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John Laghezza's fantasy football breakouts watch for Week 2 based on snap count risers/fallers in 2025. Whose usage and fantasy value is trending up or down?
Football season is here! With that out of my system, we can't very well calculate changes in snap share without prior data for comparison -- but that won't stop me from grinding what fantasy usage we've seen. Regardless of format or flavor, touches, targets, and opportunities rule the day. Talent be darned, opportunities have always been and continue to reign supreme as the driving commodity in this funny game of ours.
As much as players, coordinators, and owners spend Monday through Saturday lying right to our faces, they're left with no choice but to show their cards via player deployment once the whistle blows -- and that's where I come in. Every week, I'll be right here at RotoBaller, breaking down the weekend's most impactful changes in utilization and what it means to fantasy gamers going forward.
Should we buy the dip and push our chips in on talented players off to disappointing starts? Or call shenanigans on a top and sell the rip on a false breakout? We won't know until I'm done doing my due diligence, digging through whatever granular snap, route, target, and touch data I can get these grubby hands on.
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Usage Bumps I'm Buying
Keon Coleman, WR, Buffalo Bills
While still too early for victory laps, you have my unabashed permission to feel good about rostering Keon Coleman. The Bills' second-round pick in 2024 fell short of becoming a universal fantasy darling this summer, despite the committed draft capital and multitude of voided targets in the Bills wide receiver room.
Coleman didn't go out and post a monster game versus Baltimore (8-112-1) on outlying efficiency alone. This was no fluke -- he ran a league-leading 49 routes, encompassing 96% of Josh Allen's dropbacks. Wow.
To think Coleman managed to drop 25+ fantasy points on a very good Ravens secondary, what's the ceiling look like against the league's pushovers? WR1 season loading...
Keon Coleman looked like a WR1 last night #BillsMafia | #GoBills
pic.twitter.com/FqPwYJSJJU— Peter DiBiasi (@DibiasiPeter) September 8, 2025
Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
If usage increases are viewed as a bullish signal on a player, what do we call it when a front office trades away the biggest competition for backfield touches?
It's wheels all the way up for Travis Etienne Jr., who not only popped in the box score (16-143-0; 3-13-0) but also posted 19 total touches -- good for the 10th most among all RBs in Week 1. With Tank Bigsby off to the City of Brotherly Love, Jacksonville's former first-round pick will project for as large a workload as anyone in the league.
But wait, there's more -- Etienne also ran a route on nearly half of Trevor Lawrence's dropbacks, earning a target on 20% of them. The dual-threat breakout in Liam Coen's offense is on. Get those buy-high trade offers out there ASAP...
Javonte Williams, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Ignore any social media narratives claiming Dallas' Javonte Williams is dusty and/or over the hill. As long as the Cowboys continue to show this kind of faith in their free-agent running back, so will we. Sure, Williams found paydirt twice to boost his fantasy total -- but make no mistake, his usage checks all the right boxes.
Shouldering a 68%+ team rush share (sixth at the position) and second among all RBs with 10+ touches, boasting an outstanding 73% success rate, this could wind up as more than a pure volume play.
Whenever Dak Prescott is under center, the Dallas offense will project strongly, and securing the lion's share of the team carries always proves valuable. I'm sending trade offers to any managers who may see Week 1 as a meaningless spike and undervalue his rest-of-season potential.
.@javontewill33 scores the 1st TD of the season!
DALvsPHI on NBC
Stream on @NFLPlus + Peacock pic.twitter.com/80N3ru99qh— NFL (@NFL) September 5, 2025
Kayshon Boutte, WR, New England Patriots
For the countless analysts who spent all summer predicting a huge step forward for New England, I can't remember many (if any) touting Kayshon Boutte as the catalyzing factor.
The former sixth-round pick out of LSU ran 44 routes (86% route participation), posting a marvelous 2.34 yards per route in the process. And unless the Pats turn their poor secondary play around, Drake Maye will consistently trail late, setting up more possibilities for Boutte to capitalize on that 40% team air yard share.
Juwan Johnson, TE, New Orleans Saints
Over the years, we've come to hand-wave the tight-end position as mostly random. Identify routes, hope to fall in the end zone, then rinse and repeat.
For utilization honks like myself, no one's deployment shot the antennae up like New Orleans' Juwan Johnson. It doesn't happen often, but the former WR managed to wrangle the unicorn and run a route on 100% of Spencer Rattler's 47 dropbacks. Some stats shouldn't be ignored, even in small samples.
Sure, the Saints will be among the NFL's worst offenses all year -- who cares? Expect New Orleans to spend the vast majority of this season playing from behind against preventative shells, where Johnson can rack up enough garbage-time points to finish the year as a top-5 tight end.
Usage Downturns I'm Selling
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Sigh. Audible frustration is about all Kenneth Walker III managers can muster after seeing the Seahawks' Week 1 backfield usage. Seeing a measly 2.0 yards per carry, -0.35 EPA/rush, and 50% negative carry rate somehow still pales in comparison to stomaching just 10 carries from your healthy fourth-round pick. Oof.
The worst part? It had nothing to do with the game script, something we understand is inherently baked into the cake with Walker. Sunday's game against San Francisco never featured a lead on either side of more than a touchdown, when he should have dominated.
Now, combine how explosive "backup" Zach Charbonnet looked with the fact that he also usurped eight of nine third-down snaps from Walker, and there's cause for major concern. Frankly, I'm panicking.
Kaleb Johnson, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Every year, fantasy gamers play musical chairs with rookie running backs, dreaming of league-winning breakouts. Unfortunately, that same coin also has a second, much dirtier side -- and sometimes the music stops, leaving us stuck standing.
That's exactly how anyone who spent a top-80 pick on Pittsburgh's Kaleb Johnson must feel. After no solid indication this offseason that the Steelers' most recent third-round pick would be an afterthought, we're all here just holding the bag.
Quick question. What do Zamir White, LeQuint Allen Jr., Rasheen Ali, and AJ Dillon all have in common? If you guessed they all played more than the nine snaps on Johnson's ledger, you'd be correct. Yikes. Horror aside, I'd be ok holding on for one more week just in case -- but be ready to head for the fantasy exit with this pathetic level of utilization.
Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Another case of coaches lying, causing delusions of grandeur throughout the fantasy universe. Colts HC Shane Steichen talked up Josh Downs this offseason, alluding to increased usage in 2025.
Remember, Downs played almost exclusively in three-wide receiver sets last year, and seeing the field in 12 personnel would represent a huge boost. Sadly, the lie detector determined that it was a lie -- Downs played in exactly zero two-wide receiver alignments in Week 1. No better time than now to try and entice a buy-low deal before it's too late.
Matthew Golden, WR, Green Bay Packers
Perhaps Matthew Golden drafters should have anticipated split usage from HC Matt LaFleur after an established track record of doing just that. Well, on the teams Green Bay's first-round speedster fell to, it's too late for that -- there's a decision to make.
For starters, Golden ran a paltry 13 routes (yes, 13!). Not to mention the Packers defense looked invincible out there, raising doubts that their offense gets pushed consistently. Even a decent jump from the already sad 56.5% route participation would demand an unrealistic amount of efficiency to succeed. Don't drop him (yet) -- but Golden's goose appears to be currently cooked.
Colston Loveland, TE, Chicago Bears
With utilization breakouts at the TE position like Juwan Johnson and Harold Fannin Jr., Colston Loveland managers find themselves in an early predicament.
Personally, I'm making the rare exception of rostering a TE on my bench for now -- but something's got to give. Loveland posted an uninspiring 55.6% route participation rate on two-thirds of the routes, and half the targets earned by Cole Kmet. Not great, Bob. Plus, Caleb Williams fell apart as the game progressed in Week 1. It's still early, but not too soon to prepare a plan B.
Notable Flex Usage Risers
- Romeo Doubs, WR, GB
- Cedric Tillman, WR, CLE
- Harold Fannin Jr., TE, CLE
- Dylan Sampson, RB, CLE
- Elic Ayomanor, WR, TEN
- Casey Washington, WR, ATL
- Kenneth Gainwell, RB, PIT
- Troy Franklin, WR, DEN
- Trey Benson, RB, ARI
- Xavier Hutchinson, WR, HOU
Notable Flex Usage Fallers
- Isiah Pacheco, RB, KC
- Kyle Williams, WR, NE
- Marvin Mims Jr., WR, DEN
- Cam Skattebo, RB, NYG
- Jack Bech, WR, LV
- Woody Marks, RB, HOU
- Jayden Higgins, WR, HOU
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