landing spots go, Tennessee was certainly not the preferred destination. However, all is not lost.
We’ll be discussing Hopkins' fantasy value now that he’s a Titan and the implications it has for Ryan Tannehill, Treylon Burks, and Chigoziem Okonkwo. Hopkins’ decision is going to affect the entire offense in a positive way. He was still highly effective and depending on cost, fantasy managers shouldn’t entirely be shying away from him.
Here are some of the previous fantasy football outlook articles covering some of the biggest NFL free agency moves this offseason:
- DJ Moore's Trade to Chicago
- Derek Carr's Signing in New Orleans – How Does This Affect Carr and Chris Olave?
- Miles Sanders Signing with the Carolina Panthers
- Aaron Rodgers Trade to the Jets and the Impact it Has on Him and Garrett Wilson
- Darren Waller Trade to the New York Giants
- Brandin Cooks Trade to the Dallas Cowboys
- Damien Harris Signs with Buffalo Forming a Running Back Committee with James Cook
- Devin Singletary Signs with the Houston Texans: What is his value and that of Dameon Pierce?
- D'Andre Swift Trade and Rashaad Penny Signing with the Philadelphia Eagles
- Houston Texans Passing Outlook with Signings of Dalton Schultz, Robert Woods, and draft selection of C.J. Stroud
- Las Vegas Raiders Passing Outlook with Signings of Jimmy Garoppolo and Jakobi Meyers, and What it Means for Davante Adams
DeAndre Hopkins is Still Dangerous
The notion that Hopkins is washed just because he’s 31 years old is just ludicrous. If you’re a numbers person, that opinion won’t mesh with your spreadsheets. If you’re a film critic, it doesn't jive either. The age concern is present with Hopkins because most NFL players start declining around age 30. However, let’s be perfectly clear, Hopkins is not like most NFL players. He’s a future Hall of Famer and outside of 2021 where he dealt with a rib/chest injury, along with a hamstring and knee injury, that’s exactly what he’s played like the past four seasons.
| Year | Target Share | Targets Per Game | Receptions Per Game | Receiving Yards Per Game |
| 2022 | 29.7% (4th) | 10.9 (2nd) | 7.1 (4th) | 79.7 (9th) |
| 2021 | 17.7% (36th) | 6.4 (45th) | 4.2 (41st) | 57.2 (31st) |
| 2020 | 26.6% (2nd) | 10.0 (4th) | 7.1 (4th) | 87.4 (5th) |
| 2019 | 27.4% (2nd) | 9.8 (4th) | 6.8 (3rd) | 77.9 (8th) |
The entire 2021 season looks like an outlier and considering the number of nagging injuries he dealt with that season and considering how he played in 2022, fantasy managers should feel plenty confident in his, still very, very good skillset. While his counting stats have been incredibly impressive in three of the past four seasons, so too are his efficiency metrics, and fantasy production.
| Year | Air Yards Per Game | YPRR | TPRR | Yards Per Team Pass Attempt | Half-PPR PPG | WR Ranking |
| 2022 | 108.4 (5th) | 2.19 (15th) | 30% (4th) | 2.11 (15th) | 13.5 | WR9 |
| 2021 | 78.8 (31st) | 1.76 (32nd) | 20% (45th) | 1.36 (40th) | 12.6 | WR17 |
| 2020 | 88.1 (15th) | 2.23 (9th) | 26% (7th) | 2.45 (4th) | 14.6 | WR7 |
| 2019 | 97.6 (14th) | 2.00 (20th) | 25% (6th) | 2.34 (5th) | 14.2 | WR6 |
If you’re a numbers person, what Hopkins has done over the past four years has to be very impressive. He's been incredibly consistent outside of an injury-hampered 2021 campaign. However, with each player analysis, there are two different viewpoints; what the numbers say and what the film says. Luckily, if you’re a film person and aren’t entirely sold yet, we’ll use Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception on Hopkins to try to seal the deal. You can read his 2022 profile here.
There is still an awful lot of green up there. Matt Harmon had this to say about Hopkins’ play the past two seasons,
“Hopkins was one of the best separators in the NFL in 2019 and 2020. He averaged a 75.8% success rate vs. man coverage, 83.2% success rate vs. zone and 76.4% success rate vs. press. All elite-level scores and representative of a player playing at his peak. Hopkins showed a slight decline from those lofty heights in 2021 while he played through injuries. He didn’t get quite back to the elite level last year but his 72.2% success rate vs. man and 72.9% success rate vs. press both cleared his 2021 results. I don’t think we’ve seen the beginning of the end warning signs for Hopkins yet.”
If you’re looking for a reason to be “out” on Hopkins, he hasn’t given you one. He’s continued to perform at a high level, which is backed up by the numbers, the film, and his fantasy football ranking. The most significant factor when it comes to Hopkins will be how his value shifts now that his final destination is known. His addition to the Tennessee offense will have massive implications for several other players, as well.
The Effect of DeAndre Hopkins’ Decision
Treylon Burks had been one of the most sought-after receivers in the middle rounds. He was priced as a WR3, but the upside as Tennessee’s lone alpha was incredibly appealing. His intrigue has quickly dissipated. Since Mike Vrabel became the Titans’ head coach back in 2018, the number two receiver for Tennessee has never finished with more than 95 targets. In fact, in four out of five seasons, the second receiver did not even surpass 70 targets.
There’s no way to sugarcoat it, Burks’ redraft value has been hurt considerably. Outside of a Hopkins injury, there’s virtually no ceiling outcome in play here. Tennessee has finished no higher than 26th in pass attempts per game and finished worse than 30th in four of Vrabel’s five seasons as head coach. With Hopkins operating as the team’s alpha, there is a very significant volume problem for Burks.
Burks had been drafted as a backend WR3 by Yahoo! fantasy managers in half-PPR scoring, but that will drop in the coming drafts and it’s likely to be a significant one. After averaging below 28.5 passes per game for the past five years and with Hopkins soaking up a big chunk of that, Burks is likely to be a very inconsistent option for fantasy managers.
Burks played in 11 games as a rookie and played in more than 35% of the snaps in 10 of them. During those 10 games, he averaged 5.3 targets, 3.2 receptions, and 41.9 yards per game. He posted an 18.8% target share, a 1.9-yard-per-route run average (YPRR), and a 24% target-per-route run (TPRR). He did some good things as a rookie and his TPRR was a reason for a potentially significant workload increase in his sophomore season. However, his target share leaves plenty of questions about what kind of target volume fantasy managers can expect with Hopkins now.
Everyone’s favorite sleeper tight end had been Chigoziem Okonkwo. He didn’t play more than 57% of the team’s snaps in a single game last year, but when provided opportunities, he made the most of them. He finished with 46 targets, 32 receptions, and 450 yards. His 3.26 YPRR ranked first among tight ends, along with his yard per reception average of 14.1. He also finished second in yards per target with 9.8 and TPRR at 33.3%. He ran just 138 routes, which was just 53rd among tight ends, but he popped.
Prior to Hopkins signing in Tennessee, he looked poised to be Tannehill’s second weapon in the passing game. Now, however, he’s nothing more than the third option in a very run-heavy offense. His tight end ranking and subsequent ADP will drop solidly in the next few weeks as drafters adjust to Hopkins’ decision.
While Hopkins’ decision hurt the fantasy value and appeal of Burks and Okonkwo, Ryan Tannehill’s fantasy value significantly increased. Not only will Hopkins provide Tannehill with a much-needed weapon in the passing game, but Tennessee’s interest in Hopkins signifies they have no interest in a rebuild. This means fantasy managers can feel confident in Tannehill being the starting quarterback for the 2023 season.
Since becoming the starter for Tennessee during the 2019 season, Tannehill has quietly been one of the more efficient quarterbacks in the NFL. He struggled last season, but his top pass-catcher was a 30-year-old coming off a torn ACL and his second best pass-catcher was a fourth-round rookie tight end. Still, since 2019, this is where Tannehill ranks among several passing statistics:
- 66.9% Completion Percentage — Tied for Sixth Best
- 5.5% Touchdown Rate — Tied for Eighth Best
- 2.0% Interception Rate — Tied for 10th Lowest
- 100.5 QB Rating — Fifth Highest
- 8.09 Adjusted Yard Per Attempt Average - Fifth Highest
He often doesn’t get the recognition, but Tannehill has played remarkably well for Tennessee. This has also translated to fantasy football. He’s averaged 18.6 PPG per start from 2019-2022. A.J. Brown only played in 13 games in 2021 and we’ve already discussed the limitations last year in the passing game. However, in 2020, when Tannehill had AJB and Corey Davis he finished as the QB12 with a 22.1 PPG. Hopkins and Burks are the closest Tannehill will have had to those two since then.
2023 Fantasy Expectations
Since becoming the starter back in 2019, Tannehill has averaged between 27 and 31 pass attempts per game. This gives us a large sample size that is incredibly consistent. Even with the addition of Hopkins, fantasy managers shouldn’t expect a deviation from the style of football they’ve played the past four seasons. If we assume the Titans will average 30 passes per game, this is what their receiving distribution could look like.
| Player | Target Share | Targets | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Touchdowns | Half-PPR PPG |
| D, Hopkins | 25.9% | 132 | 88 | 1,091 | 7 | 11.47 |
| T, Burks | 19.8% | 101 | 64 | 864 | 5 | 8.72 |
| C, Okonkwo | 13.1% | 67 | 44 | 528 | 4 | 5.80 |
| K, Philips | 10.5% | 54 | 37 | 389 | 2 | 4.08 |
| D, Henry | 8.4% | 43 | 34 | 340 | 2 | 3.70 |
| N, Westbrook-Ikhine | 9.6% | 49 | 27 | 392 | 1 | 3.45 |
| Remaining Players | 12.5% | 64 | 38 | 384 | 2 | 4.08 |
| Total | 513 | 332 | 3,988 | 23 |
Hopkins had a 29% target share in Arizona, but that was mostly with Marquise Brown and Zach Ertz injured. Burks and Okonkwo should provide a bit more target competition where that number drops just a bit. We’re also projecting a slight decline with age. His 11.47 half-PPR PPG would have finished as the WR20 last year. Due to his age, playing with a new quarterback, and having to learn a new offense, I’d feel comfortable targeting Hopkins in the WR22-26 range. That allows some room for upside where I can make a profit on my selection.
Burks 8.72 PPG average would’ve been WR43 last year. Fellow rookie Drake London averaged 8.6 PPG last season. Fantasy managers should target Burks as their WR4. If Hopkins were to miss time, he’d become Tannehill’s top option and would receive a significant uptick in target volume. Unfortunately, without an injury to Hopkins, Burks' ceiling is capped. There's a very small pathway to a WR3 season, but the margins are fairly small.
Okonkwo’s 5.8 PPG average would have finished as the TE25 last season. I’d be willing to target him a bit earlier than that, however, due to the upside he flashed as a rookie. In the event he’s able to carve out a bigger slice of the pie, he has the athleticism to create plays after the catch. Still, as long as Hopkins and Burks remain healthy, he won’t be much more than a touchdown-or-bust tight end. However, Hopkins is 31 and Burks struggled with injuries last season. This is why I’d be willing to target Okonkwo a bit earlier than his projected PPG average suggests.
No other pass-catchers are fantasy-viable or even anyone fantasy managers need to pay attention to. However, Tannehill becomes a cheap and decent option in Superflex leagues. He’s a good bet to provide an additional 250-300 rushing yards and a few scores. From the passing numbers projected above with 250 rushing yards and two rushing scores, Tannehill would finish with a 15.56 PPG average. This also factors in a projected 10 interceptions and two lost fumbles.
He’s currently being drafted as the QB32 on Yahoo!, although this is a one-quarterback format. However, this still shows how undervalued he is. Fantasy managers are likely expecting second-round rookie Will Levis to see the field at some point, but the Hopkins acquisition says otherwise. This team is playing to win and Tannehill is their best option to do that. Currently priced as a QB3, fantasy managers should be targeting Tannehill in Superflex and two-quarterback leagues at his current cost.
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